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QB

NYJ · Bye 13

Geno Smith

LMD QB18 for Week 4 · 15.1 projected Half PPR points

In season

Week 4 fantasy ranking

We project 15.1 points this week, QB18. Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 37% · Top 24: 77% of simulated weeks. Down 4 since Week 3.

Week 4

QB18

27th by projected points

Projected

15.1

week 4, Half PPR

Top 12

37%

Top 3: 7% · Top 24: 77% at QB

Movement

↓ 4

QB14 in Week 3, QB18 now

Should you start Geno Smith in Week 4?

Borderline

It is close. LMD ranks Geno Smith QB18 for Week 4, just outside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 37% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

Half PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All QB rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Geno Smith by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 3 completed games Geno Smith has averaged +5.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Geno Smith, Half PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 @ TEN 9.5 9.3 -0.2
Wk 2 vs GB 10.7 15.6 +4.9
Wk 3 @ DET 14.7 26.0 +11.3
Wk 4 @ CHI 15.1 Pending —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Geno Smith #142 in 1QB and #131 in Superflex, QB29 at his position. Age 35.

1QB

#142

QB29 · tier 31 · of 297

Superflex

#131

QB29 · tier 23 · of 303

  • Last season 173.9 pts 11.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Attempts 31.8 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty QB rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR Superflex drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

14.11

pick 166.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

15.05

half of simulations take him by pick 173

Draft range

12.09 - 15.11

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 1,025 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams
Scoring Half PPR also published: Full PPR
QB format Superflex
Pool Redraft also published: Dynasty

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 15.05 in 95% of simulations

Pick 173 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

The middle half of simulations take him between 14.07 and 15.09.

Geno Smith still on the board
PickAvailable
15.03 96%
15.04 95%
15.05 95%
15.06 94%
15.07 94%
15.08 93%
15.09 93%
15.10 92%
15.11 91%
15.12 90%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Geno Smith was selected at each pick, 12.09-12.10 through 15.11. He goes earlier than this window in <1%, later in <1%, undrafted in 90%.
Draft position distribution for Geno Smith
PickShare of simulationsCount
12.09-12.10<1%37 of 10000 simulations
12.11-12.12<1%47 of 10000 simulations
13.01-13.02<1%1 of 10000 simulations
13.03-13.04<1%6 of 10000 simulations
13.05-13.06<1%5 of 10000 simulations
13.07-13.08<1%4 of 10000 simulations
13.09-13.10<1%5 of 10000 simulations
13.11-13.12<1%6 of 10000 simulations
14.01-14.02<1%13 of 10000 simulations
14.03-14.04<1%16 of 10000 simulations
14.05-14.06<1%16 of 10000 simulations
14.07-14.08<1%24 of 10000 simulations
14.09-14.10<1%25 of 10000 simulations
14.11-14.12<1%29 of 10000 simulations
15.01-15.02<1%92 of 10000 simulations
15.03-15.04<1%95 of 10000 simulations
15.05-15.061%113 of 10000 simulations
15.07-15.081%120 of 10000 simulations
15.09-15.101%139 of 10000 simulations
15.11<1%70 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 1025 simulations in which Geno Smith was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR Superflex drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Geno Smith was selected in 1025 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
October 1, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
rank

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Half PPR Superflex draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.