LAR · Bye 11
Terrance Ferguson
LMD TE48 rest of season · 34.0 projected Half PPR points
Reserve list (IR-R)
In season
Rest of season fantasy ranking
We project 34.0 points this season, TE48. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 6% of simulated seasons. That is 6.0 a game over 5.825 remaining games. On a reserve list (IR-R), so the season projection prices the games he misses. Up 4 since the Nov. 4 board.
Rest of season
TE48
237th by projected points
Projected
34.0
rest of season, Half PPR
Top 12
1%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 6% at TE
Movement
↑ 4
TE52 on Nov. 4, TE48 now
Half PPR scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Terrance Ferguson was ruled IR.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Terrance Ferguson's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 166.3 to 182.0 over the last 7 days.
Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Terrance Ferguson has averaged +0.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs SF | 4.1 | 0.0 | -4.1 |
| Wk 2 | vs NYG | 2.4 | 14.4 | +12.0 |
| Wk 3 | @ DEN | 7.1 | 1.4 | -5.7 |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 34.0 points this season, TE48. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 6% of simulated seasons. That is 6.0 a game over 5.825 remaining games. On a reserve list (IR-R), so the season projection prices the games he misses. Up 4 since the Nov. 4 board.
Per game
6.0 / game
Over 5.825 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 6%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Terrance Ferguson #239 in 1QB and #237 in Superflex, TE35 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#239
TE35 · tier 52 · of 300
Superflex
#237
TE35 · tier 45 · of 307
- Last season 46.6 pts 4.2 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 65% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 2.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 6% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.03
pick 170.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.05
half of simulations take him by pick 173
Draft range
14.03 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 2,777 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Terrance Ferguson.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.05 in 87% of simulations
Pick 173 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.11 and 15.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.03 | 90% |
| 15.04 | 88% |
| 15.05 | 87% |
| 15.06 | 85% |
| 15.07 | 83% |
| 15.08 | 81% |
| 15.09 | 79% |
| 15.10 | 78% |
| 15.11 | 76% |
| 15.12 | 74% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.03 | <1% | 45 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04 | <1% | 51 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05 | <1% | 47 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | <1% | 46 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | <1% | 49 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | <1% | 63 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | <1% | 44 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | <1% | 55 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | <1% | 61 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | <1% | 66 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 1% | 129 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 1% | 141 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 152 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 153 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 169 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 192 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 161 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 196 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 183 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 164 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 192 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 2777 simulations in which Terrance Ferguson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 3%
- Eddy Pineiro K · SF 3%
Usually taken just after
- Los Angeles Chargers DST · LAC 3%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
- Will Reichard K · MIN 2%
- Jalen Coker WR · CAR 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Terrance Ferguson was selected in 2777 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.