DEN · Bye 10
Bo Nix
LMD QB23 for Week 4 · 14.9 projected Full PPR points
In season
Week 4 fantasy ranking
We project 14.9 points this week, QB23. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 36% · Top 24: 75% of simulated weeks. Down 2 since Week 3.
Week 4
QB23
44th by projected points
Projected
14.9
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
36%
Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 75% at QB
Movement
↓ 2
QB21 in Week 3, QB23 now
Should you start Bo Nix in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Bo Nix QB23 for Week 4, outside the QB12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside QB12 in 36% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
QB23 vs QB16 -7
LMD has him QB23. The fantasy draft market has him QB16, 7 places higher.
Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.06 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.08 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.79 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.14 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight positive+0.38 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
The Bo Nix experience: How Broncos QB led 13 game-winning drives
gazette.com ·
-
Bo Nix gets unexpected verdict after his roller-coaster start to 2026
yardbarker.com ·
-
August 09 2025 Santa Clara Calif USA Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix 10runs away from San Francisco defensive end Bryce Huff 47 during the NFL, American Football Herren, USA Preseason Football game
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Bo Nix believes the Broncos are close to having a complete game effort
al.com ·
-
Bo Nix and the Broncos look to fix slow starts entering clash with 49ers
dothaneagle.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Bo Nix by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Bo Nix has averaged +0.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ KC | 14.4 | 5.4 | -9.0 |
| Wk 2 | vs JAX | 14.6 | 14.1 | -0.5 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAR | 14.3 | 24.1 | +9.8 |
| Wk 4 | @ SF | 14.9 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB15. This week LMD has him 8 spots lower, at QB23.
Preseason market: QB15 · ADP 109.6
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 4
QB23 −8
LMD has him 8 spots lower than his QB15 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB15 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Bo Nix #18 in 1QB and #7 in Superflex, QB4 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#18
QB4 · tier 8 · of 297
Superflex
#7
QB4 · tier 3 · of 303
- Last season 304.8 pts 17.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 35.0 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
9.03
pick 98.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.01
half of simulations take him by pick 97
Draft range
7.08 - 10.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.01 in 52% of simulations
Pick 97 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 1, the same seat picks again at 10.12, where he is available in 10% of simulations.
Slot 1's remaining turns: 9.01 52% · 10.12 10% · 11.01 9% · 12.12 <1% · 13.01 <1% · 14.12 <1% · 15.01 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.03 and 10.01.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.11 | 57% |
| 8.12 | 55% |
| 9.01 | 52% |
| 9.02 | 50% |
| 9.03 | 47% |
| 9.04 | 45% |
| 9.05 | 43% |
| 9.06 | 41% |
| 9.07 | 39% |
| 9.08 | 36% |
| 9.09 | 34% |
| 9.10 | 32% |
| 9.11 | 30% |
| 9.12 | 28% |
| 10.01 | 26% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.08-7.09 | 4% | 377 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 4% | 355 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 4% | 412 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 4% | 443 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 5% | 453 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 5% | 496 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 5% | 475 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 6% | 558 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 5% | 497 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 5% | 455 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 4% | 438 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 5% | 463 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 4% | 413 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 4% | 386 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 4% | 377 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 3% | 331 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04-10.05 | 3% | 314 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.06-10.07 | 3% | 296 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.08-10.09 | 3% | 262 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.11 | 2% | 217 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.12 | <1% | 87 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Bo Nix was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Makai Lemon WR · PHI 2%
- J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN 2%
- Trevor Lawrence QB · JAX 2%
- Dak Prescott QB · DAL 2%
Usually taken just after
- Dak Prescott QB · DAL 2%
- Brock Purdy QB · SF 2%
- George Kittle TE · SF 2%
- Oronde Gadsden II TE · LAC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Bo Nix was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.