PHI · Bye 10
Jalen Hurts
LMD QB27 for Week 4 · 14.2 projected Full PPR points
In season
Week 4 fantasy ranking
We project 14.2 points this week, QB27. Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 33% · Top 24: 73% of simulated weeks. Down 22 since Week 3.
Week 4
QB27
56th by projected points
Projected
14.2
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
33%
Top 3: 6% · Top 24: 73% at QB
Movement
↓ 22
QB5 in Week 3, QB27 now
Should you start Jalen Hurts in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Jalen Hurts QB27 for Week 4, outside the QB12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside QB12 in 33% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
QB27 vs QB4 -23
LMD has him QB27. The fantasy draft market has him QB4, 23 places higher.
Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline and our projection is lower than the outside forecast.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral-0.05 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.42 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.74 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+0.62 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.50 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Jalen Hurts’ downfield passing offers hope for struggling Eagles
cumberlink.com ·
-
Bears LB D'Marco Jackson not fined for hit on Jalen Hurts
nbcphiladelphia.com ·
-
"Rams getting lucky again" "He is tired of bum Jalen Hurts": NFL fans react to DeVonta Smith being ruled out for Week 4 game
sportskeeda.com ·
-
Rams catch massive break as Eagles QB Jalen Hurts left to embody famous Will Smith meme
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Eagles WR depth chart: Jalen Hurts likely to be without top target DeVonta Smith vs. Rams
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jalen Hurts by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Jalen Hurts has averaged -1.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs WAS | 19.1 | 24.7 | +5.6 |
| Wk 2 | @ TEN | 21.1 | 16.2 | -4.9 |
| Wk 3 | @ CHI | 17.5 | 12.6 | -4.9 |
| Wk 4 | vs LAR | 14.2 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB8. This week LMD has him 19 spots lower, at QB27.
Preseason market: QB8 · ADP 75.9
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 4
QB27 −19
LMD has him 19 spots lower than his QB8 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB8 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jalen Hurts #24 in 1QB and #12 in Superflex, QB5 at his position. Age 28.
1QB
#24
QB5 · tier 10 · of 297
Superflex
#12
QB5 · tier 4 · of 303
- Last season 301.1 pts 18.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 94% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 27.7 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
7.06
pick 78.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
7.06
half of simulations take him by pick 78
Draft range
5.12 - 8.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 7.06 in 51% of simulations
Pick 78 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 6, the same seat picks again at 8.07, where he is available in 19% of simulations.
Slot 6's remaining turns: 7.06 51% · 8.07 19% · 9.06 4% · 10.07 <1% · 11.06 <1% · 12.07 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 6.08 and 8.04.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.04 | 56% |
| 7.05 | 54% |
| 7.06 | 51% |
| 7.07 | 48% |
| 7.08 | 45% |
| 7.09 | 43% |
| 7.10 | 40% |
| 7.11 | 37% |
| 7.12 | 35% |
| 8.01 | 32% |
| 8.02 | 30% |
| 8.03 | 27% |
| 8.04 | 25% |
| 8.05 | 23% |
| 8.06 | 21% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 5.12-6.01 | 3% | 311 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.02-6.03 | 3% | 340 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.04-6.05 | 4% | 390 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.06-6.07 | 4% | 422 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.08-6.09 | 4% | 439 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.10-6.11 | 5% | 534 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.12-7.01 | 5% | 483 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.02-7.03 | 6% | 554 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 5% | 498 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 6% | 582 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 5% | 524 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 5% | 537 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 5% | 510 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 4% | 437 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 4% | 439 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 4% | 396 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 3% | 348 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 3% | 317 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12 | 1% | 136 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Jalen Hurts was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 2%
- Justin Herbert QB · LAC 2%
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 2%
- Tucker Kraft TE · GB 2%
Usually taken just after
- Kyle Pitts TE · ATL 3%
- Tucker Kraft TE · GB 2%
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 2%
- Justin Herbert QB · LAC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jalen Hurts was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.