BUF · Bye 7
Josh Allen
Josh Allen comes off the board at 3.08 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 3.09.
12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulated ADP
3.08
pick 32.4 overall, on average
Median pick
3.09
half of simulations take him by pick 33
Draft range
2.08 - 4.09
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.09 in 52% of simulations
Pick 33 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 9, the same seat picks again at 4.04, where he is available in 25% of simulations.
Slot 9's remaining turns: 3.09 52% · 4.04 25% · 5.09 <1% · 6.04 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.02 and 4.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.07 | 60% |
| 3.08 | 56% |
| 3.09 | 52% |
| 3.10 | 48% |
| 3.11 | 44% |
| 3.12 | 40% |
| 4.01 | 36% |
| 4.02 | 32% |
| 4.03 | 28% |
| 4.04 | 25% |
| 4.05 | 21% |
| 4.06 | 18% |
| 4.07 | 15% |
| 4.08 | 13% |
| 4.09 | 11% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.08-2.09 | 3% | 298 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.10-2.11 | 4% | 395 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12-3.01 | 6% | 559 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02-3.03 | 7% | 671 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04-3.05 | 7% | 727 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06-3.07 | 8% | 797 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08-3.09 | 8% | 794 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10-3.11 | 8% | 794 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12-4.01 | 8% | 774 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02-4.03 | 7% | 723 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04-4.05 | 7% | 674 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06-4.07 | 5% | 508 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08-4.09 | 4% | 438 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Josh Allen was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Brock Bowers TE · LV 3%
- Rashee Rice WR · KC 3%
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 3%
- Malik Nabers WR · NYG 3%
Usually taken just after
- Josh Jacobs RB · GB 3%
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 3%
- Javonte Williams RB · DAL 3%
- Brock Bowers TE · LV 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.
Josh Allen was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.
We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.1
- Generated
- August 20, 2026
- Player dataset
- sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.