CIN · Bye 6
Joe Burrow
LMD QB8 for Week 4 · 16.6 projected Full PPR points
Questionable
In season
Week 4 fantasy ranking
We project 16.6 points this week, QB8. Top 3: 13% · Top 12: 43% · Top 24: 75% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable. Up 4 since Week 3.
Week 4
QB8
18th by projected points
Projected
16.6
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
43%
Top 3: 13% · Top 24: 75% at QB
Movement
↑ 4
QB12 in Week 3, QB8 now
Should you start Joe Burrow in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Joe Burrow QB8 for Week 4, inside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 43% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
QB8 vs QB3 -5
LMD has him QB8. The fantasy draft market has him QB3, 5 places higher.
Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.26 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.27 pts
- AvailabilityQuestionable
- Negative-0.87 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.17 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.01 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Bengals News: Joe Burrow on Pace for Career Year
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Bengals vs. Jaguars prediction: Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence duel in battle of AFC contenders
CBS Sports ·
-
Why this legendary Bengals QB picks Joe Burrow over Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes while shutting down trade narrative
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Ken Anderson's blunt answer on if Joe Burrow will leave Bengals
Yahoo Sports ·
-
The 1-34 Joe Burrow stat is real, but doesn't tell the whole story
cincinnati.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Joe Burrow by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Joe Burrow has averaged +0.4 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs TB | 18.0 | 14.2 | -3.8 |
| Wk 2 | @ HOU | 18.0 | 16.2 | -1.8 |
| Wk 3 | @ PIT | 15.7 | 22.6 | +6.9 |
| Wk 4 | vs JAX | 16.6 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB3. This week LMD has him 5 spots lower, at QB8.
Preseason market: QB3 · ADP 54.5
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 4
QB8 −5
LMD has him 5 spots lower than his QB3 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB3 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Joe Burrow #130 in 1QB and #117 in Superflex, QB27 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#130
QB27 · tier 29 · of 297
Superflex
#117
QB27 · tier 20 · of 303
- Last season 134.5 pts 16.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 65% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 35.0 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
5.08
pick 56.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
5.08
half of simulations take him by pick 56
Draft range
4.05 - 6.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 5.08 in 53% of simulations
Pick 56 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 8, the same seat picks again at 6.05, where he is available in 25% of simulations.
Slot 8's remaining turns: 5.08 53% · 6.05 25% · 7.08 1% · 8.05 <1% · 9.08 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 4.12 and 6.05.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 5.06 | 60% |
| 5.07 | 57% |
| 5.08 | 53% |
| 5.09 | 50% |
| 5.10 | 46% |
| 5.11 | 43% |
| 5.12 | 40% |
| 6.01 | 36% |
| 6.02 | 34% |
| 6.03 | 31% |
| 6.04 | 28% |
| 6.05 | 25% |
| 6.06 | 22% |
| 6.07 | 20% |
| 6.08 | 17% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 4.05-4.06 | 3% | 330 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07-4.08 | 4% | 357 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09-4.10 | 5% | 453 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11-4.12 | 4% | 442 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.01-5.02 | 6% | 560 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.03-5.04 | 6% | 599 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.05-5.06 | 6% | 608 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.07-5.08 | 7% | 682 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.09-5.10 | 7% | 698 of 10000 simulations |
| 5.11-5.12 | 6% | 627 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.01-6.02 | 6% | 578 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.03-6.04 | 6% | 567 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05-6.06 | 5% | 524 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07-6.08 | 5% | 508 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.09-6.10 | 4% | 401 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.11 | 2% | 167 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Joe Burrow was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- David Montgomery RB · HOU 3%
- Caleb Williams QB · CHI 3%
- Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN 3%
- Jayden Daniels QB · WAS 3%
Usually taken just after
- Christian Watson WR · GB 3%
- David Montgomery RB · HOU 3%
- Lamar Jackson QB · BAL 3%
- Caleb Williams QB · CHI 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Joe Burrow was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.