NFL · 2026 Week 1

2026 Week 1 TE Rankings

Final pre-kickoff board · published September 9, 2026, 18:40 UTC · first kickoff September 10, 2026, 00:20 UTC

Full PPR, 1QB · 45 players projected · updated September 9, 2026

Week 1 starts from preseason projections and draft position, with current availability and market signals layered in.

How these rankings work

How these rankings are built

We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.

We then update those expectations for Week 1 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.

We then simulate the week 4,000 times and rank players by the projected fantasy points those simulations produce.

This board is priced in Full PPR. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.

What the percentages mean

For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.

Top 3: how often he finishes among the top three at his position
Top 12: how often he finishes in the top 12
Top 24: how often he finishes in the top 24

A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.

What stood out in Week 1

45 TEs ranked for Week 1. Trey McBride leads at 13.8 projected points.

Tier break

2.5 projected points separate TE2 Brock Bowers from TE3 Colston Loveland.

Biggest differences from the draft market

Ahead

Mark AndrewsTE10Sportsbooks pricing him above our baselineTop 3: 10% · Top 12: 35% · Top 24: 63% +4 vs. TE14

Behind

Noah GrayTE45Our projection is lower than the outside forecast -14 vs. TE31
Kenyon SadiqTE30Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 2% · Top 12: 12% · Top 24: 26% -11 vs. TE19
Dawson KnoxTE37Our projection is lower than the outside forecast -10 vs. TE27

2026 Week 1 TE Rankings -- Full PPR scoring: projected fantasy points and the share of simulated weeks finishing top 3, top 12 and top 24 at the position. From our own statistical and market model, not analyst consensus.
#	Pos	Player	Pos rank	Proj	Outcome profile	Top 3	Top 12	Top 24
1	TE	Trey McBrideARI Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 31% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 12%. Top 3: 31%Top 12: 65%Top 24: 88%	TE1	13.8	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 31% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 12%.	31%	65%	88%
2	TE	Brock BowersLV Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 32% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 13%. Top 3: 32%Top 12: 65%Top 24: 87%	TE2	13.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 32% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 13%.	32%	65%	87%
3	TE	Colston LovelandCHI Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 21% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 18%. Top 3: 21%Top 12: 55%Top 24: 82%	TE3	11.1	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 21% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 18%.	21%	55%	82%
4	TE	Tyler WarrenINDQQuestionable Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 26%. Top 3: 20%Top 12: 50%Top 24: 74%	TE4	10.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 26%.	20%	50%	74%
5	TE	Kyle PittsATL Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 17% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 24%. Top 3: 17%Top 12: 48%Top 24: 76%	TE5	9.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 17% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 24%.	17%	48%	76%
6	TE	Harold Fannin Jr.CLE Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 31%. Top 3: 13%Top 12: 40%Top 24: 69%	TE6	8.4	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 31%.	13%	40%	69%
7	TE	Sam LaPortaDETQQuestionable Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 36%. Top 3: 14%Top 12: 39%Top 24: 64%	TE7	8.3	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 36%.	14%	39%	64%
8	TE	George KittleSFQQuestionable Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 36%. Top 3: 13%Top 12: 39%Top 24: 64%	TE8	8.3	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 36%.	13%	39%	64%
9	TE	Dallas GoedertPHI Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 35%. Top 3: 11%Top 12: 38%Top 24: 65%	TE9	7.8	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 35%.	11%	38%	65%
10	TE	Mark AndrewsBAL Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 37%. Top 3: 10%Top 12: 35%Top 24: 63%	TE10	7.4	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 37%.	10%	35%	63%
11	TE	Jake FergusonDAL Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 39%. Top 3: 9%Top 12: 34%Top 24: 61%	TE11	7.3	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 39%.	9%	34%	61%
12	TE	Tucker KraftGBQQuestionable Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 43%. Top 3: 9%Top 12: 32%Top 24: 57%	TE12	7.1	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 43%.	9%	32%	57%
13	TE	Isaiah LikelyNYG Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 40%. Top 3: 8%Top 12: 31%Top 24: 60%	TE13	6.8	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 40%.	8%	31%	60%
14	TE	Dalton KincaidBUF Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 41%. Top 3: 7%Top 12: 30%Top 24: 59%	TE14	6.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 41%.	7%	30%	59%
15	TE	Travis KelceKC Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 43%. Top 3: 7%Top 12: 30%Top 24: 57%	TE15	6.4	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 43%.	7%	30%	57%
16	TE	Hunter HenryNE Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 46%. Top 3: 7%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 54%	TE16	6.3	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 46%.	7%	27%	54%
17	TE	T.J. HockensonMIN Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 46%. Top 3: 6%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 54%	TE17	6.2	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 46%.	6%	27%	54%
18	TE	Brenton StrangeJAX Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 47%. Top 3: 5%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 53%	TE18	5.9	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 47%.	5%	26%	53%
19	TE	Dalton SchultzHOU Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 48%. Top 3: 6%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 52%	TE19	5.9	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 48%.	6%	24%	52%
20	TE	Juwan JohnsonNO Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 50%. Top 3: 5%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 50%	TE20	5.7	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 50%.	5%	23%	50%
21	TE	Pat FreiermuthPIT Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 54%. Top 3: 4%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 46%	TE21	5.2	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 54%.	4%	21%	46%
22	TE	Terrance FergusonLAR Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 60%. Top 3: 4%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 41%	TE22	4.9	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 60%.	4%	19%	41%
23	TE	AJ BarnerSEA Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 60%. Top 3: 4%Top 12: 18%Top 24: 40%	TE23	4.8	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 60%.	4%	18%	40%
24	TE	Gunnar HelmTEN Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 61%. Top 3: 3%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 39%	TE24	4.7	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 61%.	3%	17%	39%
25	TE	Greg DulcichMIA Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 59%. Top 3: 3%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 41%	TE25	4.7	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 59%.	3%	17%	41%
26	TE	Chig OkonkwoWAS Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 59%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 41%	TE26	4.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 59%.	2%	16%	41%
27	TE	Cade OttonTB Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 68%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 32%	TE27	3.9	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 68%.	2%	12%	32%
28	TE	Mike GesickiCIN Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 70%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 30%	TE28	3.9	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 70%.	2%	13%	30%
29	TE	Michael MayerLV Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 72%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 28%	TE29	3.7	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 72%.	2%	11%	28%
30	TE	Kenyon SadiqNYJQQuestionable Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 74%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 26%	TE30	3.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 74%.	2%	12%	26%
31	TE	Mason TaylorNYJ Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 73%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 27%	TE31	3.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 73%.	2%	10%	27%
32	TE	Darren WallerCAR Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 75%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 25%	TE32	3.4	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 75%.	2%	11%	25%
33	TE	David NjokuLAC Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 76%. Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 24%	TE33	3.4	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 76%.	2%	12%	24%
34	TE	Darnell WashingtonPIT Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 76%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 24%	TE34	3.3	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 76%.	1%	10%	24%
35	TE	Colby ParkinsonLAR Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 76%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 24%	TE35	3.3	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 76%.	1%	10%	24%
36	TE	Evan EngramDEN Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 81%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 19%	TE36	3.0	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 81%.	1%	8%	19%
37	TE	Dawson KnoxBUF Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 80%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 20%	TE37	3.0	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 80%.	1%	8%	20%
38	TE	Cole KmetCHI Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 82%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 18%	TE38	2.8	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 82%.	1%	7%	18%
39	TE	Oronde Gadsden IILAC Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 85%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 15%	TE39	2.6	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 85%.	1%	7%	15%
40	TE	Charlie KolarLAC Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 13%	TE40	2.4	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%.	0%	5%	13%
41	TE	Tommy TrembleCAR Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 13%	TE41	2.4	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%.	1%	5%	13%
42	TE	Tyler HigbeeLAR Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 13%	TE42	2.4	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%.	1%	6%	13%
43	TE	Elijah ArroyoSEA Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 12%	TE43	2.3	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%.	1%	5%	12%
44	TE	Erick AllCIN Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 13%	TE44	2.3	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%.	0%	5%	13%
45	TE	Noah GrayKC Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 11%	TE45	2.2	Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%.	0%	4%	11%

How these are made

This board was built from draft position for 100%, an outside projection for 64%, sportsbook props for 30%, an official status for 85%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Full PPR, 1QB.

Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured September 9, 2026 18:39 UTC. Model rankings-v1.3.0, board captured 2026-09-09.

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); Polymarket (prediction-market prices); The Odds API (player props).

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