JAX · Bye 7
Brenton Strange
LMD TE27 for Week 3 · 3.3 projected Standard points · TE37 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 3.3 points this week, TE27. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 14% · Top 24: 28% of simulated weeks. Up 1 since Week 2.
Week 3
TE27
193rd by projected points
Rest of season
TE37
240th by projected points
Projected
3.3
week 3, Standard
Top 12
14%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 28% at TE
Movement
↑ 1
TE28 in Week 2, TE27 now
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.09 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.26 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.31 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Brenton Strange has averaged +1.7 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CLE | 3.4 | 8.3 | +4.9 |
| Wk 2 | @ DEN | 3.2 | 1.7 | -1.5 |
| Wk 3 | vs NE | 3.3 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 44.9 points this season, TE37. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 12% of simulated seasons. That is 3.3 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 14 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
3.3 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 12%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Brenton Strange #220 in 1QB and #221 in Superflex, TE32 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#220
TE32 · tier 48 · of 297
Superflex
#221
TE32 · tier 40 · of 303
- Last season 95.0 pts 7.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 68% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 12% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.05
pick 137.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.12
half of simulations take him by pick 132
Draft range
11.01 - 15.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,210 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.12 in 57% of simulations
Pick 132 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 12, the same seat picks again at 12.01, where he is available in 53% of simulations.
Slot 12's remaining turns: 11.12 57% · 12.01 53% · 13.12 23% · 14.01 22% · 15.12 9%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.06 and 12.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.10 | 64% |
| 11.11 | 60% |
| 11.12 | 57% |
| 12.01 | 53% |
| 12.02 | 50% |
| 12.03 | 47% |
| 12.04 | 44% |
| 12.05 | 42% |
| 12.06 | 39% |
| 12.07 | 36% |
| 12.08 | 34% |
| 12.09 | 31% |
| 12.10 | 29% |
| 12.11 | 27% |
| 12.12 | 25% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 11.01-11.03 | 9% | 906 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.06 | 9% | 938 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.09 | 10% | 976 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.12 | 11% | 1067 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.03 | 9% | 916 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.06 | 8% | 782 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.09 | 7% | 693 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.12 | 6% | 604 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.03 | <1% | 13 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.06 | <1% | 15 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.09 | <1% | 15 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.12 | <1% | 43 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.03 | <1% | 71 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.06 | <1% | 76 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.09 | 1% | 102 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.12 | 1% | 115 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 2% | 195 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9210 simulations in which Brenton Strange was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 3%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 3%
- Kenyon Sadiq TE · NYJ 2%
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 2%
Usually taken just after
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 3%
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 3%
- Kenyon Sadiq TE · NYJ 3%
- Woody Marks RB · HOU 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Brenton Strange was selected in 9210 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.