KC · Bye 5
Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes comes off the board at 8.04 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 8.02.
12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulated ADP
8.04
pick 87.7 overall, on average
Median pick
8.02
half of simulations take him by pick 86
Draft range
6.08 - 10.01
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.02 in 52% of simulations
Pick 86 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 11, the same seat picks again at 9.11, where he is available in 13% of simulations.
Slot 11's remaining turns: 8.02 52% · 9.11 13% · 10.02 10% · 11.11 <1% · 12.02 <1% · 13.11 <1% · 14.02 <1% · 15.11 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.03 and 9.02.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.12 | 57% |
| 8.01 | 54% |
| 8.02 | 52% |
| 8.03 | 50% |
| 8.04 | 47% |
| 8.05 | 45% |
| 8.06 | 43% |
| 8.07 | 41% |
| 8.08 | 39% |
| 8.09 | 37% |
| 8.10 | 34% |
| 8.11 | 32% |
| 8.12 | 30% |
| 9.01 | 28% |
| 9.02 | 26% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.08-6.09 | 4% | 370 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10-6.11 | 4% | 391 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12-7.01 | 4% | 406 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02-7.03 | 4% | 412 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 5% | 463 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 5% | 465 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 4% | 443 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 5% | 460 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 5% | 453 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 5% | 478 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 5% | 456 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 4% | 422 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 4% | 432 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 4% | 418 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 4% | 391 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 3% | 328 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 3% | 302 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 3% | 270 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 3% | 266 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 3% | 257 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 2% | 221 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Patrick Mahomes was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jaxson Dart QB · NYG 2%
- Michael Wilson WR · ARI 2%
- Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 2%
- Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 2%
Usually taken just after
- Rico Dowdle RB · PIT 2%
- Parker Washington WR · JAX 2%
- Michael Wilson WR · ARI 2%
- Oronde Gadsden TE · LAC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.
Patrick Mahomes was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.
We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.1
- Generated
- August 20, 2026
- Player dataset
- sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.