TEN · Bye 9
Cam Ward
LMD QB32 for Week 4 · 11.4 projected Full PPR points
In season
Week 4 fantasy ranking
We project 11.4 points this week, QB32. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 18% · Top 24: 59% of simulated weeks. Down 6 since Week 3.
Week 4
QB32
83rd by projected points
Projected
11.4
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
18%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 59% at QB
Movement
↓ 6
QB26 in Week 3, QB32 now
Should you start Cam Ward in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Cam Ward QB32 for Week 4, outside the QB12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside QB12 in 18% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.07 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.65 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.60 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.19 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.51 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
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AFC Notes: Cam Ward, Azeez Al-Shaair, Spencer Shrader, Colts, Texans, Titans
yardbarker.com ·
-
Is Cam Ward pressing? How Titans QB coach evaluated INT vs. Giants
Yahoo Sports ·
-
‘They mismanaged Cam Ward’: NFL insider makes strong case against starting Titans QB Cam Ward right now
bundle.app ·
-
Cam Ward is the target of serious threats
dose.ca ·
-
Saleh backs Cam Ward after late pick drops Titans to 0-3 with doubts growing
franklinfavorite.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Cam Ward by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Cam Ward has averaged +2.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NYJ | 10.7 | 11.7 | +1.0 |
| Wk 2 | vs PHI | 11.4 | 20.0 | +8.6 |
| Wk 3 | @ NYG | 13.1 | 9.4 | -3.7 |
| Wk 4 | @ BAL | 11.4 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Cam Ward #78 in 1QB and #52 in Superflex, QB19 at his position. Age 24.
1QB
#78
QB19 · tier 19 · of 297
Superflex
#52
QB19 · tier 11 · of 303
- Last season 186.7 pts 11.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 31.8 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.03
pick 159.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
14.07
half of simulations take him by pick 163
Draft range
12.06 - 15.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 5,652 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 14.07 in 72% of simulations
Pick 163 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 15.06, where he is available in 56% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 14.07 72% · 15.06 56%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.10 and 15.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.05 | 74% |
| 14.06 | 73% |
| 14.07 | 72% |
| 14.08 | 71% |
| 14.09 | 71% |
| 14.10 | 70% |
| 14.11 | 69% |
| 14.12 | 67% |
| 15.01 | 66% |
| 15.02 | 64% |
| 15.03 | 62% |
| 15.04 | 60% |
| 15.05 | 58% |
| 15.06 | 56% |
| 15.07 | 55% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.06-12.07 | 4% | 399 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 4% | 440 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 5% | 464 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 2% | 239 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 44 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 62 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 75 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 61 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 55 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | 1% | 104 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | 2% | 154 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | 2% | 167 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 2% | 177 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 2% | 180 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 2% | 220 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 3% | 323 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 4% | 392 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 4% | 381 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 4% | 363 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08-15.09 | 4% | 381 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 5652 simulations in which Cam Ward was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Matthew Stafford QB · LAR 2%
- Jonah Coleman RB · DEN 2%
- Fernando Mendoza QB · LV 2%
- Tyjae Spears RB · TEN 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 3%
- De'Zhaun Stribling WR · SF 2%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 2%
- Fernando Mendoza QB · LV 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Cam Ward was selected in 5652 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.