DAL · Bye 14
Dak Prescott
LMD QB7 for Week 4 · 16.8 projected Full PPR points
In season
Week 4 fantasy ranking
We project 16.8 points this week, QB7. Top 3: 11% · Top 12: 45% · Top 24: 81% of simulated weeks. Up 3 since Week 3.
Week 4
QB7
17th by projected points
Projected
16.8
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
45%
Top 3: 11% · Top 24: 81% at QB
Movement
↑ 3
QB10 in Week 3, QB7 now
Should you start Dak Prescott in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Dak Prescott QB7 for Week 4, inside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 45% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.43 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.72 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.87 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral-0.03 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.33 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Cowboys’ Dak Prescott is overjoyed to have ‘playmaker’ Joey Porter Jr.
bundle.app ·
-
ESPN star Mina Kimes accuses Stephen A Smith of 'double standard' in Dak Prescott debate
themirror.com ·
-
Dak Prescott Hypes Joey Porter Jr.'s Trade to Cowboys from Steelers, CB Can 'Shut a Side Down'
Bleacher Report ·
-
Mina Kimes Challenges Stephen A Smith's 'Double Standard' for Dak Prescott
newsweek.com ·
-
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott sets the play against the Baltimore Ravens during the game at Maracana Stadium.
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Dak Prescott by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Dak Prescott has averaged +4.2 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ NYG | 16.7 | 14.4 | -2.3 |
| Wk 2 | vs WAS | 17.4 | 29.8 | +12.4 |
| Wk 3 | vs BAL | 16.5 | 18.9 | +2.4 |
| Wk 4 | @ HOU | 16.8 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB5. This week LMD has him 2 spots lower, at QB7.
Preseason market: QB5 · ADP 65.3
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 4
QB7 −2
LMD has him 2 spots lower than his QB5 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB5 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Dak Prescott #66 in 1QB and #42 in Superflex, QB17 at his position. Age 33.
1QB
#66
QB17 · tier 18 · of 297
Superflex
#42
QB17 · tier 10 · of 303
- Last season 313.8 pts 18.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 84% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 35.3 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
9.04
pick 99.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
9.02
half of simulations take him by pick 98
Draft range
7.09 - 10.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 9.02 in 52% of simulations
Pick 98 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 10.11, where he is available in 11% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 9.02 52% · 10.11 11% · 11.02 8% · 12.11 <1% · 13.02 <1% · 14.11 <1% · 15.02 <1%
The middle half of simulations take him between 8.05 and 10.01.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.12 | 58% |
| 9.01 | 55% |
| 9.02 | 52% |
| 9.03 | 50% |
| 9.04 | 47% |
| 9.05 | 44% |
| 9.06 | 42% |
| 9.07 | 39% |
| 9.08 | 37% |
| 9.09 | 35% |
| 9.10 | 33% |
| 9.11 | 31% |
| 9.12 | 29% |
| 10.01 | 27% |
| 10.02 | 25% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.09-7.10 | 3% | 342 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 4% | 367 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 4% | 424 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 5% | 498 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 5% | 456 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 5% | 477 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 6% | 576 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 5% | 498 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 5% | 526 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03-9.04 | 5% | 535 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.05-9.06 | 5% | 492 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.07-9.08 | 4% | 419 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.09-9.10 | 4% | 432 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.11-9.12 | 4% | 405 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.01-10.02 | 4% | 370 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.03-10.04 | 3% | 334 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.05-10.06 | 4% | 357 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.08 | 3% | 257 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.09-10.10 | 2% | 249 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.11-10.12 | 2% | 216 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Dak Prescott was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 2%
- Bo Nix QB · DEN 2%
- Brock Purdy QB · SF 2%
- Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brock Purdy QB · SF 2%
- Kenny Gainwell RB · TB 2%
- Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB 2%
- Brian Robinson RB · ATL 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Dak Prescott was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.