LAR · Bye 11
Colby Parkinson
LMD TE44 for Week 3 · 2.4 projected Standard points · TE50 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 2.4 points this week, TE44. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 17% of simulated weeks. Down 10 since Week 2.
Week 3
TE44
228th by projected points
Rest of season
TE50
271st by projected points
Projected
2.4
week 3, Standard
Top 12
9%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 17% at TE
Movement
↓ 10
TE34 in Week 2, TE44 now
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.14 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.14 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.01 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Colby Parkinson has averaged -0.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs SF | 1.9 | 0.6 | -1.3 |
| Wk 2 | vs NYG | 1.9 | 1.5 | -0.4 |
| Wk 3 | @ DEN | 2.4 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 36.1 points this season, TE50. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3% of simulated seasons. That is 2.5 a game over 15 remaining games.
Per game
2.5 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 3%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Colby Parkinson #235 in 1QB and #235 in Superflex, TE35 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#235
TE35 · tier 52 · of 297
Superflex
#235
TE35 · tier 45 · of 303
- Last season 108.3 pts 7.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 87% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.4 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 10% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.08
pick 176.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.08
half of simulations take him by pick 176
Draft range
15.04 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 1,402 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.08 in 94% of simulations
Pick 176 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.06 and 15.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.06 | 97% |
| 15.07 | 96% |
| 15.08 | 94% |
| 15.09 | 93% |
| 15.10 | 91% |
| 15.11 | 89% |
| 15.12 | 88% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | <1% | 49 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | <1% | 74 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 1% | 104 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 1% | 141 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 165 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 162 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 164 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 159 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 166 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 173 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 1402 simulations in which Colby Parkinson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Isaiah Likely TE · NYG 3%
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 3%
- Braelon Allen RB · NYJ 3%
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 3%
Usually taken just after
- Harrison Butker K · KC 4%
- Braelon Allen RB · NYJ 3%
- Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 3%
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Colby Parkinson was selected in 1402 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.