NE · Bye 11 · Rookie
Eli Raridon
LMD TE85 for Week 4 · 1.6 projected Half PPR points · TE74 rest of season
Questionable · projection includes a 71% chance of playing
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 1.6 points this week, TE85. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 2% · Top 24: 7% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable (Thigh). The projection and the Top 3, 12 and 24 odds include a 71% chance he plays; the weeks he sits count as zero. Down 13 since Week 3.
Week 4
TE85
378th by projected points
Rest of season
TE74
328th by projected points
Projected
1.6
week 4, Half PPR
Top 12
2%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 7% at TE
Movement
↓ 13
TE72 in Week 3, TE85 now
Should you start Eli Raridon in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Eli Raridon TE85 for Week 4, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 2% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.47 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.13 pts
- AvailabilityQuestionable
- Negative-0.67 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.13 pts
- Betting markets
- No mean changeNarrower range-0.00 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | — | — | 6.7 | — |
| Wk 2 | — | — | 3.5 | — |
| Wk 3 | @ JAX | 1.7 | Pending | — |
| Wk 4 | @ BUF | 1.6 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 33.8 points this season, TE74. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0% of simulated seasons. That is 2.3 a game over 13.707 remaining games. Listed questionable (Thigh). The projection and the Top 3, 12 and 24 odds include a 71% chance he plays; the weeks he sits count as zero.
Per game
2.3 / game
Over 13.707 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 0%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Eli Raridon #273 in 1QB and #282 in Superflex, TE47 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 22.
1QB
#273
TE47 · tier 66 · of 297 · rookie 51 of 52
Superflex
#282
TE47 · tier 58 · of 303 · rookie 52 of 52
- Draft capital Round 3, pick 95 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty TE rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
4.06
pick 42.5 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
4.08
half of simulations take him by pick 44
Draft range
3.11 - 4.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 3,925 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Eli Raridon.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 4.08 in 81% of simulations
Pick 44 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 4.03 and 4.11.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 4.06 | 86% |
| 4.07 | 84% |
| 4.08 | 81% |
| 4.09 | 79% |
| 4.10 | 75% |
| 4.11 | 72% |
| 4.12 | 67% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 3.11 | 1% | 108 of 10000 simulations |
| 3.12 | 1% | 109 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.01 | 1% | 131 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.02 | 1% | 144 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.03 | 2% | 161 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.04 | 1% | 149 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.05 | 2% | 199 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.06 | 2% | 220 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.07 | 3% | 265 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.08 | 3% | 274 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.09 | 3% | 335 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.10 | 4% | 378 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.11 | 5% | 494 of 10000 simulations |
| 4.12 | 6% | 591 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 3925 simulations in which Eli Raridon was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Sam Roush TE · CHI 5%
- Max Klare TE · LAR 5%
- Colbie Young WR · CIN 5%
- Kaden Wetjen WR · PIT 5%
Usually taken just after
- Oscar Delp TE · NO 5%
- Max Klare TE · LAR 4%
- Bryce Lance WR · NO 4%
- Colbie Young WR · CIN 4%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB Rookie drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Eli Raridon was selected in 3925 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.