KC · Bye 5
Travis Kelce
LMD TE2 for Week 3 · 7.9 projected Standard points · TE3 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 7.9 points this week, TE2. Top 3: 17% · Top 12: 42% · Top 24: 73% of simulated weeks. Up 9 since Week 2.
Week 3
TE2
46th by projected points
Rest of season
TE3
53rd by projected points
Projected
7.9
week 3, Standard
Top 12
42%
Top 3: 17% · Top 24: 73% at TE
Movement
↑ 9
TE11 in Week 2, TE2 now
- Draft / market prior
- Strong negative-2.06 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+1.54 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.02 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Taylor Swift gets credit for Travis Kelce resurgence from Chiefs’ Andy Reid
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Taylor Swift And Travis Kelce Reportedly Adjust To Separate Schedules
sports.ndtv.com ·
-
Taylor Swift Points to Her Wedding Ring After Travis Kelce Scores His First Touchdown of the Season
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Taylor Swift has savage celebration after Travis Kelce scores first touchdown of 2026 season
foxnews.com ·
-
Taylor Swift gesture spotted as she excitedly celebrates Travis Kelce touchdown in luxury suite
themirror.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Travis Kelce by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Travis Kelce has averaged +7.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DEN | 4.3 | 7.1 | +2.8 |
| Wk 2 | vs IND | 4.8 | 16.1 | +11.3 |
| Wk 3 | @ MIA | 7.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE15. For the rest of the season LMD has him 12 spots higher, at TE3.
Preseason market: TE15 · ADP 140.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE3 +12
LMD has him 12 spots higher than his TE15 draft price.
Week 3
TE2 +13
LMD has him 13 spots higher than his TE15 draft price.
Standard scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE15 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 115.5 points this season, TE3. Top 3: 34% · Top 12: 90% · Top 24: 99% of simulated seasons. That is 7.7 a game over 15 remaining games. Up 8 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
7.7 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 34% · Top 12: 90% · Top 24: 99%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Travis Kelce #141 in 1QB and #137 in Superflex, TE14 at his position. Age 36.
1QB
#141
TE14 · tier 31 · of 297
Superflex
#137
TE14 · tier 24 · of 303
- Last season 155.2 pts 9.1 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 96% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 7.3 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 21% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.06
pick 137.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.02
half of simulations take him by pick 134
Draft range
10.12 - 15.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,473 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.02 in 54% of simulations
Pick 134 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 13.11, where he is available in 22% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 12.02 54% · 13.11 22% · 14.02 21% · 15.11 7%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.07 and 12.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.12 | 62% |
| 12.01 | 58% |
| 12.02 | 54% |
| 12.03 | 50% |
| 12.04 | 47% |
| 12.05 | 44% |
| 12.06 | 41% |
| 12.07 | 38% |
| 12.08 | 35% |
| 12.09 | 33% |
| 12.10 | 30% |
| 12.11 | 27% |
| 12.12 | 25% |
| 13.01 | 23% |
| 13.02 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.12-11.02 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.05 | 6% | 635 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.08 | 8% | 839 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.11 | 11% | 1084 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.02 | 12% | 1181 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.05 | 10% | 950 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.08 | 8% | 804 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.11 | 8% | 770 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.02 | 2% | 236 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.05 | <1% | 25 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.08 | <1% | 20 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.11 | <1% | 41 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.02 | <1% | 70 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.05 | 1% | 108 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.08 | 1% | 109 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.11 | 2% | 151 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.02 | 3% | 276 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9473 simulations in which Travis Kelce was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 3%
- Kenyon Sadiq TE · NYJ 3%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 3%
- Brenton Strange TE · JAX 3%
Usually taken just after
- Juwan Johnson TE · NO 3%
- Zach Charbonnet RB · SEA 2%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
- Woody Marks RB · HOU 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Travis Kelce was selected in 9473 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.