ATL · Bye 11
Michael Penix Jr.
LMD QB Tier 4 for Week 9 · 14.1 projected Half PPR points
In season
Week 9 fantasy ranking
We project 14.1 points this week, QB Tier 4. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 4.9 - 24.9 points. Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 34% · Top 24: 77% of simulated weeks.
Week 9
QB Tier 4
13.4 - 14.4 projected points
Projected
14.1
week 9, Half PPR
Top 12
34%
Top 3: 7% · Top 24: 77% at QB
Movement
↓ 7
QB14 in Week 8, QB21 now
Should you start Michael Penix Jr. in Week 9?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Michael Penix Jr. QB21 for Week 9, outside the QB12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside QB12 in 34% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.11 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.33 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.74 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.29 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.04 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated November 5, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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STATUS
Michael Penix Jr. is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Drake London has Massive Numbers with Michael Penix Jr. at QB, and He Doesn't Care
Sports Illustrated ·
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Two Michael Penix deep shots set up Kyle Pitts' first touchdown of 2026
Yahoo Sports ·
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Bijan Robinson Says Michael Penix Jr. 'Makes The Offense Complete'
football.realgm.com ·
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Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London thrives with Michael Penix Jr. as his quarterback.
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Michael Penix Jr. by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 6 completed games Michael Penix Jr. has averaged +1.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ PIT | 3.8 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | vs CAR | 9.5 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | @ GB | 5.5 | 14.0 | +8.5 |
| Wk 4 | @ NO | 14.3 | 12.7 | -1.6 |
| Wk 5 | vs BAL | 13.5 | 14.4 | +0.9 |
| Wk 6 | vs CHI | 14.3 | 23.1 | +8.8 |
| Wk 7 | vs SF | 14.0 | 20.4 | +6.4 |
| Wk 8 | @ TB | 14.7 | -1.9 | -16.6 |
| Wk 9 | vs CIN | 14.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Michael Penix Jr. #161 in 1QB and #152 in Superflex, QB30 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#161
QB30 · tier 37 · of 300
Superflex
#152
QB30 · tier 28 · of 307
- Last season 120.3 pts 13.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 44% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 27.0 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.04
pick 160.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.05
half of simulations take him by pick 161
Draft range
12.11 - 15.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 6,922 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.05 in 66% of simulations
Pick 161 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 15.08, where he is available in 38% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 14.05 66% · 15.08 38%
The middle half of simulations take him between 13.06 and 15.02.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.03 | 70% |
| 14.04 | 68% |
| 14.05 | 66% |
| 14.06 | 64% |
| 14.07 | 63% |
| 14.08 | 60% |
| 14.09 | 58% |
| 14.10 | 56% |
| 14.11 | 54% |
| 14.12 | 53% |
| 15.01 | 51% |
| 15.02 | 49% |
| 15.03 | 47% |
| 15.04 | 45% |
| 15.05 | 44% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.11-12.12 | 2% | 242 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | 3% | 291 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | 3% | 282 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | 3% | 297 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | 3% | 302 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | 3% | 292 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | 3% | 321 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | 4% | 361 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.04 | 3% | 349 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.06 | 4% | 391 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.08 | 4% | 412 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.10 | 4% | 394 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | 3% | 342 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 4% | 381 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03-15.04 | 4% | 366 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 3% | 349 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07-15.08 | 3% | 332 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 6922 simulations in which Michael Penix Jr. was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Gunnar Helm TE · TEN 2%
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 2%
- Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 2%
- Caleb Douglas WR · MIA 2%
Usually taken just after
- Ollie Gordon II RB · MIA 2%
- Kayshon Boutte WR · HOU 2%
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 2%
- Matthew Golden WR · GB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Michael Penix Jr. was selected in 6922 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 5, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@c60914d598b9e57d
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.