LAC · Bye 7
Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert comes off the board at 7.07 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 7.06.
12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulated ADP
7.07
pick 78.6 overall, on average
Median pick
7.06
half of simulations take him by pick 78
Draft range
5.11 - 9.03
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 7.06 in 50% of simulations
Pick 78 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 8.07, where he is available in 22% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 7.06 50% · 8.07 22% · 9.06 8% · 10.07 1% · 11.06 <1% · 12.07 <1% · 13.06 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 6.07 and 8.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.04 | 55% |
| 7.05 | 53% |
| 7.06 | 50% |
| 7.07 | 48% |
| 7.08 | 45% |
| 7.09 | 43% |
| 7.10 | 41% |
| 7.11 | 38% |
| 7.12 | 36% |
| 8.01 | 34% |
| 8.02 | 31% |
| 8.03 | 30% |
| 8.04 | 28% |
| 8.05 | 26% |
| 8.06 | 24% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 5.11-5.12 | 3% | 338 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01-6.02 | 4% | 368 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03-6.04 | 3% | 349 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05-6.06 | 4% | 412 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07-6.08 | 5% | 452 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.09-6.10 | 5% | 453 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.11-6.12 | 5% | 498 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01-7.02 | 5% | 471 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03-7.04 | 5% | 453 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 5% | 486 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 5% | 506 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 5% | 484 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 5% | 451 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 4% | 398 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 4% | 379 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 4% | 368 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 3% | 348 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 3% | 297 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.11-8.12 | 3% | 267 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.01-9.02 | 2% | 214 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.03 | 1% | 112 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Justin Herbert was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 2%
- Kyle Pitts TE · ATL 2%
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE 2%
- Brian Thomas WR · JAX 2%
Usually taken just after
- Kyle Pitts TE · ATL 2%
- Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 2%
- Tony Pollard RB · TEN 2%
- Harold Fannin TE · CLE 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.
Justin Herbert was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.
We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.1
- Generated
- August 20, 2026
- Player dataset
- sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.