LAR · Bye 11
Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford comes off the board at 13.02 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 12.08.
12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulated ADP
13.02
pick 145.5 overall, on average
Median pick
12.08
half of simulations take him by pick 140
Draft range
11.05 - 15.06
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 7,956 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.08 in 61% of simulations
Pick 140 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 13.05, where he is available in 48% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 12.08 61% · 13.05 48% · 14.08 41% · 15.05 31%
The middle half of simulations take him between 11.11 and 14.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.06 | 66% |
| 12.07 | 63% |
| 12.08 | 61% |
| 12.09 | 59% |
| 12.10 | 56% |
| 12.11 | 54% |
| 12.12 | 51% |
| 13.01 | 49% |
| 13.02 | 49% |
| 13.03 | 48% |
| 13.04 | 48% |
| 13.05 | 48% |
| 13.06 | 47% |
| 13.07 | 47% |
| 13.08 | 47% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 11.05-11.07 | 6% | 604 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.08-11.10 | 6% | 632 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.11-12.01 | 6% | 614 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.04 | 7% | 652 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.05-12.07 | 7% | 690 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.10 | 7% | 743 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.11-13.01 | 5% | 509 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.04 | <1% | 90 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.07 | <1% | 84 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.10 | <1% | 83 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-14.01 | 1% | 123 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.04 | 2% | 195 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.07 | 2% | 187 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.10 | 2% | 229 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-15.01 | 3% | 338 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.04 | 4% | 445 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 3% | 263 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 7956 simulations in which Matthew Stafford was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Woody Marks RB · HOU 2%
- Baker Mayfield QB · TB 2%
- Jalen Coker WR · CAR 2%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 2%
Usually taken just after
- Trey Benson RB · ARI 2%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 2%
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
- Rachaad White RB · WAS 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.
Matthew Stafford was selected in 7956 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.
We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.1
- Generated
- August 20, 2026
- Player dataset
- sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
- Baseline
- rank
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Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.