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TE

BUF · Bye 7

Dalton Kincaid

LMD TE Tier 5 for Week 9 · 5.8 projected Standard points · TE10 rest of season

Regular season

Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings

We project 5.8 points this week, TE Tier 5. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.8 - 11.9 points. Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 27% · Top 24: 56% of simulated weeks.

Week 9

TE Tier 5

5.2 - 5.9 projected points

Rest of season

TE10

93rd by projected points

Projected

5.8

week 9, Standard

Top 12

27%

Top 3: 7% · Top 24: 56% at TE

Movement

↓ 3

TE9 in Week 8, TE12 now

Should you start Dalton Kincaid in Week 9?

Start

Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Dalton Kincaid TE12 for Week 9, inside the TE12 starter line. He finishes inside TE12 in 27% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All TE rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Dalton Kincaid by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 7 completed games Dalton Kincaid has averaged +1.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Dalton Kincaid, Standard scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 @ HOU 3.9 13.0 +9.1
Wk 2 vs DET 4.8 15.5 +10.7
Wk 3 vs LAC 7.7 1.8 -5.9
Wk 4 vs NE 7.0 0.7 -6.3
Wk 5 @ LAR 6.3 2.7 -3.6
Wk 6 @ LV 5.7 3.8 -1.9
Wk 8 vs BAL 4.2 14.6 +10.4
Wk 9 @ MIN 5.8 — —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Draft Return

How he compares with his draft price

The draft market had him at TE14. For the rest of the season LMD has him 4 spots higher, at TE10.

Preseason market: TE14 · ADP 135.3

Season to date

Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.

Rest of season

TE10 +4

LMD has him 4 spots higher than his TE14 draft price.

Week 9

TE12 +2

LMD has him 2 spots higher than his TE14 draft price.

Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026

Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.

TE14 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.

ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator

Regular season

Why LMD has him here

We project 59.8 points this season, TE10. Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 49% · Top 24: 86% of simulated seasons. That is 5.8 a game over 9.92 remaining games. Down 1 since the Nov. 4 board.

Per game

5.8 / game

Over 9.92 remaining game(s)

Finishing odds

Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 49% · Top 24: 86%

Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE

Market input

broad

Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Dalton Kincaid #146 in 1QB and #143 in Superflex, TE15 at his position. Age 26.

1QB

#146

TE15 · tier 32 · of 300

Superflex

#143

TE15 · tier 26 · of 307

  • Last season 106.6 pts 8.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 77% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Touches 4.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty TE rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

11.08

pick 128.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

11.06

half of simulations take him by pick 126

Draft range

9.08 - 14.06

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 9,575 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams
Scoring Standard also published: Half PPR, Full PPR
QB format 1QB
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 11.06 in 54% of simulations

Pick 126 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 12.07, where he is available in 26% of simulations.

Slot 6's remaining turns: 11.06 54% · 12.07 26% · 13.06 16% · 14.07 14% · 15.06 8%

The middle half of simulations take him between 10.07 and 12.05.

Dalton Kincaid still on the board
PickAvailable
11.04 59%
11.05 56%
11.06 54%
11.07 52%
11.08 50%
11.09 47%
11.10 45%
11.11 43%
11.12 40%
12.01 38%
12.02 36%
12.03 34%
12.04 32%
12.05 30%
12.06 27%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Dalton Kincaid was selected at each pick, 9.08-9.10 through 14.05-14.06. He goes earlier than this window in 8%, later in 9%, undrafted in 4%.
Draft position distribution for Dalton Kincaid
PickShare of simulationsCount
9.08-9.104%363 of 10000 simulations
9.11-10.014%399 of 10000 simulations
10.02-10.044%437 of 10000 simulations
10.05-10.075%538 of 10000 simulations
10.08-10.106%574 of 10000 simulations
10.11-11.016%579 of 10000 simulations
11.02-11.046%626 of 10000 simulations
11.05-11.077%679 of 10000 simulations
11.08-11.107%704 of 10000 simulations
11.11-12.017%684 of 10000 simulations
12.02-12.046%610 of 10000 simulations
12.05-12.076%605 of 10000 simulations
12.08-12.105%479 of 10000 simulations
12.11-13.013%289 of 10000 simulations
13.02-13.04<1%13 of 10000 simulations
13.05-13.07<1%17 of 10000 simulations
13.08-13.10<1%22 of 10000 simulations
13.11-14.01<1%36 of 10000 simulations
14.02-14.04<1%84 of 10000 simulations
14.05-14.06<1%54 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 9575 simulations in which Dalton Kincaid was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Dalton Kincaid was selected in 9575 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
November 5, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Standard 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.