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QB

MIA · Bye 6

Malik Willis

LMD QB29 for Week 4 · 12.0 projected Half PPR points

In season

Week 4 fantasy ranking

We project 12.0 points this week, QB29. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 20% · Top 24: 63% of simulated weeks. Down 5 since Week 3.

Week 4

QB29

60th by projected points

Projected

12.0

week 4, Half PPR

Top 12

20%

Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 63% at QB

Movement

↓ 5

QB24 in Week 3, QB29 now

Should you start Malik Willis in Week 4?

Bench

Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Malik Willis QB29 for Week 4, outside the QB12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside QB12 in 20% of simulated weeks.

The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.

Half PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

All QB rankings · Projected points board

Updates

Recent updates

Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Malik Willis by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.

Season performance

Performance vs. projection

Over 3 completed games Malik Willis has averaged +0.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.

Actual pointsLMD projectionLikely range (middle 80%)
Week by week for Malik Willis, Half PPR scoring
Week Opp Proj Actual Delta
Wk 1 @ LV 12.5 16.7 +4.2
Wk 2 @ SF 11.3 12.5 +1.2
Wk 3 vs KC 14.3 10.0 -4.3
Wk 4 @ MIN 12.0 Pending —

Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.

Dynasty

Long-term value

LMD's dynasty model has Malik Willis #268 in Superflex. Age 27.

1QB

--

Not ranked on this board

Superflex

#268

QB47 · tier 55 · of 303

  • Last season 51.2 pts 12.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
  • Availability 25% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
  • History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
  • Attempts 7.6 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.

LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.

Dynasty rankings Dynasty QB rankings

Draft season Draft position and availability

ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.

Simulated draft position

Where he goes

Simulation average

15.05

pick 173.2 overall, averaged over every simulated draft

Median pick

15.06

half of simulations take him by pick 174

Draft range

14.11 - 15.11

the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)

Simulations

10,000

drafted in 2,335 of them

Filters

League format

League size 12 teams also published: 14 teams
Scoring Half PPR also published: Standard
QB format 1QB also published: Superflex
Pool Redraft

Availability

Odds he reaches your pick

Available at 15.06 in 89% of simulations

Pick 174 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations

The middle half of simulations take him between 15.02 and 15.09.

Malik Willis still on the board
PickAvailable
15.04 92%
15.05 91%
15.06 89%
15.07 87%
15.08 86%
15.09 84%
15.10 82%
15.11 80%
15.12 78%

Distribution

Draft position distribution

Share of simulations in which Malik Willis was selected at each pick, 14.11 through 15.11. He goes earlier than this window in 2%, later in 2%, undrafted in 77%.
Draft position distribution for Malik Willis
PickShare of simulationsCount
14.11<1%48 of 10000 simulations
14.12<1%62 of 10000 simulations
15.011%149 of 10000 simulations
15.022%173 of 10000 simulations
15.032%170 of 10000 simulations
15.041%145 of 10000 simulations
15.052%157 of 10000 simulations
15.062%174 of 10000 simulations
15.072%157 of 10000 simulations
15.082%197 of 10000 simulations
15.092%179 of 10000 simulations
15.102%173 of 10000 simulations
15.112%206 of 10000 simulations

Draft context

Who goes around him

Measured over the 2335 simulations in which Malik Willis was drafted.

Usually taken just before

Usually taken just after

Methodology

How this is measured

Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.

Malik Willis was selected in 2335 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.

Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.

A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.

Simulation model
simulation-v1.2
Generated
October 1, 2026
Player dataset
nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
Baseline
mixed
Market prior
ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)

Next

Draft it yourself

Mock a 12-team Half PPR 1QB draft

Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.