CAR · Bye 5
Bryce Young
LMD QB4 for Week 4 · 17.3 projected Half PPR points
In season
Week 4 fantasy ranking
We project 17.3 points this week, QB4. Top 3: 14% · Top 12: 48% · Top 24: 83% of simulated weeks. Down 1 since Week 3.
Week 4
QB4
8th by projected points
Projected
17.3
week 4, Half PPR
Top 12
48%
Top 3: 14% · Top 24: 83% at QB
Movement
↓ 1
QB3 in Week 3, QB4 now
Should you start Bryce Young in Week 4?
Strong start
Yes, in any standard format. LMD ranks Bryce Young QB4 for Week 4, inside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 48% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
QB4 vs QB18 +14
LMD has him QB4. The fantasy draft market has him QB18, 14 places lower.
Sportsbooks pricing him above our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.43 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.29 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.90 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.49 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-0.89 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
From Charlotte Christian to South Bend: Bryce Young, Micah Gilbert reunite at Notre Dame
wndu.com ·
-
Lions players know how 'dynamic' Panthers QB Bryce Young can be. They've seen it
freep.com ·
-
Bryce Young ready to play in Week 4
USA TODAY ·
-
Bryce Young fully practices Thursday
USA TODAY ·
-
Panthers have a clear offensive plan to keep pace against Lions despite this being a dream matchup for QB Bryce Young
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Bryce Young by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Bryce Young has averaged +8.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CHI | 12.2 | 31.4 | +19.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ ATL | 14.8 | 24.1 | +9.3 |
| Wk 3 | @ CLE | 17.7 | 13.6 | -4.1 |
| Wk 4 | vs DET | 17.3 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Bryce Young #77 in 1QB and #51 in Superflex, QB18 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#77
QB18 · tier 19 · of 297
Superflex
#51
QB18 · tier 11 · of 303
- Last season 218.0 pts 13.6 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 91% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 29.8 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.09
pick 177.4 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.10
half of simulations take him by pick 178
Draft range
15.07 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 1,027 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.10 in 95% of simulations
Pick 178 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.08 and 15.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.08 | 98% |
| 15.09 | 97% |
| 15.10 | 95% |
| 15.11 | 94% |
| 15.12 | 92% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | <1% | 8 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | <1% | 9 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | <1% | 22 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | <1% | 32 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | <1% | 75 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 1% | 131 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 184 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 167 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 183 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 205 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 1027 simulations in which Bryce Young was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Colby Parkinson TE · LAR 3%
- Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA 3%
- Sam Darnold QB · SEA 3%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jake Bates K · DET 2%
- Braelon Allen RB · NYJ 2%
- Will Reichard K · MIN 2%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Bryce Young was selected in 1027 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.