MIN · Bye 6
Kyler Murray
LMD QB15 for Week 4 · 15.1 projected Full PPR points
In season
Week 4 fantasy ranking
We project 15.1 points this week, QB15. Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 37% · Top 24: 73% of simulated weeks.
Week 4
QB15
36th by projected points
Projected
15.1
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
37%
Top 3: 9% · Top 24: 73% at QB
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at QB in Week 3
Should you start Kyler Murray in Week 4?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Kyler Murray QB15 for Week 4, just outside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 37% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
QB15 vs QB19 +4
LMD has him QB15. The fantasy draft market has him QB19, 4 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.96 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-1.27 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.79 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+1.02 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+1.57 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
PODCAST: Vikings Trade J.J. McCarthy as Kyler Murray Struggles and Justin Jefferson Gets Hurt
Yahoo Sports ·
-
STATUS
Kyler Murray was listed as Questionable.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Kyler Murray could miss Week 2, but that might not stop Justin Jefferson from having another huge game for the Vikings.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Vikings’ Justin Jefferson Addresses Scary Kyler Murray Concussion After Week 1 Victory
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson sends prayers to Kyler Murray after ‘scary’ injury
bundle.app ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Kyler Murray by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 2 completed games Kyler Murray has averaged -9.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs GB | 14.4 | -0.4 | -14.8 |
| Wk 2 | @ CHI | 9.6 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | @ TB | 14.4 | 10.4 | -4.0 |
| Wk 4 | vs MIA | 15.1 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB17. This week LMD has him 2 spots higher, at QB15.
Preseason market: QB17 · ADP 129.2
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 4
QB15 +2
LMD has him 2 spots higher than his QB17 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB17 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Kyler Murray #177 in 1QB and #162 in Superflex, QB33 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#177
QB33 · tier 40 · of 297
Superflex
#162
QB33 · tier 30 · of 303
- Last season 77.8 pts 15.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 54% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 32.3 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.02
pick 169.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.04
half of simulations take him by pick 172
Draft range
14.02 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 3,383 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.04 in 83% of simulations
Pick 172 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.09 and 15.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.02 | 87% |
| 15.03 | 85% |
| 15.04 | 83% |
| 15.05 | 81% |
| 15.06 | 79% |
| 15.07 | 77% |
| 15.08 | 75% |
| 15.09 | 74% |
| 15.10 | 72% |
| 15.11 | 70% |
| 15.12 | 68% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.02 | <1% | 59 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03 | <1% | 48 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04 | <1% | 71 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05 | <1% | 75 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | <1% | 52 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | <1% | 84 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | <1% | 80 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | <1% | 84 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | <1% | 89 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | <1% | 98 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | 1% | 112 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 2% | 165 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 2% | 195 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 161 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 196 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 194 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 209 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 187 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 175 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 193 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 176 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 180 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 3383 simulations in which Kyler Murray was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Andy Borregales K · NE 3%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 3%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
Usually taken just after
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 3%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kyler Murray was selected in 3383 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.