NO · Bye 8
Tyler Shough
LMD QB2 for Week 4 · 17.9 projected Full PPR points
In season
Week 4 fantasy ranking
We project 17.9 points this week, QB2. Top 3: 15% · Top 12: 51% · Top 24: 84% of simulated weeks.
Week 4
QB2
11th by projected points
Projected
17.9
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
51%
Top 3: 15% · Top 24: 84% at QB
Movement
—
Unchanged: QB2 in Week 3
Should you start Tyler Shough in Week 4?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Tyler Shough QB2 for Week 4, inside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 51% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.79 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.98 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.94 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.06 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.06 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
The Saints Finally Found Their Post-Brees Answer in Tyler Shough
yardbarker.com ·
-
Fantasy football Week 4 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em: Tyler Shough jumps into obvious QB1 territory vs. Falcons
CBS Sports ·
-
Fantasy football Week 4 Start 'Em & Sit 'Em Quarterbacks: Tyler Shough continues scorching start vs. Falcons
CBS Sports ·
-
Tyler Shough, Saints.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
NFC Notes: Tyler Shough, Robert Hunt, Falcons, Panthers, Saints
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Tyler Shough by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Tyler Shough has averaged +7.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ DET | 13.1 | 23.2 | +10.1 |
| Wk 2 | @ BAL | 15.7 | 22.4 | +6.7 |
| Wk 3 | vs LV | 18.5 | 23.8 | +5.3 |
| Wk 4 | vs ATL | 17.9 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB19. This week LMD has him 17 spots higher, at QB2.
Preseason market: QB19 · ADP 137.8
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 4
QB2 +17
LMD has him 17 spots higher than his QB19 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB19 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Tyler Shough #116 in 1QB and #92 in Superflex, QB23 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#116
QB23 · tier 26 · of 297
Superflex
#92
QB23 · tier 16 · of 303
- Last season 158.0 pts 14.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 65% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 29.7 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
11.07
pick 127.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.06
half of simulations take him by pick 126
Draft range
9.07 - 14.02
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,793 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.06 in 52% of simulations
Pick 126 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 12.07, where he is available in 26% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 11.06 52% · 12.07 26% · 13.06 14% · 14.07 10% · 15.06 5%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.05 and 12.06.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.04 | 56% |
| 11.05 | 54% |
| 11.06 | 52% |
| 11.07 | 50% |
| 11.08 | 48% |
| 11.09 | 46% |
| 11.10 | 44% |
| 11.11 | 42% |
| 11.12 | 39% |
| 12.01 | 37% |
| 12.02 | 36% |
| 12.03 | 33% |
| 12.04 | 31% |
| 12.05 | 29% |
| 12.06 | 28% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 9.07-9.09 | 4% | 397 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.12 | 4% | 438 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.03 | 5% | 506 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.06 | 5% | 488 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.09 | 5% | 536 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.12 | 6% | 555 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.03 | 6% | 588 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.06 | 6% | 577 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.09 | 6% | 639 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.12 | 6% | 612 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.03 | 6% | 606 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.06 | 6% | 573 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.09 | 5% | 523 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.12 | 5% | 543 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.03 | <1% | 47 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.06 | <1% | 69 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.09 | <1% | 56 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.12 | <1% | 74 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | <1% | 91 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9793 simulations in which Tyler Shough was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jordan Love QB · GB 2%
- Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN 2%
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS 2%
- Jayden Reed WR · GB 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS 2%
- Jared Goff QB · DET 2%
- Brenton Strange TE · JAX 2%
- Josh Downs WR · IND 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Tyler Shough was selected in 9793 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.