ATL · Bye 11
Kyle Pitts
LMD TE21 for Week 3 · 4.3 projected Standard points · TE25 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.3 points this week, TE21. Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 40% of simulated weeks. Down 8 since Week 2.
Week 3
TE21
139th by projected points
Rest of season
TE25
182nd by projected points
Projected
4.3
week 3, Standard
Top 12
21%
Top 3: 4% · Top 24: 40% at TE
Movement
↓ 8
TE13 in Week 2, TE21 now
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+1.28 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-1.22 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.37 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. on the bench with Kyle Pitts during Sunday's loss to the Panthers.
Sports Illustrated ·
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Kyle Pitts delivers a bagel in season opener
USA TODAY ·
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ADP UPDATE
Kyle Pitts's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 94.9 to 89.0 over the last 7 days.
-
You know the Unicorn. You don’t know Falcons’ Kyle Pitts.
ajc.com ·
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Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. was the leading receiver in Atlanta's 17-12 win over the Miami Dolphins.
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Kyle Pitts by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Kyle Pitts has averaged -4.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ PIT | 5.5 | 0.0 | -5.5 |
| Wk 2 | vs CAR | 4.3 | 1.5 | -2.8 |
| Wk 3 | @ GB | 4.3 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE11. For the rest of the season LMD has him 14 spots lower, at TE25.
Preseason market: TE11 · ADP 120.2
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE25 −14
LMD has him 14 spots lower than his TE11 draft price.
Week 3
TE21 −10
LMD has him 10 spots lower than his TE11 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE11 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 58.3 points this season, TE25. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 5% · Top 24: 43% of simulated seasons. That is 4.2 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 8 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
4.2 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 5% · Top 24: 43%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Kyle Pitts #70 in 1QB and #70 in Superflex, TE6 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#70
TE6 · tier 18 · of 297
Superflex
#70
TE6 · tier 14 · of 303
- Last season 166.8 pts 9.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 19% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
10.03
pick 110.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.03
half of simulations take him by pick 111
Draft range
8.09 - 11.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.03 in 50% of simulations
Pick 111 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 11.10, where he is available in 8% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 10.03 50% · 11.10 8% · 12.03 4% · 13.10 <1% · 14.03 <1% · 15.10 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 9.05 and 10.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.01 | 55% |
| 10.02 | 53% |
| 10.03 | 50% |
| 10.04 | 48% |
| 10.05 | 45% |
| 10.06 | 42% |
| 10.07 | 40% |
| 10.08 | 37% |
| 10.09 | 34% |
| 10.10 | 31% |
| 10.11 | 29% |
| 10.12 | 26% |
| 11.01 | 24% |
| 11.02 | 22% |
| 11.03 | 20% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 8.09-8.10 | 3% | 324 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 4% | 356 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 4% | 391 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 4% | 409 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 5% | 533 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 6% | 586 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 5% | 487 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 5% | 517 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 5% | 546 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 5% | 546 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 5% | 531 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 5% | 491 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 4% | 399 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.04 | 4% | 397 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 3% | 327 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.08 | 3% | 275 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Kyle Pitts was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 2%
- James Conner RB · ARI 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- Mark Andrews TE · BAL 2%
Usually taken just after
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 2%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 2%
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kyle Pitts was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.