NO · Bye 8
Juwan Johnson
LMD TE Tier 6 for Week 9 · 4.8 projected Standard points · TE17 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.8 points this week, TE Tier 6. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.3 - 10.4 points. Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 23% · Top 24: 42% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
TE Tier 6
4.4 - 5.1 projected points
Rest of season
TE17
123rd by projected points
Projected
4.8
week 9, Standard
Top 12
23%
Top 3: 5% · Top 24: 42% at TE
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at TE in Week 8
Should you start Juwan Johnson in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Juwan Johnson TE22 for Week 9, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 23% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.05 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.16 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.12 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.02 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Juwan Johnson limited to just one catch in Week 7
USA TODAY ·
-
Juwan Johnson held off stat sheet in Week 6
USA TODAY ·
-
Juwan Johnson accrues four receptions
USA TODAY ·
-
Juwan Johnson collects six catches in Week 4
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Fantasy football start or sit Week 4: Devaughn Vele, Tyler Shough, Juwan Johnson
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Juwan Johnson by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 7 completed games Juwan Johnson has averaged +0.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ DET | 3.1 | 11.4 | +8.3 |
| Wk 2 | @ BAL | 4.4 | 6.6 | +2.2 |
| Wk 3 | vs LV | 5.9 | 15.3 | +9.4 |
| Wk 4 | vs ATL | 6.3 | 5.9 | -0.4 |
| Wk 5 | vs MIN | 6.3 | 1.6 | -4.7 |
| Wk 6 | @ NYG | 6.9 | 0.0 | -6.9 |
| Wk 7 | vs PIT | 5.1 | 0.7 | -4.4 |
| Wk 9 | vs CLE | 4.8 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 50.3 points this season, TE17. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 26% · Top 24: 67% of simulated seasons. That is 4.9 a game over 10.274 remaining games.
Per game
4.9 / game
Over 10.274 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 26% · Top 24: 67%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Juwan Johnson #174 in 1QB and #170 in Superflex, TE22 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#174
TE22 · tier 39 · of 300
Superflex
#170
TE22 · tier 32 · of 307
- Last season 141.4 pts 8.3 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.2 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 16% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.03
pick 134.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.11
half of simulations take him by pick 131
Draft range
10.11 - 14.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,347 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.11 in 55% of simulations
Pick 131 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 12.02, where he is available in 45% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 11.11 55% · 12.02 45% · 13.11 19% · 14.02 19% · 15.11 8%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.04 and 12.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.09 | 61% |
| 11.10 | 58% |
| 11.11 | 55% |
| 11.12 | 51% |
| 12.01 | 48% |
| 12.02 | 45% |
| 12.03 | 42% |
| 12.04 | 40% |
| 12.05 | 37% |
| 12.06 | 34% |
| 12.07 | 32% |
| 12.08 | 30% |
| 12.09 | 28% |
| 12.10 | 26% |
| 12.11 | 24% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.11-11.01 | 9% | 921 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.02-11.04 | 9% | 919 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.07 | 9% | 933 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.10 | 10% | 966 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-12.01 | 9% | 909 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.04 | 9% | 858 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.07 | 7% | 710 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.10 | 6% | 619 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-13.01 | 4% | 369 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.04 | <1% | 14 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.07 | <1% | 18 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.10 | <1% | 23 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-14.01 | <1% | 48 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.04 | <1% | 87 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.07 | <1% | 81 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.10 | <1% | 75 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | <1% | 62 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9347 simulations in which Juwan Johnson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 3%
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 3%
- Brenton Strange TE · JAX 3%
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 3%
Usually taken just after
- Travis Kelce TE · KC 3%
- Brenton Strange TE · JAX 3%
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 3%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Juwan Johnson was selected in 9347 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.