MIN · Bye 6
T.J. Hockenson
LMD TE Tier 5 for Week 9 · 5.9 projected Standard points · TE12 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.9 points this week, TE Tier 5. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.6 - 12.4 points. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 29% · Top 24: 53% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
TE Tier 5
5.2 - 5.9 projected points
Rest of season
TE12
96th by projected points
Projected
5.9
week 9, Standard
Top 12
29%
Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 53% at TE
Movement
↑ 1
TE12 in Week 8, TE11 now
Should you start T.J. Hockenson in Week 9?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks T.J. Hockenson TE11 for Week 9, inside the TE12 starter line. He finishes inside TE12 in 29% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.02 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.11 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.04 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.07 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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STATUS
T.J. Hockenson is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Aaron Jones questionable to return with knee injury, T.J. Hockenson ruled out
NBC Sports ·
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ADP UPDATE
T.J. Hockenson's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 170.4 to 139.2 over the last 7 days.
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to T.J. Hockenson by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games T.J. Hockenson has averaged +1.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs GB | 3.2 | 9.6 | +6.4 |
| Wk 2 | @ CHI | 4.0 | 2.9 | -1.1 |
| Wk 3 | @ TB | 5.2 | 1.1 | -4.1 |
| Wk 4 | vs MIA | 5.5 | 11.9 | +6.4 |
| Wk 5 | @ NO | 6.7 | 0.7 | -6.0 |
| Wk 7 | vs IND | 5.5 | 9.5 | +4.0 |
| Wk 8 | @ DET | 5.8 | 11.8 | +6.0 |
| Wk 9 | vs BUF | 5.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 58.8 points this season, TE12. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 47% · Top 24: 84% of simulated seasons. That is 5.9 a game over 10.013 remaining games.
Per game
5.9 / game
Over 10.013 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 47% · Top 24: 84%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has T.J. Hockenson #227 in 1QB and #231 in Superflex, TE32 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#227
TE32 · tier 50 · of 300
Superflex
#231
TE32 · tier 43 · of 307
- Last season 87.3 pts 5.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 79% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 18% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.03
pick 171.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.05
half of simulations take him by pick 173
Draft range
14.05 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 2,923 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.05 in 86% of simulations
Pick 173 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.01 and 15.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.03 | 89% |
| 15.04 | 88% |
| 15.05 | 86% |
| 15.06 | 84% |
| 15.07 | 82% |
| 15.08 | 80% |
| 15.09 | 78% |
| 15.10 | 77% |
| 15.11 | 75% |
| 15.12 | 73% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.05 | <1% | 49 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | <1% | 46 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | <1% | 59 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | <1% | 48 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | <1% | 65 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | <1% | 44 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | <1% | 63 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | <1% | 64 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 2% | 177 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 2% | 184 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 169 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 172 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 203 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 201 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 179 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 173 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 190 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 184 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 183 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 2923 simulations in which T.J. Hockenson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Will Reichard K · MIN 4%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
- Eddy Pineiro K · SF 3%
Usually taken just after
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
- Will Reichard K · MIN 3%
- Los Angeles Chargers DST · LAC 3%
- Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
T.J. Hockenson was selected in 2923 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.