JAX · Bye 7
Trevor Lawrence
LMD QB11 for Week 4 · 16.3 projected Full PPR points
In season
Week 4 fantasy ranking
We project 16.3 points this week, QB11. Top 3: 11% · Top 12: 44% · Top 24: 80% of simulated weeks. Up 2 since Week 3.
Week 4
QB11
23rd by projected points
Projected
16.3
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
44%
Top 3: 11% · Top 24: 80% at QB
Movement
↑ 2
QB13 in Week 3, QB11 now
Should you start Trevor Lawrence in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Trevor Lawrence QB11 for Week 4, inside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 44% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.07 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.03 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.86 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.27 pts
- Betting markets
- Positive+1.02 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdown passes last week.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence face last AFC team he hasn't beaten: Bengals
jacksonville.com ·
-
How Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence can make personal history in Week 4 vs. Bengals
Sporting News ·
-
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is gaining ground in the NFL MVP race.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Trevor Lawrence explains how ‘boring’ plays lead to Jaguars victories
jacksonville.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Trevor Lawrence by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Trevor Lawrence has averaged +1.6 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs CLE | 14.9 | 26.1 | +11.2 |
| Wk 2 | @ DEN | 16.8 | 6.2 | -10.6 |
| Wk 3 | vs NE | 15.7 | 19.8 | +4.1 |
| Wk 4 | @ CIN | 16.3 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB11, and this week LMD still has him there.
Preseason market: QB11 · ADP 91.1
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 4
QB11 Even
Level with his QB11 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB11 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Trevor Lawrence #28 in 1QB and #16 in Superflex, QB7 at his position. Age 26.
1QB
#28
QB7 · tier 11 · of 297
Superflex
#16
QB7 · tier 5 · of 303
- Last season 338.2 pts 19.9 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 86% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 32.0 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
8.09
pick 92.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
8.08
half of simulations take him by pick 92
Draft range
7.02 - 10.04
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 8.08 in 51% of simulations
Pick 92 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 5, the same seat picks again at 9.05, where he is available in 29% of simulations.
Slot 5's remaining turns: 8.08 51% · 9.05 29% · 10.08 7% · 11.05 2% · 12.08 <1% · 13.05 <1% · 14.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 7.10 and 9.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 8.06 | 56% |
| 8.07 | 54% |
| 8.08 | 51% |
| 8.09 | 48% |
| 8.10 | 45% |
| 8.11 | 43% |
| 8.12 | 41% |
| 9.01 | 38% |
| 9.02 | 36% |
| 9.03 | 34% |
| 9.04 | 31% |
| 9.05 | 29% |
| 9.06 | 27% |
| 9.07 | 26% |
| 9.08 | 24% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 7.02-7.03 | 3% | 348 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.04-7.05 | 4% | 361 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.06-7.07 | 4% | 388 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.08-7.09 | 4% | 432 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.10-7.11 | 5% | 460 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.12-8.01 | 5% | 468 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.02-8.03 | 5% | 458 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.04-8.05 | 5% | 524 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.06-8.07 | 5% | 523 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.08-8.09 | 6% | 555 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.10-8.11 | 5% | 494 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.12-9.01 | 5% | 491 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.02-9.03 | 4% | 418 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.04-9.05 | 4% | 397 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.06-9.07 | 3% | 346 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.08-9.09 | 4% | 385 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.10-9.11 | 4% | 357 of 10000 simulations |
| 9.12-10.01 | 3% | 275 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.02-10.03 | 3% | 266 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.04 | 1% | 130 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Trevor Lawrence was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Blake Corum RB · LAR 2%
- Jaxson Dart QB · NYG 2%
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 2%
- Justin Herbert QB · LAC 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jaxson Dart QB · NYG 2%
- Makai Lemon WR · PHI 2%
- Michael Wilson WR · ARI 2%
- Patrick Mahomes QB · KC 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Trevor Lawrence was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.