ATL · Bye 11
Kyle Pitts Sr.
LMD TE Tier 5 for Week 9 · 5.6 projected Standard points · TE19 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.6 points this week, TE Tier 5. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.6 - 11.4 points. Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 28% · Top 24: 51% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
TE Tier 5
5.2 - 5.9 projected points
Rest of season
TE19
126th by projected points
Projected
5.6
week 9, Standard
Top 12
28%
Top 3: 7% · Top 24: 51% at TE
Movement
↓ 1
TE13 in Week 8, TE14 now
Should you start Kyle Pitts Sr. in Week 9?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Kyle Pitts Sr. TE14 for Week 9, just outside the TE12 starter line. He finishes inside TE12 in 28% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.06 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.42 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.16 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight positive+0.18 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts collides with mic operator after TD, checks on her with teammate Drake London
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Kyle Pitts Sr Has a Chance to Make National Tight Ends Day Special for Falcons
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Kyle Pitts records two touchdowns in Week 6 vs. Bears
USA TODAY ·
-
Fantasy football Week 6 TE preview: Kyle Pitts and Colston Loveland remain biggest busts entering Week 6
CBS Sports ·
-
Kyle Pitts scores first touchdown of 2026
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Kyle Pitts Sr. by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games Kyle Pitts Sr. has averaged +0.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ PIT | 5.5 | 0.0 | -5.5 |
| Wk 2 | vs CAR | 4.3 | 1.5 | -2.8 |
| Wk 3 | @ GB | 4.5 | 0.5 | -4.0 |
| Wk 4 | @ NO | 4.1 | 4.7 | +0.6 |
| Wk 5 | vs BAL | 3.9 | 10.2 | +6.3 |
| Wk 6 | vs CHI | 4.6 | 18.0 | +13.4 |
| Wk 7 | vs SF | 5.3 | 8.2 | +2.9 |
| Wk 8 | @ TB | 5.5 | 0.6 | -4.9 |
| Wk 9 | vs CIN | 5.6 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE11. For the rest of the season LMD has him 8 spots lower, at TE19.
Preseason market: TE11 · ADP 120.2
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE19 −8
LMD has him 8 spots lower than his TE11 draft price.
Week 9
TE14 −3
LMD has him 3 spots lower than his TE11 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE11 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 48.7 points this season, TE19. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 22% · Top 24: 61% of simulated seasons. That is 5.6 a game over 9 remaining games.
Per game
5.6 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 22% · Top 24: 61%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Kyle Pitts Sr. #70 in 1QB and #70 in Superflex, TE6 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#70
TE6 · tier 18 · of 300
Superflex
#70
TE6 · tier 14 · of 307
- Last season 166.8 pts 9.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 19% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.03
pick 110.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.03
half of simulations take him by pick 111
Draft range
8.09 - 11.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,999 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.03 in 50% of simulations
Pick 111 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 11.10, where he is available in 8% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 10.03 50% · 11.10 8% · 12.03 4% · 13.10 <1% · 14.03 <1% · 15.10 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.05 and 10.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.01 | 55% |
| 10.02 | 53% |
| 10.03 | 50% |
| 10.04 | 48% |
| 10.05 | 45% |
| 10.06 | 42% |
| 10.07 | 40% |
| 10.08 | 37% |
| 10.09 | 34% |
| 10.10 | 31% |
| 10.11 | 29% |
| 10.12 | 26% |
| 11.01 | 24% |
| 11.02 | 22% |
| 11.03 | 20% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.09-8.10 | 3% | 321 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 4% | 355 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 4% | 393 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 4% | 408 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 5% | 482 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 5% | 453 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 5% | 538 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 6% | 585 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 5% | 530 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 5% | 537 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 6% | 550 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 5% | 526 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 5% | 506 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 4% | 397 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.04 | 4% | 405 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 3% | 325 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.08 | 3% | 262 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9999 simulations in which Kyle Pitts Sr. was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- James Conner RB · ARI 2%
- George Kittle TE · SF 2%
Usually taken just after
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 2%
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 2%
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kyle Pitts Sr. was selected in 9999 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.