LAR · Bye 11
Matthew Stafford
LMD QB16 for Week 4 · 15.1 projected Full PPR points
In season
Week 4 fantasy ranking
We project 15.1 points this week, QB16. Top 3: 8% · Top 12: 37% · Top 24: 77% of simulated weeks.
Week 4
QB16
37th by projected points
Projected
15.1
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
37%
Top 3: 8% · Top 24: 77% at QB
Movement
—
Unchanged: QB16 in Week 3
Should you start Matthew Stafford in Week 4?
Borderline
It is close. LMD ranks Matthew Stafford QB16 for Week 4, just outside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 37% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
QB16 vs QB11 -5
LMD has him QB16. The fantasy draft market has him QB11, 5 places higher.
Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.46 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.47 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.81 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.07 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.37 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Matthew Stafford, Rams Receive Crucial Puka Nacua News After Aaron Donald Ruled Out Against Eagles
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Rams’ Matthew Stafford knocking on door of rare NFL history
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Matthew Stafford close to becoming the first QB with 150 touchdowns on two teams
NBC Sports ·
-
Matthew Stafford reveals real reason he made Taylor Swift cameo
nypost.com ·
-
Matthew Stafford reveals major reason behind his cameo in Taylor Swift's "Patient Zero"
sportskeeda.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Matthew Stafford by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Matthew Stafford has averaged +2.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs SF | 15.6 | 4.1 | -11.5 |
| Wk 2 | vs NYG | 13.5 | 27.0 | +13.5 |
| Wk 3 | @ DEN | 15.1 | 20.9 | +5.8 |
| Wk 4 | @ PHI | 15.1 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB6. This week LMD has him 10 spots lower, at QB16.
Preseason market: QB6 · ADP 74.2
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 4
QB16 −10
LMD has him 10 spots lower than his QB6 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB6 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Matthew Stafford #55 in 1QB and #29 in Superflex, QB13 at his position. Age 38.
1QB
#55
QB13 · tier 15 · of 297
Superflex
#29
QB13 · tier 7 · of 303
- Last season 350.4 pts 20.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 96% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 34.2 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
13.04
pick 148.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
12.10
half of simulations take him by pick 142
Draft range
11.08 - 15.07
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 7,852 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 12.10 in 62% of simulations
Pick 142 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 3, the same seat picks again at 13.03, where he is available in 54% of simulations.
Slot 3's remaining turns: 12.10 62% · 13.03 54% · 14.10 43% · 15.03 37%
The middle half of simulations take him between 12.01 and 14.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 12.08 | 67% |
| 12.09 | 64% |
| 12.10 | 62% |
| 12.11 | 59% |
| 12.12 | 57% |
| 13.01 | 54% |
| 13.02 | 54% |
| 13.03 | 54% |
| 13.04 | 53% |
| 13.05 | 53% |
| 13.06 | 53% |
| 13.07 | 52% |
| 13.08 | 52% |
| 13.09 | 52% |
| 13.10 | 51% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 11.08-11.09 | 4% | 385 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.11 | 4% | 399 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.12-12.01 | 4% | 412 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.02-12.03 | 4% | 441 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.05 | 5% | 489 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.06-12.07 | 4% | 442 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.08-12.09 | 5% | 476 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.11 | 5% | 520 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.12-13.01 | 3% | 280 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.02-13.03 | <1% | 49 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.05 | <1% | 69 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.06-13.07 | <1% | 61 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.08-13.09 | <1% | 68 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.11 | <1% | 55 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.12-14.01 | 1% | 121 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.02-14.03 | 2% | 159 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.05 | 1% | 143 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06-14.07 | 2% | 164 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08-14.09 | 2% | 175 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 2% | 200 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12-15.01 | 3% | 286 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02-15.03 | 3% | 322 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04-15.05 | 3% | 340 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06-15.07 | 3% | 327 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 7852 simulations in which Matthew Stafford was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Matthew Golden WR · GB 2%
- Baker Mayfield QB · TB 2%
- Jayden Higgins WR · HOU 2%
- Jauan Jennings WR · MIN 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 2%
- Emmett Johnson RB · KC 2%
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB · NYG 2%
- Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Matthew Stafford was selected in 7852 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.