NYG · Bye 8
Theo Johnson
LMD TE Tier 8 for Week 10 · 2.7 projected Half PPR points · TE48 rest of season
Regular season
Week 10 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 2.7 points this week, TE Tier 8. The middle 80% of simulated scores runs 0.7 - 7.3 points. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 6% · Top 24: 15% of simulated weeks.
Week 10
TE Tier 8
2.5 - 3.1 projected points
Rest of season
TE48
244th by projected points
Projected
2.7
week 10, Half PPR
Top 12
6%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 15% at TE
Movement
↓ 1
TE47 in Week 9, TE48 now
Should you start Theo Johnson in Week 10?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Theo Johnson TE48 for Week 10, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 6% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
LMD vs the draft market
TE48 vs TE57 +9
LMD has him TE48. The fantasy draft market has him TE57, 9 places lower.
Our projection is higher than the outside forecast.
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.05 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- No mean changeNarrower range+0.10 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Negative-0.73 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.24 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated November 12, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
STATUS
Theo Johnson is no longer listed on the injury report.
Let's Mock Draft ·
-
Giants' Theo Johnson, Tyrone Tracy Jr. making an impact on special teams
Yahoo Sports ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Theo Johnson by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did. Status changes are the club designation carried on our player data, not a report of our own.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Theo Johnson has averaged +2.1 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs DAL | 2.2 | 1.4 | -0.8 |
| Wk 2 | — | — | 0.0 | — |
| Wk 3 | vs TEN | 3.0 | Pending | — |
| Wk 4 | vs ARI | 2.8 | 7.6 | +4.8 |
| Wk 5 | @ WAS | 2.3 | 4.5 | +2.2 |
| Wk 6 | vs NO | 2.9 | Pending | — |
| Wk 7 | @ HOU | 3.0 | Pending | — |
| Wk 9 | @ PHI | 2.7 | Pending | — |
| Wk 10 | vs WAS | 2.7 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 30.2 points this season, TE48. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 5% of simulated seasons. That is 2.6 a game over 9 remaining games. Up 7 since the Nov. 8 board.
Per game
2.6 / game
Over 9 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 5%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.2. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated November 12, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Theo Johnson #157 in 1QB and #157 in Superflex, TE19 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#157
TE19 · tier 35 · of 300
Superflex
#157
TE19 · tier 29 · of 307
- Last season 105.3 pts 7.0 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 79% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 4.5 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 15% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated October 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.03
pick 171.3 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.05
half of simulations take him by pick 173
Draft range
14.04 - 15.11
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 2,759 of them
Filters
League format
Nothing is published for every setting in that link, so this is the closest configuration we have simulated for Theo Johnson.
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.05 in 87% of simulations
Pick 173 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.12 and 15.09.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.03 | 90% |
| 15.04 | 89% |
| 15.05 | 87% |
| 15.06 | 85% |
| 15.07 | 84% |
| 15.08 | 82% |
| 15.09 | 80% |
| 15.10 | 78% |
| 15.11 | 76% |
| 15.12 | 74% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.04 | <1% | 45 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05 | <1% | 21 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.06 | <1% | 49 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07 | <1% | 45 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.08 | <1% | 39 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09 | <1% | 58 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | <1% | 44 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | <1% | 64 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | <1% | 67 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 1% | 135 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 1% | 131 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 165 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 166 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 173 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 164 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 173 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 179 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 201 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 189 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 182 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 2759 simulations in which Theo Johnson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Will Reichard K · MIN 3%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
- Jake Bates K · DET 3%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
Usually taken just after
- Harrison Butker K · KC 3%
- Will Reichard K · MIN 2%
- Omar Cooper Jr. WR · NYJ 2%
- De'Zhaun Stribling WR · SF 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Theo Johnson was selected in 2759 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- November 12, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@9ec076346de89e76
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.