ATL · Bye 11
Michael Penix Jr.
Michael Penix Jr. comes off the board at 14.04 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty mock drafts, with a median of 14.05.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. on the bench with Kyle Pitts during Sunday's loss to the Panthers.
Sports Illustrated ·
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Falcons' Bijan Robinson may have gone off script and revealed Michael Penix Jr.'s Week 2 status
Yahoo Sports ·
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Bijan Robinson Reveals Michael Penix Jr.'s Bold Claim amid Falcons QB's Injury Rehab
Bleacher Report ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Michael Penix Jr. by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ PIT | 3.8 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | vs CAR | 9.5 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | @ GB | 5.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Michael Penix Jr. #161 in 1QB and #152 in Superflex, QB30 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#161
QB30 · tier 37 · of 297
Superflex
#152
QB30 · tier 28 · of 303
- Last season 120.3 pts 13.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 44% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 27.0 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.04
pick 160.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.05
half of simulations take him by pick 161
Draft range
12.11 - 15.08
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 6,898 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.05 in 66% of simulations
Pick 161 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 15.08, where he is available in 38% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 14.05 66% · 15.08 38%
The middle half of simulations take him between 13.06 and 15.02.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.03 | 70% |
| 14.04 | 68% |
| 14.05 | 66% |
| 14.06 | 64% |
| 14.07 | 62% |
| 14.08 | 60% |
| 14.09 | 58% |
| 14.10 | 56% |
| 14.11 | 54% |
| 14.12 | 53% |
| 15.01 | 51% |
| 15.02 | 49% |
| 15.03 | 47% |
| 15.04 | 45% |
| 15.05 | 44% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.11-12.12 | 2% | 243 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | 3% | 288 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | 3% | 282 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | 3% | 298 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | 3% | 304 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | 3% | 292 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | 3% | 323 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | 4% | 361 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.04 | 4% | 350 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.06 | 4% | 394 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.08 | 4% | 406 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.10 | 4% | 391 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | 3% | 339 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 4% | 377 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03-15.04 | 4% | 361 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 4% | 353 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07-15.08 | 3% | 325 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 6898 simulations in which Michael Penix Jr. was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Gunnar Helm TE · TEN 2%
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 2%
- Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 2%
- Dalton Schultz TE · HOU 2%
Usually taken just after
- Kayshon Boutte WR · HOU 2%
- Ollie Gordon II RB · MIA 2%
- Mike Washington Jr. RB · LV 2%
- Matthew Golden WR · GB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Michael Penix Jr. was selected in 6898 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.