BAL · Bye 13
Mark Andrews
LMD TE Tier 7 for Week 9 · 3.4 projected Standard points · TE39 rest of season
Regular season
Week 9 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 3.4 points this week, TE Tier 7. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 0.9 - 8.3 points. Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 13% · Top 24: 26% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
TE Tier 7
3.3 - 3.8 projected points
Rest of season
TE39
205th by projected points
Projected
3.4
week 9, Standard
Top 12
13%
Top 3: 3% · Top 24: 26% at TE
Movement
↓ 15
TE17 in Week 8, TE32 now
Should you start Mark Andrews in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Mark Andrews TE32 for Week 9, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 13% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
TE32 vs TE15 -17
LMD has him TE32. The fantasy draft market has him TE15, 17 places higher.
Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline and recent usage below his season baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.14 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.05 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.83 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Standard scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Mark Andrews full participates on Monday
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Mark Andrews fully practices Thursday
lufkindailynews.com ·
-
Mark Andrews posts another full practice
USA TODAY ·
-
Declan Doyle stands by Mark Andrews after a mistake-filled performance
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Isaiah Likely emerging as Giants star after years in Mark Andrews’ shadow
nypost.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Mark Andrews by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 8 completed games Mark Andrews has averaged -2.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ IND | 4.5 | 4.9 | +0.4 |
| Wk 2 | vs NO | 4.9 | 4.9 | 0.0 |
| Wk 3 | @ DAL | 5.9 | 2.4 | -3.5 |
| Wk 4 | vs TEN | 6.2 | 8.7 | +2.5 |
| Wk 5 | @ ATL | 5.0 | 0.8 | -4.2 |
| Wk 6 | @ CLE | 5.9 | 0.4 | -5.5 |
| Wk 7 | vs CIN | 4.6 | 2.3 | -2.3 |
| Wk 8 | @ BUF | 4.8 | 1.4 | -3.4 |
| Wk 9 | vs JAX | 3.4 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 30.7 points this season, TE39. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 12% of simulated seasons. That is 3.4 a game over 9 remaining games.
Per game
3.4 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 12%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
broad
Broad market coverage across several venues and markets.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 5, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Mark Andrews #181 in 1QB and #176 in Superflex, TE23 at his position. Age 30.
1QB
#181
TE23 · tier 40 · of 300
Superflex
#176
TE23 · tier 33 · of 307
- Last season 107.0 pts 6.3 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.9 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 17% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.01
pick 121.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
10.11
half of simulations take him by pick 119
Draft range
9.09 - 12.05
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,914 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 10.11 in 52% of simulations
Pick 119 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 11.02, where he is available in 43% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 10.11 52% · 11.02 43% · 12.11 6% · 13.02 5% · 14.11 3% · 15.02 3%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.02 and 11.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 10.09 | 58% |
| 10.10 | 54% |
| 10.11 | 52% |
| 10.12 | 49% |
| 11.01 | 46% |
| 11.02 | 43% |
| 11.03 | 41% |
| 11.04 | 38% |
| 11.05 | 36% |
| 11.06 | 34% |
| 11.07 | 31% |
| 11.08 | 29% |
| 11.09 | 27% |
| 11.10 | 24% |
| 11.11 | 22% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.09-9.10 | 5% | 536 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 6% | 572 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 6% | 572 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 5% | 537 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 6% | 581 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 6% | 598 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 6% | 577 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 6% | 581 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.02 | 5% | 503 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.04 | 5% | 478 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.05-11.06 | 5% | 500 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.08 | 5% | 458 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.10 | 5% | 480 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-11.12 | 4% | 416 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.02 | 3% | 324 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.04 | 3% | 269 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05 | 1% | 140 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9914 simulations in which Mark Andrews was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 3%
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 3%
- Hunter Henry TE · NE 2%
- Aaron Jones Sr. RB · MIN 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jake Ferguson TE · DAL 3%
- Dallas Goedert TE · PHI 2%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
- Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Standard 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Mark Andrews was selected in 9914 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of November 5, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-11-05)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.