MIN · Bye 6
J.J. McCarthy
J.J. McCarthy comes off the board at 15.10 on average in 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty mock drafts, with a median of 15.11.
12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty · 10,000 simulations · generated September 17, 2026
Updates
Recent updates
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STATUS
J.J. McCarthy is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs GB | 5.0 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | @ CHI | 8.3 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | @ TB | 15.1 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has J.J. McCarthy #201 in 1QB and #172 in Superflex, QB36 at his position. Age 23.
1QB
#201
QB36 · tier 44 · of 297
Superflex
#172
QB36 · tier 33 · of 303
- Last season 125.4 pts 12.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 37% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Played in 1 of his 2 seasons in the window the model reads.
- Attempts 15.2 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.10
pick 178.1 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.11
half of simulations take him by pick 179
Draft range
15.09 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 479 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.11 in 98% of simulations
Pick 179 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.10 and 15.12.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.09 | >99% |
| 15.10 | >99% |
| 15.11 | 98% |
| 15.12 | 97% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | <1% | 2 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | <1% | 5 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | <1% | 6 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | <1% | 5 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | <1% | 10 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | <1% | 8 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 157 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 1% | 138 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 1% | 134 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 479 simulations in which J.J. McCarthy was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Shedeur Sanders QB · CLE 4%
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 3%
- Pat Bryant WR · DEN 3%
- Mike Evans WR · SF 3%
Usually taken just after
- Jordan Mason RB · MIN 3%
- Brashard Smith RB · KC 3%
- Ted Hurst III WR · TB 3%
- Mike Evans WR · SF 3%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Dynasty drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
J.J. McCarthy was selected in 479 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.