LV · Bye 13 · Rookie
Fernando Mendoza
Fernando Mendoza comes off the board at 13.08 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 12.12.
12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated October 1, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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Raiders and Steelers among suitors for first-round bust, but he could help Fernando Mendoza
Yahoo Sports ·
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Fernando Mendoza heard all the jokes, now he’s cashing in on them
nypost.com ·
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Raiders could make surprise trade to prepare for Fernando Mendoza era
yardbarker.com ·
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Rob Gronkowski issues out ‘advice’ after what he’s seen from Fernando Mendoza
yardbarker.com ·
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Fernando Mendoza finally joins Kirk Cousins in unique routine after a win
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Fernando Mendoza by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs MIA | 5.6 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | @ LAC | 9.1 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | @ NO | 15.4 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Fernando Mendoza #52 in 1QB and #28 in Superflex, QB12 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#52
QB12 · tier 15 · of 297 · rookie 4 of 52
Superflex
#28
QB12 · tier 7 · of 303 · rookie 2 of 52
- Draft capital Round 1, pick 1 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty QB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.08
pick 151.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.12
half of simulations take him by pick 144
Draft range
11.11 - 15.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 7,266 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.12 in 65% of simulations
Pick 144 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 13.01, where he is available in 62% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 12.12 65% · 13.01 62% · 14.12 49% · 15.01 48%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.04 and 15.02.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.10 | 70% |
| 12.11 | 67% |
| 12.12 | 65% |
| 13.01 | 62% |
| 13.02 | 62% |
| 13.03 | 61% |
| 13.04 | 61% |
| 13.05 | 61% |
| 13.06 | 61% |
| 13.07 | 60% |
| 13.08 | 60% |
| 13.09 | 60% |
| 13.10 | 59% |
| 13.11 | 59% |
| 13.12 | 59% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 11.11-11.12 | 4% | 410 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.02 | 4% | 427 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.04 | 4% | 435 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.06 | 5% | 461 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.08 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.10 | 5% | 514 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-12.12 | 5% | 538 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | <1% | 34 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | <1% | 59 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | <1% | 65 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | <1% | 52 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | <1% | 73 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | <1% | 74 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | 1% | 140 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.04 | 2% | 185 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.06 | 2% | 151 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.08 | 2% | 153 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.10 | 2% | 195 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | 2% | 204 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 3% | 347 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03-15.04 | 3% | 346 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 4% | 369 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07-15.08 | 3% | 332 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 7266 simulations in which Fernando Mendoza was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 2%
- Baker Mayfield QB · TB 2%
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 3%
- Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 2%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 2%
- Rachaad White RB · WAS 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Fernando Mendoza was selected in 7266 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.