BUF · Bye 7
Josh Allen
LMD QB1 for Week 4 · 19.5 projected Full PPR points
Questionable
In season
Week 4 fantasy ranking
We project 19.5 points this week, QB1. Top 3: 22% · Top 12: 53% · Top 24: 80% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable.
Week 4
QB1
4th by projected points
Projected
19.5
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
53%
Top 3: 22% · Top 24: 80% at QB
Movement
—
Unchanged: QB1 in Week 3
Should you start Josh Allen in Week 4?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Josh Allen QB1 for Week 4, inside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 53% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Negative-0.57 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.79 pts
- AvailabilityQuestionable
- Negative-1.04 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.38 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight positive+0.43 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Mike Vrabel Identifies The Josh Allen Problem That Starts After The Snap
Yahoo Sports ·
-
NFL MVP watch: Josh Allen is in front ... but it's early, and the field is closing
The Buffalo News ·
-
Josh Allen can make NFL history with a win over the Patriots
kens5.com ·
-
Josh Allen seeks to put sloppy play behind him as Bills host Patriots
romesentinel.com ·
-
Patriots worried about ‘second play’ with Bills QB Josh Allen
patspulpit.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Josh Allen by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Josh Allen has averaged +8.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ HOU | 21.2 | 35.7 | +14.5 |
| Wk 2 | vs DET | 26.2 | 40.8 | +14.6 |
| Wk 3 | vs LAC | 21.4 | 17.5 | -3.9 |
| Wk 4 | vs NE | 19.5 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB1, and this week LMD still has him there.
Preseason market: QB1 · ADP 32.9
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 4
QB1 Even
Level with his QB1 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB1 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Josh Allen #8 in 1QB and #2 in Superflex, QB1 at his position. Age 30.
1QB
#8
QB1 · tier 4 · of 297
Superflex
#2
QB1 · tier 1 · of 303
- Last season 364.6 pts 22.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 95% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 30.2 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
3.04
pick 28.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
3.04
half of simulations take him by pick 28
Draft range
2.11 - 3.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 3.04 in 59% of simulations
Pick 28 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 4, the same seat picks again at 4.09, where he is available in <1% of simulations.
Slot 4's remaining turns: 3.04 59% · 4.09 <1% · 5.04 <1% · 6.09 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 3.02 and 3.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 3.02 | 77% |
| 3.03 | 69% |
| 3.04 | 59% |
| 3.05 | 49% |
| 3.06 | 38% |
| 3.07 | 29% |
| 3.08 | 22% |
| 3.09 | 16% |
| 3.10 | 12% |
| 3.11 | 9% |
| 3.12 | 6% |
| 4.01 | 5% |
| 4.02 | 3% |
| 4.03 | 2% |
| 4.04 | 1% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 2.11 | 4% | 350 of 10000 simulations |
| 2.12 | 5% | 457 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.01 | 7% | 680 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.02 | 8% | 808 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.03 | 9% | 941 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.04 | 10% | 1013 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.05 | 11% | 1076 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.06 | 9% | 948 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.07 | 7% | 691 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.08 | 6% | 585 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.09 | 4% | 416 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.10 | 3% | 315 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Josh Allen was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jeremiyah Love RB · ARI 7%
- Brock Bowers TE · LV 5%
- George Pickens WR · DAL 5%
- Malik Nabers WR · NYG 5%
Usually taken just after
- Jeremiyah Love RB · ARI 7%
- Trey McBride TE · ARI 6%
- Brock Bowers TE · LV 5%
- Rashee Rice WR · KC 5%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Josh Allen was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.