CHI · Bye 10
Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams comes off the board at 5.09 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 5.09.
12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated October 1, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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'It Sends the Wrong Message': Bears Legend Delivers a Firm Demand to Ben Johnson Amid Caleb Williams’ Injury
yardbarker.com ·
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Major Update Emerges on Bears’ Starting QB Plans for Jets Game With Caleb Williams Out
Yahoo Sports ·
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Bears Refuse to Name Starter for Jets Game as Caleb Williams’ Recovery Stretches
Yahoo Sports ·
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Bears sit Caleb Williams, split on starting QB vs.
asiatoday.co ·
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NFL Week 4 Injury Report: Latest Betting Updates on Caleb Williams, Justin Jefferson & Puka Nacua
sportsbettingdime.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Caleb Williams by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Caleb Williams has averaged +4.5 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ CAR | 15.7 | 37.3 | +21.6 |
| Wk 2 | vs MIN | 20.2 | 7.7 | -12.5 |
| Wk 3 | vs PHI | 15.7 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB10. No board we publish ranks him now, so there is nothing to measure that price against.
Preseason market: QB10 · ADP 86.0
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
This week
Not ranked this week — a bye or a ruling out takes a player off the weekly board rather than ranking him last.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB10 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Caleb Williams #15 in 1QB and #5 in Superflex, QB3 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#15
QB3 · tier 7 · of 297
Superflex
#5
QB3 · tier 2 · of 303
- Last season 317.7 pts 18.7 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 33.3 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
5.09
pick 56.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
5.09
half of simulations take him by pick 57
Draft range
4.06 - 6.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 5.09 in 52% of simulations
Pick 57 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 9, the same seat picks again at 6.04, where he is available in 27% of simulations.
Slot 9's remaining turns: 5.09 52% · 6.04 27% · 7.09 <1% · 8.04 <1% · 9.09 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 5.01 and 6.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 5.07 | 59% |
| 5.08 | 55% |
| 5.09 | 52% |
| 5.10 | 48% |
| 5.11 | 44% |
| 5.12 | 41% |
| 6.01 | 37% |
| 6.02 | 34% |
| 6.03 | 30% |
| 6.04 | 27% |
| 6.05 | 24% |
| 6.06 | 21% |
| 6.07 | 18% |
| 6.08 | 16% |
| 6.09 | 13% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.06-4.07 | 3% | 321 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08-4.09 | 4% | 376 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10-4.11 | 4% | 437 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12-5.01 | 5% | 527 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.02-5.03 | 6% | 599 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04-5.05 | 6% | 644 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06-5.07 | 7% | 715 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08-5.09 | 7% | 690 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10-5.11 | 7% | 715 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.12-6.01 | 7% | 704 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.02-6.03 | 7% | 671 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.04-6.05 | 6% | 587 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.06-6.07 | 6% | 565 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08-6.09 | 5% | 488 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10 | 2% | 197 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Caleb Williams was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jayden Daniels QB · WAS 4%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 3%
- David Montgomery RB · HOU 3%
- Lamar Jackson QB · BAL 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jayden Daniels QB · WAS 4%
- David Montgomery RB · HOU 3%
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 3%
- Christian Watson WR · GB 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Caleb Williams was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.