PIT · Bye 9 · Rookie
Drew Allar
Drew Allar comes off the board at 5.02 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie mock drafts, with a median of 5.04.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulated ADP
5.02
pick 50.4 overall, on average
Median pick
5.04
half of simulations take him by pick 52
Draft range
4.04 - 5.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 5,284 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 5.04 in 74% of simulations
Pick 52 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 4.09 and 5.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 5.02 | 79% |
| 5.03 | 76% |
| 5.04 | 74% |
| 5.05 | 72% |
| 5.06 | 69% |
| 5.07 | 66% |
| 5.08 | 63% |
| 5.09 | 60% |
| 5.10 | 57% |
| 5.11 | 53% |
| 5.12 | 50% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.04 | 1% | 142 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 1% | 119 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 1% | 143 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 1% | 139 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 1% | 142 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 2% | 160 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 2% | 166 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 2% | 186 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12 | 2% | 188 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01 | 2% | 228 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.02 | 2% | 246 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03 | 2% | 224 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.04 | 3% | 250 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05 | 3% | 277 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.06 | 3% | 287 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07 | 3% | 310 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.08 | 3% | 315 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09 | 3% | 309 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.10 | 3% | 312 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11 | 3% | 299 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 5284 simulations in which Drew Allar was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Carson Beck QB · ARI 4%
- Athan Kaliakmanis QB · WAS 4%
- Joe Fagnano QB · BAL 3%
- Camden Brown WR · DAL 3%
Usually taken just after
- Joe Fagnano QB · BAL 4%
- Jalon Daniels QB · TB 3%
- Carson Beck QB · ARI 3%
- Hayden Large TE · CHI 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.
Drew Allar was selected in 5284 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.
We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.1
- Generated
- August 20, 2026
- Player dataset
- sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.