GB · Bye 11
Tucker Kraft
LMD TE Tier 4 for Week 9 · 6.3 projected Standard points · TE11 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.3 points this week, TE Tier 4. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 1.9 - 12.8 points. Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 31% · Top 24: 60% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
TE Tier 4
6.3 - 6.9 projected points
Rest of season
TE11
95th by projected points
Projected
6.3
week 9, Standard
Top 12
31%
Top 3: 9% · Top 24: 60% at TE
Movement
↓ 4
TE6 in Week 8, TE10 now
Should you start Tucker Kraft in Week 9?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Tucker Kraft TE10 for Week 9, inside the TE12 starter line. He finishes inside TE12 in 31% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.01 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.18 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.11 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.40 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
George Kittle & Tucker Kraft Headline Week 9 Fantasy Football Must-Start Tight Ends
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Lions DB Brian Branch fined for hit against Packers TE Tucker Kraft
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Packers' Tucker Kraft still optimistic after tough loss to Lions
yardbarker.com ·
-
Packers tight end Tucker Kraft goes to blue medical tent after hit
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Tucker Kraft injury update as Packers TE leaves 'SNF' vs Cowboys
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Tucker Kraft by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games Tucker Kraft has averaged +0.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ MIN | 4.3 | 6.5 | +2.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ NYJ | 5.3 | 1.5 | -3.8 |
| Wk 3 | vs ATL | 5.5 | 2.6 | -2.9 |
| Wk 4 | @ TB | 5.6 | 10.5 | +4.9 |
| Wk 5 | vs CHI | 6.4 | 6.6 | +0.2 |
| Wk 6 | vs DAL | 7.0 | 3.7 | -3.3 |
| Wk 7 | @ DET | 7.0 | 10.8 | +3.8 |
| Wk 8 | vs CAR | 6.4 | 11.3 | +4.9 |
| Wk 9 | @ NE | 6.3 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE5. For the rest of the season LMD has him 6 spots lower, at TE11.
Preseason market: TE5 · ADP 86.8
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE11 −6
LMD has him 6 spots lower than his TE5 draft price.
Week 9
TE10 −5
LMD has him 5 spots lower than his TE5 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE5 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 59.0 points this season, TE11. Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 47% · Top 24: 85% of simulated seasons. That is 6.4 a game over 9 remaining games.
Per game
6.4 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 47% · Top 24: 85%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Tucker Kraft #136 in 1QB and #133 in Superflex, TE13 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#136
TE13 · tier 30 · of 300
Superflex
#133
TE13 · tier 24 · of 307
- Last season 101.2 pts 12.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 70% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.7 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 16% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.02
pick 86.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.02
half of simulations take him by pick 86
Draft range
6.10 - 9.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.02 in 51% of simulations
Pick 86 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 9.11, where he is available in 6% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 8.02 51% · 9.11 6% · 10.02 4% · 11.11 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.05 and 8.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.12 | 57% |
| 8.01 | 54% |
| 8.02 | 51% |
| 8.03 | 48% |
| 8.04 | 44% |
| 8.05 | 42% |
| 8.06 | 39% |
| 8.07 | 36% |
| 8.08 | 33% |
| 8.09 | 30% |
| 8.10 | 28% |
| 8.11 | 25% |
| 8.12 | 23% |
| 9.01 | 21% |
| 9.02 | 19% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.10-6.11 | 4% | 400 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12-7.01 | 4% | 375 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02-7.03 | 5% | 463 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 5% | 479 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 5% | 522 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 5% | 539 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 6% | 575 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 6% | 599 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 7% | 655 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 6% | 591 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 6% | 559 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 5% | 510 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 5% | 471 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 4% | 381 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 4% | 380 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 3% | 316 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 3% | 295 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Tucker Kraft was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Sam LaPorta TE · DET 3%
- Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE 2%
- Matthew Stafford QB · LAR 2%
- Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 2%
Usually taken just after
- Sam LaPorta TE · DET 3%
- Matthew Stafford QB · LAR 2%
- Tyler Warren TE · IND 2%
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Tucker Kraft was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.