HOU · Bye 8
C.J. Stroud
LMD QB12 for Week 4 · 15.5 projected Full PPR points
In season
Week 4 fantasy ranking
We project 15.5 points this week, QB12. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 40% · Top 24: 78% of simulated weeks. Down 4 since Week 3.
Week 4
QB12
28th by projected points
Projected
15.5
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
40%
Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 78% at QB
Movement
↓ 4
QB8 in Week 3, QB12 now
Should you start C.J. Stroud in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks C.J. Stroud QB12 for Week 4, inside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 40% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
QB12 vs QB23 +11
LMD has him QB12. The fantasy draft market has him QB23, 11 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.33 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.00 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.83 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.05 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.03 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
C.J. Stroud, Texans desperately need Nico Collins’ injury trend to continue for Week 4
Yahoo Sports ·
-
C.J. Stroud Gets More Bad News Amid Nico Collins, Jadeveon Clowney Updates
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Fantasy Football Streamers Week 2: Top Options Include C.J. Stroud, Dalton Schultz, and Trey Smack
Yahoo Sports ·
-
WATCH: Texans' C.J. Stroud connects with Nico Collins for TD right before halftime
lufkindailynews.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to C.J. Stroud by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games C.J. Stroud has averaged +0.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs BUF | 12.4 | 16.5 | +4.1 |
| Wk 2 | vs CIN | 13.8 | 17.0 | +3.2 |
| Wk 3 | @ IND | 16.3 | 11.7 | -4.6 |
| Wk 4 | vs DAL | 15.5 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB23. This week LMD has him 11 spots higher, at QB12.
Preseason market: QB23 · ADP 155.7
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 4
QB12 +11
LMD has him 11 spots higher than his QB23 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB23 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has C.J. Stroud #58 in 1QB and #34 in Superflex, QB14 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#58
QB14 · tier 16 · of 297
Superflex
#34
QB14 · tier 8 · of 303
- Last season 208.5 pts 14.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 89% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 31.1 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.01
pick 169.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.03
half of simulations take him by pick 171
Draft range
14.01 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 3,701 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.03 in 83% of simulations
Pick 171 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.09 and 15.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.01 | 87% |
| 15.02 | 85% |
| 15.03 | 83% |
| 15.04 | 81% |
| 15.05 | 79% |
| 15.06 | 77% |
| 15.07 | 75% |
| 15.08 | 73% |
| 15.09 | 71% |
| 15.10 | 69% |
| 15.11 | 67% |
| 15.12 | 65% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.01 | <1% | 64 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02 | <1% | 74 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03 | <1% | 69 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04 | <1% | 77 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05 | <1% | 65 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | <1% | 72 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | <1% | 57 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | <1% | 78 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | <1% | 99 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | <1% | 94 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | <1% | 98 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | 1% | 110 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 2% | 198 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 2% | 190 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 200 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 185 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 191 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 216 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 210 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 212 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 206 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 205 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 197 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 3701 simulations in which C.J. Stroud was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 3%
- Chris Boswell K · PIT 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
Usually taken just after
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 3%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 2%
- Chris Boswell K · PIT 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
C.J. Stroud was selected in 3701 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.