NYG · Bye 8
Theo Johnson
LMD TE38 for Week 3 · 4.5 projected Full PPR points · TE34 rest of season
Regular season
Week 3 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 4.5 points this week, TE38. Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 9% · Top 24: 22% of simulated weeks.
Week 3
TE38
204th by projected points
Rest of season
TE34
215th by projected points
Projected
4.5
week 3, Full PPR
Top 12
9%
Top 3: 1% · Top 24: 22% at TE
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at TE in Week 2
- Draft / market prior
- Slight positive+0.28 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.15 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.39 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Theo Johnson is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Theo Johnson has averaged -0.9 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DAL | 2.8 | 1.9 | -0.9 |
| Wk 2 | — | — | 0.0 | — |
| Wk 3 | vs TEN | 4.5 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 74.1 points this season, TE34. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 10% of simulated seasons. That is 4.5 a game over 15 remaining games.
Per game
4.5 / game
Over 15 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 10%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
none
No market signal available.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.3.0. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections). · 2026 Rest of season board updated September 22, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Theo Johnson #157 in 1QB and #157 in Superflex, TE19 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#157
TE19 · tier 35 · of 297
Superflex
#157
TE19 · tier 29 · of 303
- Last season 105.3 pts 7.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 79% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 15% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.02
pick 170.0 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.04
half of simulations take him by pick 172
Draft range
14.02 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 3,034 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Theo Johnson.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.04 in 85% of simulations
Pick 172 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.10 and 15.08.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.02 | 88% |
| 15.03 | 87% |
| 15.04 | 85% |
| 15.05 | 83% |
| 15.06 | 82% |
| 15.07 | 80% |
| 15.08 | 78% |
| 15.09 | 77% |
| 15.10 | 75% |
| 15.11 | 73% |
| 15.12 | 71% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.02 | <1% | 56 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03 | <1% | 64 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.04 | <1% | 47 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05 | <1% | 48 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | <1% | 66 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | <1% | 59 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | <1% | 78 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | <1% | 78 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | <1% | 80 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | <1% | 76 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | 1% | 102 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 2% | 163 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 2% | 167 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 177 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 161 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 153 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 174 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 178 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 163 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 184 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 167 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 185 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 3034 simulations in which Theo Johnson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jake Bates K · DET 4%
- Chris Boswell K · PIT 3%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 3%
- Tyler Loop K · BAL 3%
Usually taken just after
- Andy Borregales K · NE 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Detroit Lions DST · DET 2%
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Theo Johnson was selected in 3034 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.