NFL · 2026 Week 2

2026 Week 2 QB Rankings

Final pre-kickoff board · published September 17, 2026, 19:05 UTC · first kickoff September 18, 2026, 00:15 UTC

Full PPR, 1QB · 98 players projected · updated September 17, 2026

See how these rankings performed

View current weekly rankings

No earlier market snapshot, so no market movement is shown.

How these rankings work

How these rankings are built

We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.

We then update those expectations for Week 2 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.

We then simulate the week 4,000 times and rank players by the projected fantasy points those simulations produce.

This board is priced in Full PPR. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.

What the percentages mean

For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.

Top 3
how often he finishes among the top three at his position
Top 12
how often he finishes in the top 12
Top 24
how often he finishes in the top 24

A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.

How often a strong start lasts

Since 1999, 50% of QBs inside the top 12 through Week 1 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 325 QB-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.

What stood out in Week 2

98 QBs ranked for Week 2. Josh Allen leads at 26.2 projected points.

Tier breaks

2.0 projected points separate QB1 Josh Allen from QB2 Lamar Jackson.

2.3 projected points separate QB2 Lamar Jackson from QB3 Jayden Daniels.

Biggest differences from the draft market

Behind

  • Matthew StaffordQB19Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 4% · Top 12: 23% · Top 24: 47% -5 vs. QB14

Movement

Risers

  • Drew LockQB29Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 29% ↑ 61
  • Carson WentzQB27Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 13% · Top 24: 31% ↑ 34
  • Bryce YoungQB16Top 3: 5% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 49% ↑ 9

Fallers

Positional movement since the final Week 1 board, among players inside QB30 either week. Players not ranked at their position then are excluded.

2026 Week 2 QB Rankings -- Full PPR scoring: projected fantasy points and the share of simulated weeks finishing top 3, top 12 and top 24 at the position. From our own statistical and market model, not analyst consensus.
# Pos Player Pos rank Proj
1 QB Josh AllenBUF
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 34% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB6 at the median, QB2 - QB14 in the middle half, and QB1 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 34%Top 12: 72%Top 24: 88%
QB1 26.2
2 QB Lamar JacksonBAL
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 28% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 15%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB7 at the median, QB3 - QB17 in the middle half, and QB1 - QB31 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 28%Top 12: 66%Top 24: 85%
QB2 24.2
3 QB Jayden DanielsWAS
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 21% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 20%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB10 at the median, QB4 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB36 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 21%Top 12: 58%Top 24: 80%
QB3↑ 2 21.9
4 QB Jalen HurtsPHI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 21% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 21%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB10 at the median, QB4 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB37 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 21%Top 12: 56%Top 24: 79%
QB4↓ 1 21.6
5 QB Caleb WilliamsCHI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 17% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 25%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB5 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB40 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 17%Top 12: 52%Top 24: 75%
QB5↑ 5 20.5
6 QB Jaxson DartNYG
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 26%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB5 - QB26 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB42 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 16%Top 12: 51%Top 24: 74%
QB6↑ 1 19.9
7 QB Drake MayeNE
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 28%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB6 - QB27 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB44 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 15%Top 12: 47%Top 24: 72%
QB7↓ 3 19.3
8 QB Joe BurrowCINQQuestionable
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 36%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB6 - QB33 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB54 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 15%Top 12: 43%Top 24: 64%
QB8↓ 2 18.5
9 QB Brock PurdySF
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 34%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB7 - QB32 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB49 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 40%Top 24: 66%
QB9↑ 5 17.7
10 QB Dak PrescottDAL
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 36%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB7 - QB32 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB51 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 40%Top 24: 64%
QB10↓ 2 17.4
11 QB Patrick MahomesKC
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 38%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB18 at the median, QB8 - QB34 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB53 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 38%Top 24: 62%
QB11↑ 8 16.8
12 QB Trevor LawrenceJAX
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB20 at the median, QB10 - QB37 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB55 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 58%
QB12 15.8
13 QB Justin HerbertLAC
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB20 at the median, QB10 - QB36 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB56 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 32%Top 24: 58%
QB13↓ 4 15.7
14 QB Tyler ShoughNO
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 44%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB21 at the median, QB10 - QB38 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB56 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 31%Top 24: 56%
QB14↑ 4 15.4
15 QB Jared GoffDET
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB24 at the median, QB11 - QB41 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB60 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 51%
QB15↑ 2 14.6
16 QB Bryce YoungCAR
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 52%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB25 at the median, QB12 - QB42 in the middle half, and QB6 - QB61 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 49%
QB16↑ 9 13.9
17 QB Jordan LoveGB
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB26 at the median, QB13 - QB43 in the middle half, and QB6 - QB61 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 47%
QB17↑ 5 13.8
18 QB Bo NixDEN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB27 at the median, QB13 - QB44 in the middle half, and QB6 - QB63 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 47%
QB18↓ 3 13.7
19 QB Matthew StaffordLAR
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB27 at the median, QB13 - QB45 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB63 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 47%
QB19↓ 8 13.5
20 QB C.J. StroudHOU
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB28 at the median, QB15 - QB46 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB64 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 44%
QB20↑ 4 13.2
21 QB Baker MayfieldTB
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB29 at the median, QB15 - QB47 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB64 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 43%
QB21↓ 5 12.9
22 QB Malik WillisMIA
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 67%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB35 at the median, QB19 - QB55 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB67 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 33%
QB22↓ 2 11.3
23 QB Jacoby BrissettARI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 66%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB35 at the median, QB19 - QB55 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 34%
QB23↑ 4 11.3
24 QB Aaron RodgersPIT
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 67%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB36 at the median, QB20 - QB55 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 33%
QB24↑ 2 11.2
25 QB Daniel JonesIND
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 67%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB35 at the median, QB20 - QB56 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB69 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 33%
QB25↓ 4 11.1
26 QB Kirk CousinsLV
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB37 at the median, QB21 - QB57 in the middle half, and QB11 - QB71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 31%
QB26↑ 2 10.8
27 QB Carson WentzMIN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB37 at the median, QB21 - QB58 in the middle half, and QB11 - QB71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 31%
QB27↑ 34 10.8
28 QB Cam WardTEN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB37 at the median, QB22 - QB60 in the middle half, and QB11 - QB70 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 29%
QB28↑ 1 10.6
29 QB Drew LockSEA
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB38 at the median, QB22 - QB60 in the middle half, and QB12 - QB71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 29%
QB29↑ 61 10.5
30 QB Deshaun WatsonCLE
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB41 at the median, QB24 - QB62 in the middle half, and QB13 - QB71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 26%
QB30 9.8
31 QB Kyler MurrayMINQQuestionable
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB44 at the median, QB25 - QB67 in the middle half, and QB12 - QB80 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 25%
QB31↓ 18 9.6
32 QB Geno SmithNYJ
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB42 at the median, QB25 - QB63 in the middle half, and QB14 - QB73 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 24%
QB32↓ 1 9.6
33 QB Michael Penix Jr.ATLQQuestionable
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB48 at the median, QB25 - QB70 in the middle half, and QB11 - QB85 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 25%
QB33NEW 9.5
34 QB Fernando MendozaLV
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB47 at the median, QB26 - QB70 in the middle half, and QB13 - QB83 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 23%
QB34↑ 22 9.1
35 QB Shedeur SandersCLE
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB49 at the median, QB28 - QB71 in the middle half, and QB15 - QB85 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 21%
QB35↑ 39 8.6
36 QB J.J. McCarthyMIN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB52 at the median, QB29 - QB73 in the middle half, and QB15 - QB86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 19%
QB36↑ 39 8.4
37 QB Justin FieldsKC
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB53 at the median, QB32 - QB75 in the middle half, and QB17 - QB87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 16%
QB37↑ 44 7.8
38 QB Jameis WinstonNYG
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB56 at the median, QB34 - QB77 in the middle half, and QB19 - QB89 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 15%
QB38↑ 45 7.4
39 QB Kyle AllenBUF
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB58 at the median, QB35 - QB78 in the middle half, and QB19 - QB90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 15%
QB39↑ 40 7.3
40 QB Cooper RushATL
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB54 at the median, QB36 - QB74 in the middle half, and QB23 - QB84 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 12%
QB40↑ 54 7.2
41 QB Joe FlaccoCIN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB58 at the median, QB36 - QB78 in the middle half, and QB20 - QB89 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 14%
QB41↑ 48 7.2
42 QB Joshua DobbsDET
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB58 at the median, QB37 - QB79 in the middle half, and QB19 - QB90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 14%
QB42↑ 38 7.1
43 QB Max BrosmerMIN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB58 at the median, QB37 - QB79 in the middle half, and QB21 - QB90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 14%
QB43↓ 9 7.1
44 QB Mac JonesSF
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB58 at the median, QB36 - QB78 in the middle half, and QB20 - QB90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 14%
QB44↑ 56 7.1
45 QB Tyson BagentCHIQQuestionable
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB60 at the median, QB37 - QB82 in the middle half, and QB19 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 14%
QB45↑ 43 7.0
46 QB Drew AllarPIT
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB59 at the median, QB38 - QB79 in the middle half, and QB21 - QB91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 13%
QB46↑ 31 7.0
47 QB Carson BeckARI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB60 at the median, QB38 - QB80 in the middle half, and QB22 - QB91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 12%
QB47↑ 6 6.8
48 QB Kedon SlovisGB
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB60 at the median, QB38 - QB80 in the middle half, and QB22 - QB90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 13%
QB48↓ 12 6.8
49 QB Jalon DanielsTB
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB61 at the median, QB39 - QB81 in the middle half, and QB22 - QB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 12%
QB49↑ 27 6.7
50 QB Tyler HuntleyBAL
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB61 at the median, QB39 - QB81 in the middle half, and QB21 - QB91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 12%
QB50↑ 42 6.7
51 QB Ty SimpsonLAR
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB61 at the median, QB40 - QB82 in the middle half, and QB22 - QB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 12%
QB51↑ 36 6.6
52 QB Tyrod TaylorGB
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB63 at the median, QB39 - QB82 in the middle half, and QB22 - QB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 12%
QB52↑ 32 6.6
53 QB Tommy DeVitoNE
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB62 at the median, QB40 - QB81 in the middle half, and QB23 - QB91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 12%
QB53↑ 25 6.6
54 QB Joe Milton IIIDAL
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB62 at the median, QB39 - QB82 in the middle half, and QB22 - QB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 12%
QB54↓ 15 6.6
55 QB Sam HowellDAL
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB61 at the median, QB40 - QB81 in the middle half, and QB23 - QB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 12%
QB55↑ 31 6.6
56 QB Tanner McKeePHI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB62 at the median, QB41 - QB82 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 11%
QB56↑ 42 6.5
57 QB Jalen MilroeSEA
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB62 at the median, QB40 - QB82 in the middle half, and QB23 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 11%
QB57↑ 3 6.5
58 QB Mitchell TrubiskyTEN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB61 at the median, QB40 - QB82 in the middle half, and QB23 - QB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 11%
QB58↑ 46 6.5
59 QB Tua TagovailoaATLQQuestionable
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB40 - QB86 in the middle half, and QB22 - QB94 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 12%
QB59↓ 27 6.5
60 QB Mason RudolphPIT
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB62 at the median, QB41 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB60↓ 23 6.4
61 QB Trey LanceLAC
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB62 at the median, QB41 - QB82 in the middle half, and QB23 - QB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 11%
QB61↑ 30 6.4
62 QB Taylen GreenCLE
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB63 at the median, QB40 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB23 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 11%
QB62↓ 8 6.4
63 QB Bailey ZappeNYJ
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB63 at the median, QB42 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB23 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 11%
QB63↓ 16 6.4
64 QB Garrett NussmeierKC
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB63 at the median, QB41 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 11%
QB64↓ 5 6.4
65 QB Anthony RichardsonINDQQuestionable
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB41 - QB86 in the middle half, and QB22 - QB95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 12%
QB65↓ 24 6.4
66 QB Will HowardPIT
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB41 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB23 - QB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 11%
QB66↓ 4 6.4
67 QB Brady CookMIA
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB41 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB23 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 11%
QB67↓ 18 6.4
68 QB Easton StickTB
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB43 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB23 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 11%
QB68↓ 17 6.3
69 QB Hendon HookerTEN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB63 at the median, QB41 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB69↓ 17 6.3
70 QB Zach WilsonNO
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB63 at the median, QB42 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB25 - QB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB70↓ 32 6.3
71 QB Gardner MinshewARI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB62 at the median, QB42 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB71↑ 11 6.3
72 QB Cade KlubnikNYJ
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB63 at the median, QB41 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB72↑ 21 6.3
73 QB Haynes KingCAR
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB63 at the median, QB41 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB25 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB73↓ 28 6.3
74 QB Jarrett StidhamDEN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB63 at the median, QB41 - QB82 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB74↑ 23 6.3
75 QB Aidan O'ConnellLV
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB63 at the median, QB42 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB75↓ 27 6.3
76 QB Andy DaltonPHI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB41 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB76↓ 26 6.3
77 QB Spencer RattlerNO
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB63 at the median, QB42 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB77↑ 25 6.3
78 QB Riley LeonardIND
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB42 - QB84 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB78↑ 18 6.2
79 QB Shane BuecheleBUF
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB42 - QB84 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB79↓ 14 6.2
80 QB Jack StrandATL
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB63 at the median, QB42 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB25 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB80↓ 23 6.2
81 QB Kurtis RourkeSF
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB42 - QB84 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB81↓ 11 6.2
82 QB Davis MillsHOU
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB42 - QB84 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB82↑ 21 6.2
83 QB Behren MortonNE
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB42 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 11%
QB83↓ 20 6.2
84 QB Sam EhlingerDEN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB42 - QB84 in the middle half, and QB25 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9%
QB84↓ 12 6.2
85 QB Joe FagnanoBAL
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB42 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB85↓ 21 6.2
86 QB Kyle McCordMIA
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB43 - QB84 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 10%
QB86↑ 13 6.2
87 QB Marcus MariotaWAS
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB42 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB25 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB87↑ 14 6.2
88 QB Sean CliffordCIN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB65 at the median, QB44 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB25 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9%
QB88↓ 46 6.1
89 QB Josh JohnsonCIN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB65 at the median, QB43 - QB84 in the middle half, and QB25 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9%
QB89↓ 46 6.1
90 QB Jake HaenerNYG
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB65 at the median, QB43 - QB84 in the middle half, and QB26 - QB94 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9%
QB90↓ 46 6.1
91 QB Chris OladokunKC
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB44 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB25 - QB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB91NEW 6.1
92 QB Athan KaliakmanisWAS
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB65 at the median, QB43 - QB84 in the middle half, and QB24 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB92↓ 34 6.1
93 QB Quinn EwersJAX
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB42 - QB84 in the middle half, and QB25 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB93↑ 2 6.1
94 QB Case KeenumCHI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB65 at the median, QB43 - QB83 in the middle half, and QB25 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10%
QB94↓ 25 6.1
95 QB Cole PaytonPHI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB64 at the median, QB43 - QB84 in the middle half, and QB26 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9%
QB95↓ 22 6.1
96 QB Kenny PickettCAR
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB69 at the median, QB49 - QB84 in the middle half, and QB32 - QB91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6%
QB96↓ 11 5.4
97 QB Stetson BennettLAR
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB70 at the median, QB49 - QB84 in the middle half, and QB32 - QB91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5%
QB97↓ 62 5.3
98 QB Nick MullensJAX
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB73 at the median, QB51 - QB86 in the middle half, and QB34 - QB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5%
QB98↓ 31 5.0

Simulated finishes

This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.

Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.

Week 2 QB outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.

Projected rank
Median finish
13612243660
  1. QB6
    Josh Allen is ranked QB1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB6 at the median, QB2 - QB14 in the middle half, and QB1 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  2. QB7
    Lamar Jackson is ranked QB2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB7 at the median, QB3 - QB17 in the middle half, and QB1 - QB31 in the middle 80%.
  3. QB10
    Jayden Daniels is ranked QB3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB10 at the median, QB4 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB36 in the middle 80%.
  4. QB10
    Jalen Hurts is ranked QB4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB10 at the median, QB4 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB37 in the middle 80%.
  5. QB12
    Caleb Williams is ranked QB5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB5 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB40 in the middle 80%.
  6. QB12
    Jaxson Dart is ranked QB6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB5 - QB26 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB42 in the middle 80%.
  7. QB14
    Drake Maye is ranked QB7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB6 - QB27 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB44 in the middle 80%.
  8. QB16
    Joe Burrow is ranked QB8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB6 - QB33 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB54 in the middle 80%.
  9. QB16
    Brock Purdy is ranked QB9 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB7 - QB32 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB49 in the middle 80%.
  10. QB17
    Dak Prescott is ranked QB10 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB7 - QB32 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB51 in the middle 80%.
  11. QB18
    Patrick Mahomes is ranked QB11 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB18 at the median, QB8 - QB34 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB53 in the middle 80%.
  12. QB20
    Trevor Lawrence is ranked QB12 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB20 at the median, QB10 - QB37 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB55 in the middle 80%.
  13. QB20
    Justin Herbert is ranked QB13 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB20 at the median, QB10 - QB36 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB56 in the middle 80%.
  14. QB21
    Tyler Shough is ranked QB14 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB21 at the median, QB10 - QB38 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB56 in the middle 80%.
  15. QB15 Jared Goff
    QB24
    Jared Goff is ranked QB15 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB24 at the median, QB11 - QB41 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB60 in the middle 80%.
  16. QB25
    Bryce Young is ranked QB16 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB25 at the median, QB12 - QB42 in the middle half, and QB6 - QB61 in the middle 80%.
  17. QB26
    Jordan Love is ranked QB17 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB26 at the median, QB13 - QB43 in the middle half, and QB6 - QB61 in the middle 80%.
  18. QB18 Bo Nix
    QB27
    Bo Nix is ranked QB18 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB27 at the median, QB13 - QB44 in the middle half, and QB6 - QB63 in the middle 80%.
  19. QB27
    Matthew Stafford is ranked QB19 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB27 at the median, QB13 - QB45 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB63 in the middle 80%.
  20. QB28
    C.J. Stroud is ranked QB20 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB28 at the median, QB15 - QB46 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB64 in the middle 80%.
  21. QB29
    Baker Mayfield is ranked QB21 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB29 at the median, QB15 - QB47 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB64 in the middle 80%.
  22. QB35
    Malik Willis is ranked QB22 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB35 at the median, QB19 - QB55 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB67 in the middle 80%.
  23. QB35
    Jacoby Brissett is ranked QB23 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB35 at the median, QB19 - QB55 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB68 in the middle 80%.
  24. QB36
    Aaron Rodgers is ranked QB24 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB36 at the median, QB20 - QB55 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB68 in the middle 80%.
Show QB25 - QB36
  1. QB35
    Daniel Jones is ranked QB25 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB35 at the median, QB20 - QB56 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB69 in the middle 80%.
  2. QB26 Kirk Cousins
    QB37
    Kirk Cousins is ranked QB26 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB37 at the median, QB21 - QB57 in the middle half, and QB11 - QB71 in the middle 80%.
  3. QB27 Carson Wentz
    QB37
    Carson Wentz is ranked QB27 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB37 at the median, QB21 - QB58 in the middle half, and QB11 - QB71 in the middle 80%.
  4. QB28 Cam Ward
    QB37
    Cam Ward is ranked QB28 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB37 at the median, QB22 - QB60 in the middle half, and QB11 - QB70 in the middle 80%.
  5. QB29 Drew Lock
    QB38
    Drew Lock is ranked QB29 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB38 at the median, QB22 - QB60 in the middle half, and QB12 - QB71 in the middle 80%.
  6. QB30 Deshaun Watson
    QB41
    Deshaun Watson is ranked QB30 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB41 at the median, QB24 - QB62 in the middle half, and QB13 - QB71 in the middle 80%.
  7. QB44
    Kyler Murray is ranked QB31 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB44 at the median, QB25 - QB67 in the middle half, and QB12 - QB80 in the middle 80%.
  8. QB32 Geno Smith
    QB42
    Geno Smith is ranked QB32 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB42 at the median, QB25 - QB63 in the middle half, and QB14 - QB73 in the middle 80%.
  9. QB48
    Michael Penix Jr. is ranked QB33 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB48 at the median, QB25 - QB70 in the middle half, and QB11 - QB85 in the middle 80%.
  10. QB47
    Fernando Mendoza is ranked QB34 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB47 at the median, QB26 - QB70 in the middle half, and QB13 - QB83 in the middle 80%.
  11. QB49
    Shedeur Sanders is ranked QB35 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB49 at the median, QB28 - QB71 in the middle half, and QB15 - QB85 in the middle 80%.
  12. QB52
    J.J. McCarthy is ranked QB36 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB52 at the median, QB29 - QB73 in the middle half, and QB15 - QB86 in the middle 80%.

Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.

The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.

How these are made

This board was built from 2026 usage for 58% of the board, draft position for 100%, an outside projection for 58%, sportsbook props for 6%, an official status for 82%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Full PPR, 1QB.

Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured September 17, 2026 19:04 UTC. Movement is previous - current; positive means the player moved up the board (a smaller rank number), measured in positional rank against the final Week 1 board generated before that week's first kickoff (September 9, 2026). Model rankings-v1.3.0, board captured 2026-09-17.

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); Polymarket (prediction-market prices); The Odds API (player props).

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