BAL · Bye 13
Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson comes off the board at 5.02 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 5.02.
12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulated ADP
5.02
pick 49.9 overall, on average
Median pick
5.02
half of simulations take him by pick 50
Draft range
3.09 - 6.06
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 5.02 in 52% of simulations
Pick 50 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 2, the same seat picks again at 6.11, where he is available in 4% of simulations.
Slot 2's remaining turns: 5.02 52% · 6.11 4% · 7.02 2% · 8.11 <1% · 9.02 <1% · 10.11 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 4.05 and 5.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.12 | 58% |
| 5.01 | 55% |
| 5.02 | 52% |
| 5.03 | 49% |
| 5.04 | 46% |
| 5.05 | 43% |
| 5.06 | 40% |
| 5.07 | 37% |
| 5.08 | 34% |
| 5.09 | 31% |
| 5.10 | 28% |
| 5.11 | 26% |
| 5.12 | 23% |
| 6.01 | 21% |
| 6.02 | 18% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.09-3.10 | 3% | 264 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.11-3.12 | 3% | 317 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01-4.02 | 4% | 384 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03-4.04 | 4% | 429 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05-4.06 | 5% | 462 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07-4.08 | 5% | 538 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09-4.10 | 6% | 601 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11-4.12 | 6% | 619 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01-5.02 | 6% | 592 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03-5.04 | 6% | 616 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05-5.06 | 6% | 593 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07-5.08 | 6% | 581 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09-5.10 | 5% | 526 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11-5.12 | 5% | 495 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01-6.02 | 5% | 467 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03-6.04 | 4% | 385 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05-6.06 | 3% | 305 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Lamar Jackson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Caleb Williams QB · CHI 3%
- Tyler Warren TE · IND 3%
- Joe Burrow QB · CIN 2%
- Colston Loveland TE · CHI 2%
Usually taken just after
- Tyler Warren TE · IND 3%
- Joe Burrow QB · CIN 2%
- TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE 2%
- Colston Loveland TE · CHI 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.
Lamar Jackson was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.
We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.1
- Generated
- August 20, 2026
- Player dataset
- sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.