KC · Bye 5
Justin Fields
Justin Fields comes off the board at 12.12 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty mock drafts, with a median of 12.11.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DEN | 4.3 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | vs IND | 7.6 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | @ MIA | 14.2 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Justin Fields #135 in 1QB and #124 in Superflex, QB28 at his position. Age 27.
1QB
#135
QB28 · tier 30 · of 297
Superflex
#124
QB28 · tier 21 · of 303
- Last season 142.7 pts 15.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 59% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 21.9 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.12
pick 143.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.11
half of simulations take him by pick 143
Draft range
10.12 - 14.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,556 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.11 in 54% of simulations
Pick 143 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 13.02, where he is available in 48% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 12.11 54% · 13.02 48% · 14.11 16% · 15.02 13%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.10 and 14.01.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.09 | 57% |
| 12.10 | 56% |
| 12.11 | 54% |
| 12.12 | 52% |
| 13.01 | 50% |
| 13.02 | 48% |
| 13.03 | 46% |
| 13.04 | 44% |
| 13.05 | 42% |
| 13.06 | 40% |
| 13.07 | 38% |
| 13.08 | 37% |
| 13.09 | 35% |
| 13.10 | 34% |
| 13.11 | 32% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.12-11.02 | 4% | 391 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.03-11.05 | 4% | 439 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.06-11.08 | 5% | 492 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.09-11.11 | 5% | 480 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.02 | 5% | 543 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.03-12.05 | 5% | 520 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.08 | 6% | 554 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.09-12.11 | 5% | 512 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.02 | 6% | 604 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.05 | 6% | 590 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.08 | 5% | 513 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.11 | 4% | 439 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.02 | 4% | 435 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.05 | 4% | 426 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.08 | 4% | 401 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.11 | 4% | 355 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | 1% | 103 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9556 simulations in which Justin Fields was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Joe Burrow QB · CIN 2%
- Kaelon Black RB · SF 2%
- Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 2%
- Tucker Kraft TE · GB 2%
Usually taken just after
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 2%
- Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI 2%
- Blake Corum RB · LAR 2%
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Justin Fields was selected in 9556 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.