KC · Bye 5
Patrick Mahomes
LMD QB6 for Week 4 · 16.8 projected Full PPR points
In season
Week 4 fantasy ranking
We project 16.8 points this week, QB6. Top 3: 12% · Top 12: 46% · Top 24: 81% of simulated weeks. Down 2 since Week 3.
Week 4
QB6
16th by projected points
Projected
16.8
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
46%
Top 3: 12% · Top 24: 81% at QB
Movement
↓ 2
QB4 in Week 3, QB6 now
Should you start Patrick Mahomes in Week 4?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Patrick Mahomes QB6 for Week 4, inside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 46% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.19 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.39 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.88 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.26 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.25 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Patrick Mahomes Shares Personal News Before Chiefs-Raiders Game
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Patrick Mahomes looks to extend mastery of Raiders, AFC West
NBC Sports ·
-
Brittany Mahomes reveals priorities as Patrick Mahomes gets honest on wife's role during brutal 7-hour rehab days
sportskeeda.com ·
-
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are favorites in Las Vegas.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Vahe Gregorian: Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes, Raiders’ Maxx Crosby share a rivalry — and friendship
hastingstribune.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Patrick Mahomes by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Patrick Mahomes has averaged +6.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DEN | 13.5 | 21.7 | +8.2 |
| Wk 2 | vs IND | 16.8 | 29.0 | +12.2 |
| Wk 3 | @ MIA | 17.9 | 15.9 | -2.0 |
| Wk 4 | @ LV | 16.8 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB14. This week LMD has him 8 spots higher, at QB6.
Preseason market: QB14 · ADP 104.0
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 4
QB6 +8
LMD has him 8 spots higher than his QB14 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB14 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Patrick Mahomes #48 in 1QB and #24 in Superflex, QB10 at his position. Age 30.
1QB
#48
QB10 · tier 14 · of 297
Superflex
#24
QB10 · tier 7 · of 303
- Last season 285.2 pts 20.4 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 88% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 36.3 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.05
pick 89.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.05
half of simulations take him by pick 89
Draft range
6.11 - 9.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.05 in 50% of simulations
Pick 89 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 9.08, where he is available in 17% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 8.05 50% · 9.08 17% · 10.05 6% · 11.08 <1% · 12.05 <1% · 13.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.07 and 9.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.03 | 56% |
| 8.04 | 53% |
| 8.05 | 50% |
| 8.06 | 48% |
| 8.07 | 45% |
| 8.08 | 42% |
| 8.09 | 40% |
| 8.10 | 37% |
| 8.11 | 35% |
| 8.12 | 32% |
| 9.01 | 30% |
| 9.02 | 28% |
| 9.03 | 26% |
| 9.04 | 24% |
| 9.05 | 23% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.11-6.12 | 3% | 341 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01-7.02 | 3% | 343 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03-7.04 | 4% | 394 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 4% | 431 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 4% | 438 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 5% | 469 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 5% | 528 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 5% | 543 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 5% | 535 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 5% | 536 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 5% | 538 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 5% | 482 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 5% | 473 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 4% | 396 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 4% | 359 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 4% | 363 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 4% | 350 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 3% | 327 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 2% | 229 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Patrick Mahomes was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jaxson Dart QB · NYG 2%
- Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 2%
- Tony Pollard RB · TEN 2%
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 2%
Usually taken just after
- Dak Prescott QB · DAL 2%
- Jaxson Dart QB · NYG 2%
- Courtland Sutton WR · DEN 2%
- Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Patrick Mahomes was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.