BAL · Bye 13
Mark Andrews
LMD TE10 for Week 3 · 6.1 projected Standard points · TE11 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.1 points this week, TE10. Top 3: 11% · Top 12: 32% · Top 24: 60% of simulated weeks. Up 6 since Week 2.
Week 3
TE10
98th by projected points
Rest of season
TE11
105th by projected points
Projected
6.1
week 3, Standard
Top 12
32%
Top 3: 11% · Top 24: 60% at TE
Movement
↑ 6
TE16 in Week 2, TE10 now
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-1.07 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.53 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.07 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Mark Andrews catches six passes in Week 2
USA TODAY ·
-
Mark Andrews settles for four catches in Week 1
USA TODAY ·
-
ADP UPDATE
Mark Andrews's ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator moved from 133.1 to 124.5 over the last 7 days.
-
Mark Andrews Fantasy Prediction 2026: A Strong Fade Even If You Punt Tight End
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Mark Andrews by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Draft-position figures are measured, and name the market they came from.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Mark Andrews has averaged +0.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ IND | 4.5 | 4.9 | +0.4 |
| Wk 2 | vs NO | 4.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 |
| Wk 3 | @ DAL | 6.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 89.9 points this season, TE11. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 56% · Top 24: 95% of simulated seasons. That is 6.1 a game over 15 remaining games. Down 1 since the Sept. 20 board.
Per game
6.1 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 56% · Top 24: 95%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Mark Andrews #181 in 1QB and #176 in Superflex, TE23 at his position. Age 30.
1QB
#181
TE23 · tier 40 · of 297
Superflex
#176
TE23 · tier 33 · of 303
- Last season 107.0 pts 6.3 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.01
pick 121 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.11
half of simulations take him by pick 119
Draft range
9.09 - 12.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,913 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.11 in 52% of simulations
Pick 119 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 11.02, where he is available in 43% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 10.11 52% · 11.02 43% · 12.11 6% · 13.02 5% · 14.11 3% · 15.02 3%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.02 and 11.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.09 | 58% |
| 10.10 | 54% |
| 10.11 | 52% |
| 10.12 | 49% |
| 11.01 | 46% |
| 11.02 | 43% |
| 11.03 | 41% |
| 11.04 | 38% |
| 11.05 | 36% |
| 11.06 | 33% |
| 11.07 | 31% |
| 11.08 | 29% |
| 11.09 | 27% |
| 11.10 | 24% |
| 11.11 | 22% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.09-9.10 | 5% | 537 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 6% | 569 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 6% | 580 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 5% | 541 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 6% | 576 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 6% | 595 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 6% | 576 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 6% | 581 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 5% | 511 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.04 | 5% | 475 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 5% | 499 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.08 | 5% | 454 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.10 | 5% | 474 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-11.12 | 4% | 413 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.02 | 3% | 333 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.04 | 3% | 279 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05 | 1% | 145 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9913 simulations in which Mark Andrews was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 3%
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 2%
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 2%
- Aaron Jones RB · MIN 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 3%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
- Kyle Pitts TE · ATL 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Mark Andrews was selected in 9913 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.