DET · Bye 6
Jared Goff
LMD QB10 for Week 4 · 16.3 projected Full PPR points
In season
Week 4 fantasy ranking
We project 16.3 points this week, QB10. Top 3: 10% · Top 12: 43% · Top 24: 80% of simulated weeks. Down 3 since Week 3.
Week 4
QB10
22nd by projected points
Projected
16.3
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
43%
Top 3: 10% · Top 24: 80% at QB
Movement
↓ 3
QB7 in Week 3, QB10 now
Should you start Jared Goff in Week 4?
Start
Yes in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Jared Goff QB10 for Week 4, inside the QB12 starter line. He finishes inside QB12 in 43% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.27 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Positive+0.72 pts
- AvailabilityStarting job share
- Negative-0.86 pts
- Outside projection
- Neutral+0.01 pts
- Betting markets
- Negative-1.50 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
NFC Notes: Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, Lions, Packers, Vikings
yardbarker.com ·
-
Panthers Week 4 X-Factor: Make Lions QB Jared Goff move
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Panthers defense looks to slow down Jared Goff and the Lions
toledoblade.com ·
-
Panthers defense looks to slow down Jared Goff and the Lions while missing both starting cornerbacks
themorningsun.com ·
-
NFC Notes: Justin Jefferson, Jared Goff, Lions, Packers, Vikings
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Jared Goff by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Jared Goff has averaged +6.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NO | 13.5 | 16.4 | +2.9 |
| Wk 2 | @ BUF | 14.6 | 29.8 | +15.2 |
| Wk 3 | vs NYJ | 17.1 | 19.4 | +2.3 |
| Wk 4 | @ CAR | 16.3 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB12. This week LMD has him 2 spots higher, at QB10.
Preseason market: QB12 · ADP 101.8
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 4
QB10 +2
LMD has him 2 spots higher than his QB12 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB12 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Jared Goff #34 in 1QB and #19 in Superflex, QB8 at his position. Age 31.
1QB
#34
QB8 · tier 12 · of 297
Superflex
#19
QB8 · tier 6 · of 303
- Last season 297.1 pts 17.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 33.6 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
12.02
pick 133.6 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
11.10
half of simulations take him by pick 130
Draft range
10.04 - 14.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 9,585 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 11.10 in 54% of simulations
Pick 130 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 10, the same seat picks again at 12.03, where he is available in 43% of simulations.
Slot 10's remaining turns: 11.10 54% · 12.03 43% · 13.10 20% · 14.03 18% · 15.10 6%
The middle half of simulations take him between 10.12 and 12.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 11.08 | 59% |
| 11.09 | 57% |
| 11.10 | 54% |
| 11.11 | 52% |
| 11.12 | 49% |
| 12.01 | 47% |
| 12.02 | 45% |
| 12.03 | 43% |
| 12.04 | 40% |
| 12.05 | 38% |
| 12.06 | 36% |
| 12.07 | 34% |
| 12.08 | 32% |
| 12.09 | 30% |
| 12.10 | 27% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 10.04-10.06 | 6% | 584 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.07-10.09 | 6% | 592 of 10000 simulations |
| 10.10-10.12 | 6% | 631 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.01-11.03 | 7% | 663 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.04-11.06 | 7% | 669 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.07-11.09 | 7% | 678 of 10000 simulations |
| 11.10-11.12 | 7% | 703 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.01-12.03 | 7% | 685 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.04-12.06 | 6% | 634 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.07-12.09 | 6% | 647 of 10000 simulations |
| 12.10-12.12 | 6% | 563 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.03 | <1% | 63 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.04-13.06 | <1% | 62 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.09 | <1% | 74 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.10-13.12 | <1% | 76 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.03 | 1% | 149 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04-14.06 | 1% | 142 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.09 | 2% | 163 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10-14.11 | 1% | 106 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 9585 simulations in which Jared Goff was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jordan Love QB · GB 2%
- KC Concepcion WR · CLE 2%
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
- Baker Mayfield QB · TB 2%
Usually taken just after
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 2%
- KC Concepcion WR · CLE 2%
- Jordan Love QB · GB 2%
- Romeo Doubs WR · NE 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Jared Goff was selected in 9585 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.