JAX · Bye 7
Brenton Strange
LMD TE Tier 5 for Week 9 · 5.3 projected Standard points · TE14 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 5.3 points this week, TE Tier 5. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.5 - 11.3 points. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 24% · Top 24: 49% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
TE Tier 5
5.2 - 5.9 projected points
Rest of season
TE14
111th by projected points
Projected
5.3
week 9, Standard
Top 12
24%
Top 3: 6% · Top 24: 49% at TE
Movement
↓ 7
TE10 in Week 8, TE17 now
Should you start Brenton Strange in Week 9?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Brenton Strange TE17 for Week 9, just outside the TE12 starter line. He finishes inside TE12 in 24% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.02 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.10 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.08 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.27 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Brenton Strange has averaged +1.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CLE | 3.4 | 8.3 | +4.9 |
| Wk 2 | @ DEN | 3.2 | 1.7 | -1.5 |
| Wk 3 | vs NE | 3.4 | 3.2 | -0.2 |
| Wk 4 | @ CIN | 4.9 | 9.5 | +4.6 |
| Wk 5 | vs PHI | 5.3 | 6.8 | +1.5 |
| Wk 6 | vs HOU | 6.0 | 4.4 | -1.6 |
| Wk 8 | vs IND | 6.0 | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| Wk 9 | @ BAL | 5.3 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 53.7 points this season, TE14. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 34% · Top 24: 74% of simulated seasons. That is 5.4 a game over 10.079 remaining games.
Per game
5.4 / game
Over 10.079 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 34% · Top 24: 74%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Brenton Strange #220 in 1QB and #221 in Superflex, TE31 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#220
TE31 · tier 48 · of 300
Superflex
#221
TE31 · tier 40 · of 307
- Last season 95.0 pts 7.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 68% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.05
pick 137.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.12
half of simulations take him by pick 132
Draft range
11.01 - 15.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,183 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.12 in 57% of simulations
Pick 132 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 12.01, where he is available in 53% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 11.12 57% · 12.01 53% · 13.12 23% · 14.01 23% · 15.12 9%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.06 and 12.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.10 | 64% |
| 11.11 | 60% |
| 11.12 | 57% |
| 12.01 | 53% |
| 12.02 | 50% |
| 12.03 | 47% |
| 12.04 | 44% |
| 12.05 | 41% |
| 12.06 | 39% |
| 12.07 | 36% |
| 12.08 | 34% |
| 12.09 | 31% |
| 12.10 | 30% |
| 12.11 | 28% |
| 12.12 | 25% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 11.01-11.03 | 9% | 905 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.06 | 10% | 951 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.09 | 10% | 982 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.12 | 11% | 1072 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.03 | 9% | 907 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.06 | 8% | 781 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.09 | 7% | 676 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.12 | 6% | 602 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.03 | <1% | 18 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.06 | <1% | 16 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.09 | <1% | 21 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.12 | <1% | 44 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.03 | <1% | 69 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.06 | <1% | 85 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.09 | <1% | 95 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.12 | 1% | 112 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 2% | 192 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9183 simulations in which Brenton Strange was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 3%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 3%
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 2%
- Kenyon Sadiq TE · NYJ 2%
Usually taken just after
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 3%
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 3%
- Kenyon Sadiq TE · NYJ 3%
- Woody Marks RB · HOU 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Brenton Strange was selected in 9183 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.