NFL · 2026 Week 5
2026 Week 5 Standard TE Rankings
Final pre-kickoff board · published October 8, 2026, 18:09 UTC · first kickoff October 9, 2026, 00:15 UTC
Standard, 1QB · 101 players projected · updated October 8, 2026
How these rankings work
How these rankings are built
We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.
We then update those expectations for Week 5 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.
We then simulate the week 4,000 times and rank players by the projected fantasy points those simulations produce.
This board is priced in Standard. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.
What the percentages mean
For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.
- Top 3
- how often he finishes among the top three at his position
- Top 12
- how often he finishes in the top 12
- Top 24
- how often he finishes in the top 24
A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.
How often a strong start lasts
Since 1999, 63% of TEs inside the top 12 through Week 4 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 329 TE-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.
What stood out in Week 5
101 TEs ranked for Week 5. Trey McBride leads at 10.4 projected points.
Tier break
2.0 projected points separate TE2 Brock Bowers from TE3 Sam LaPorta.
Biggest differences from the draft market
Ahead
- Noah FantTE33Our projection is higher than the outside forecastTop 3: 2% · Top 12: 13% · Top 24: 23% +15 vs. TE48
- Elijah HigginsTE40Our projection is higher than the outside forecast +14 vs. TE54
- Jonnu SmithTE44Our projection is higher than the outside forecast +13 vs. TE57
Behind
- Jake FergusonTE23Sportsbooks pricing him below our baselineTop 3: 5% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 42% -8 vs. TE15
- Dallas GoedertTE18Recent usage below his season baselineTop 3: 8% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 45% -4 vs. TE14
- Mark AndrewsTE20Sportsbooks pricing him below our baselineTop 3: 6% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 46% -4 vs. TE16
Movement
Risers
- T.J. HockensonTE7Top 3: 12% · Top 12: 35% · Top 24: 66% ↑ 11
- Sam LaPortaTE3Top 3: 15% · Top 12: 41% · Top 24: 73% ↑ 4
- Harold Fannin Jr.TE8Top 3: 10% · Top 12: 34% · Top 24: 61% ↑ 4
Fallers
- Mark AndrewsTE20Top 3: 6% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 46% ↓ 10
- Dalton SchultzTE17Top 3: 7% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 54% ↓ 8
- Dalton KincaidTE11Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 31% · Top 24: 65% ↓ 6
Positional movement since the final Week 4 board, among players inside TE12 either week. Players not ranked at their position then are excluded.
| # | Pos | Player | Pos rank | Proj | Outcome profile | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TE | Trey McBrideARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 27% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE9 at the median, TE3 - TE20 in the middle half, and TE1 - TE26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 27%Top 12: 56%Top 24: 88% |
TE1— | 10.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 27% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE9 at the median, TE3 - TE20 in the middle half, and TE1 - TE26 in the middle 80%. | |
| 2 | TE | Brock BowersLVQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 24% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 24%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE13 at the median, TE4 - TE24 in the middle half, and TE1 - TE34 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 24%Top 12: 49%Top 24: 76% |
TE2— | 9.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 24% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 24%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE13 at the median, TE4 - TE24 in the middle half, and TE1 - TE34 in the middle 80%. | |
| 3 | TE | Sam LaPortaDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 27%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE17 at the median, TE6 - TE25 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE34 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 15%Top 12: 41%Top 24: 73% |
TE3↑ 4 | 7.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 27%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE17 at the median, TE6 - TE25 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE34 in the middle 80%. | |
| 4 | TE | George KittleSFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE18 at the median, TE6 - TE27 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE37 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 15%Top 12: 39%Top 24: 69% |
TE4↓ 1 | 7.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE18 at the median, TE6 - TE27 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE37 in the middle 80%. | |
| 5 | TE | Tyler WarrenIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 34%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE19 at the median, TE7 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE37 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 34%Top 24: 66% |
TE5↓ 1 | 6.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 32%, and outside the top 24 34%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE19 at the median, TE7 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE37 in the middle 80%. | |
| 6 | TE | Isaiah LikelyNYGQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 37%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE8 - TE30 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE42 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 35%Top 24: 63% |
TE6↑ 2 | 6.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 37%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE8 - TE30 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE42 in the middle 80%. | |
| 7 | TE | T.J. HockensonMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 31%, and outside the top 24 34%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE19 at the median, TE8 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE38 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 35%Top 24: 66% |
TE7↑ 11 | 6.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 31%, and outside the top 24 34%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE19 at the median, TE8 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE38 in the middle 80%. | |
| 8 | TE | Harold Fannin Jr.CLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 39%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE8 - TE30 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE40 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 34%Top 24: 61% |
TE8↑ 4 | 6.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 39%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE8 - TE30 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE40 in the middle 80%. | |
| 9 | TE | Tucker KraftGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 33%, and outside the top 24 35%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE9 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE37 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 32%Top 24: 65% |
TE9↑ 4 | 6.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 33%, and outside the top 24 35%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE9 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE37 in the middle 80%. | |
| 10 | TE | Juwan JohnsonNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE22 at the median, TE9 - TE32 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE45 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 32%Top 24: 58% |
TE10↑ 1 | 6.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE22 at the median, TE9 - TE32 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE45 in the middle 80%. | |
| 11 | TE | Dalton KincaidBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 33%, and outside the top 24 35%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE9 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE37 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 31%Top 24: 65% |
TE11↓ 6 | 6.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 33%, and outside the top 24 35%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE9 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE37 in the middle 80%. | |
| 12 | TE | Colston LovelandCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE10 - TE33 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE43 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 29%Top 24: 55% |
TE12↑ 4 | 5.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE10 - TE33 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE43 in the middle 80%. | |
| 13 | TE | Mike GesickiCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE11 - TE36 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE48 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 51% |
TE13↑ 9 | 5.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE11 - TE36 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE48 in the middle 80%. | |
| 14 | TE | Kenyon SadiqNYJQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 50%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE11 - TE36 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE49 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 50% |
TE14— | 5.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 50%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE11 - TE36 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE49 in the middle 80%. | |
| 15 | TE | Brenton StrangeJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE12 - TE33 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE43 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 53% |
TE15↑ 4 | 5.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE12 - TE33 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE43 in the middle 80%. | |
| 16 | TE | Hunter HenryNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE11 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE45 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 51% |
TE16↑ 4 | 5.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE11 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE45 in the middle 80%. | |
| 17 | TE | Dalton SchultzHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 46%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE13 - TE32 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE43 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 54% |
TE17↓ 8 | 5.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 46%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE13 - TE32 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE43 in the middle 80%. | |
| 18 | TE | Dallas GoedertPHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE13 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE58 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 45% |
TE18NEW | 5.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE13 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE58 in the middle 80%. | |
| 19 | TE | Tyler HigbeeLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE13 - TE38 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE51 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 45% |
TE19↑ 8 | 5.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE13 - TE38 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE51 in the middle 80%. | |
| 20 | TE | Mark AndrewsBALQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE13 - TE39 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 46% |
TE20↓ 10 | 5.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE13 - TE39 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE52 in the middle 80%. | |
| 21 | TE | Pat FreiermuthPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE13 - TE37 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE49 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 46% |
TE21— | 4.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE13 - TE37 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE49 in the middle 80%. | |
| 22 | TE | Michael MayerLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE25 at the median, TE14 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE46 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 49% |
TE22↑ 7 | 4.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE25 at the median, TE14 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE46 in the middle 80%. | |
| 23 | TE | Jake FergusonDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE13 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE54 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 42% |
TE23— | 4.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE13 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE54 in the middle 80%. | |
| 24 | TE | Oronde Gadsden IILAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE13 - TE40 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 42% |
TE24↑ 6 | 4.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE13 - TE40 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE52 in the middle 80%. | |
| 25 | TE | AJ BarnerSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE16 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 40% |
TE25↓ 10 | 4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE16 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE52 in the middle 80%. | |
| 26 | TE | Cade OttonTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE18 - TE38 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE49 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 43% |
TE26↓ 2 | 4.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE18 - TE38 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE49 in the middle 80%. | |
| 27 | TE | Darnell WashingtonPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 66%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE32 at the median, TE19 - TE44 in the middle half, and TE8 - TE57 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 34% |
TE27↑ 4 | 3.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 66%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE32 at the median, TE19 - TE44 in the middle half, and TE8 - TE57 in the middle 80%. | |
| 28 | TE | Kyle PittsATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE31 at the median, TE19 - TE42 in the middle half, and TE8 - TE55 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 18%Top 24: 35% |
TE28↓ 2 | 3.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE31 at the median, TE19 - TE42 in the middle half, and TE8 - TE55 in the middle 80%. | |
| 29 | TE | Kylen GransonTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 67%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE34 at the median, TE19 - TE50 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 18%Top 24: 33% |
TE29NEW | 3.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 67%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE34 at the median, TE19 - TE50 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE68 in the middle 80%. | |
| 30 | TE | Greg DulcichMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 66%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE31 at the median, TE20 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE56 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 15%Top 24: 34% |
TE30↓ 2 | 3.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 66%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE31 at the median, TE20 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE56 in the middle 80%. | |
| 31 | TE | Chig OkonkwoWASQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE38 at the median, TE23 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE74 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 27% |
TE31↑ 5 | 3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE38 at the median, TE23 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE74 in the middle 80%. | |
| 32 | TE | Gunnar HelmTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE38 at the median, TE26 - TE51 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE66 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 23% |
TE32— | 3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE38 at the median, TE26 - TE51 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE66 in the middle 80%. | |
| 33 | TE | Noah FantNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE43 at the median, TE26 - TE61 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE79 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 23% |
TE33— | 3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE43 at the median, TE26 - TE61 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE79 in the middle 80%. | |
| 34 | TE | Evan EngramDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE39 at the median, TE26 - TE53 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE67 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 23% |
TE34↑ 5 | 2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE39 at the median, TE26 - TE53 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE67 in the middle 80%. | |
| 35 | TE | Dawson KnoxBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE46 at the median, TE30 - TE62 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE77 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 20% |
TE35↓ 1 | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE46 at the median, TE30 - TE62 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE77 in the middle 80%. | |
| 36 | TE | Colby ParkinsonLARQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE52 at the median, TE33 - TE71 in the middle half, and TE13 - TE89 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 19% |
TE36↑ 5 | 2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE52 at the median, TE33 - TE71 in the middle half, and TE13 - TE89 in the middle 80%. | |
| 37 | TE | Jeremy RuckertNYJQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE50 at the median, TE33 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE14 - TE87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 16% |
TE37↑ 1 | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE50 at the median, TE33 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE14 - TE87 in the middle 80%. | |
| 38 | TE | Tanner ArkinNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE51 at the median, TE33 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE14 - TE87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 16% |
TE38↑ 10 | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE51 at the median, TE33 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE14 - TE87 in the middle 80%. | |
| 39 | TE | Cole KmetCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE49 at the median, TE34 - TE65 in the middle half, and TE14 - TE79 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 16% |
TE39↑ 16 | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE49 at the median, TE34 - TE65 in the middle half, and TE14 - TE79 in the middle 80%. | |
| 40 | TE | Elijah HigginsARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE52 at the median, TE35 - TE68 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE84 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 15% |
TE40↑ 23 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE52 at the median, TE35 - TE68 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE84 in the middle 80%. | |
| 41 | TE | Drake DabneyGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE54 at the median, TE35 - TE75 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 16% |
TE41↓ 1 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE54 at the median, TE35 - TE75 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE92 in the middle 80%. | |
| 42 | TE | Austin HooperATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE52 at the median, TE36 - TE69 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE84 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 15% |
TE42↑ 7 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE52 at the median, TE36 - TE69 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE84 in the middle 80%. | |
| 43 | TE | Mason TaylorNYJQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE34 - TE73 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 16% |
TE43NEW | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE34 - TE73 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE91 in the middle 80%. | |
| 44 | TE | Jonnu SmithGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE50 at the median, TE35 - TE66 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE81 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 14% |
TE44↑ 7 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE50 at the median, TE35 - TE66 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE81 in the middle 80%. | |
| 45 | TE | Brevin JordanHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE55 at the median, TE38 - TE74 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 13% |
TE45NEW | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE55 at the median, TE38 - TE74 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE90 in the middle 80%. | |
| 46 | TE | Teagan QuitorianoARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE57 at the median, TE38 - TE76 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 14% |
TE46NEW | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE57 at the median, TE38 - TE76 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE92 in the middle 80%. | |
| 47 | TE | Nate AdkinsDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE58 at the median, TE39 - TE75 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE89 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 14% |
TE47↓ 3 | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE58 at the median, TE39 - TE75 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE89 in the middle 80%. | |
| 48 | TE | CJ DippreTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE59 at the median, TE39 - TE78 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 13% |
TE48NEW | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE59 at the median, TE39 - TE78 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE95 in the middle 80%. | |
| 49 | TE | Eli RaridonNEQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE62 at the median, TE43 - TE82 in the middle half, and TE19 - TE96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 12% |
TE49↑ 22 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE62 at the median, TE43 - TE82 in the middle half, and TE19 - TE96 in the middle 80%. | |
| 50 | TE | Theo JohnsonNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE58 at the median, TE41 - TE75 in the middle half, and TE19 - TE90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 12% |
TE50↓ 7 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE58 at the median, TE41 - TE75 in the middle half, and TE19 - TE90 in the middle 80%. | |
| 51 | TE | Davis AllenLARQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE61 at the median, TE42 - TE79 in the middle half, and TE19 - TE94 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 12% |
TE51↓ 1 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE61 at the median, TE42 - TE79 in the middle half, and TE19 - TE94 in the middle 80%. | |
| 52 | TE | Drew SampleCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE58 at the median, TE41 - TE76 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 12% |
TE52↑ 7 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE58 at the median, TE41 - TE76 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE91 in the middle 80%. | |
| 53 | TE | Michael TriggDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE62 at the median, TE42 - TE83 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 12% |
TE53↑ 1 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE62 at the median, TE42 - TE83 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE99 in the middle 80%. | |
| 54 | TE | Foster MoreauHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE62 at the median, TE44 - TE78 in the middle half, and TE20 - TE90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 11% |
TE54↓ 12 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE62 at the median, TE44 - TE78 in the middle half, and TE20 - TE90 in the middle 80%. | |
| 55 | TE | Mark RedmanGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE59 at the median, TE41 - TE78 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 11% |
TE55↑ 9 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE59 at the median, TE41 - TE78 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE93 in the middle 80%. | |
| 56 | TE | Nate BoerkircherJAXQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE64 at the median, TE44 - TE82 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 11% |
TE56↑ 12 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE64 at the median, TE44 - TE82 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE97 in the middle 80%. | |
| 57 | TE | Brock WrightDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE62 at the median, TE45 - TE77 in the middle half, and TE20 - TE90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 11% |
TE57↑ 19 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE62 at the median, TE45 - TE77 in the middle half, and TE20 - TE90 in the middle 80%. | |
| 58 | TE | Elijah ArroyoSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE65 at the median, TE45 - TE83 in the middle half, and TE23 - TE96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 11% |
TE58↑ 11 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE65 at the median, TE45 - TE83 in the middle half, and TE23 - TE96 in the middle 80%. | |
| 59 | TE | Chris MyarickLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE66 at the median, TE45 - TE86 in the middle half, and TE23 - TE100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 10% |
TE59↑ 3 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE66 at the median, TE45 - TE86 in the middle half, and TE23 - TE100 in the middle 80%. | |
| 60 | TE | Tanner KoziolJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE68 at the median, TE47 - TE88 in the middle half, and TE26 - TE100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 10% |
TE60↓ 15 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE68 at the median, TE47 - TE88 in the middle half, and TE26 - TE100 in the middle 80%. | |
| 61 | TE | Erick AllCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE68 at the median, TE48 - TE86 in the middle half, and TE27 - TE99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 9% |
TE61— | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE68 at the median, TE48 - TE86 in the middle half, and TE27 - TE99 in the middle 80%. | |
| 62 | TE | Adam TrautmanDENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE68 at the median, TE47 - TE87 in the middle half, and TE25 - TE101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 10% |
TE62↓ 5 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE68 at the median, TE47 - TE87 in the middle half, and TE25 - TE101 in the middle 80%. | |
| 63 | TE | Tyler ConklinDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE67 at the median, TE46 - TE86 in the middle half, and TE25 - TE99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 10% |
TE63↑ 2 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE67 at the median, TE46 - TE86 in the middle half, and TE25 - TE99 in the middle 80%. | |
| 64 | TE | Sam RoushCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE66 at the median, TE48 - TE83 in the middle half, and TE27 - TE95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 9% |
TE64↑ 2 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE66 at the median, TE48 - TE83 in the middle half, and TE27 - TE95 in the middle 80%. | |
| 65 | TE | Cam GrandyMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE71 at the median, TE49 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE27 - TE103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 9% |
TE65NEW | 1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE71 at the median, TE49 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE27 - TE103 in the middle 80%. | |
| 66 | TE | Tanner HudsonCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE67 at the median, TE50 - TE84 in the middle half, and TE32 - TE97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% |
TE66↑ 16 | 1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE67 at the median, TE50 - TE84 in the middle half, and TE32 - TE97 in the middle 80%. | |
| 67 | TE | Seydou TraoreMIAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE71 at the median, TE49 - TE93 in the middle half, and TE27 - TE105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 9% |
TE67NEW | 1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE71 at the median, TE49 - TE93 in the middle half, and TE27 - TE105 in the middle 80%. | |
| 68 | TE | Luke SchoonmakerDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE68 at the median, TE49 - TE85 in the middle half, and TE28 - TE98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% |
TE68↑ 15 | 1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE68 at the median, TE49 - TE85 in the middle half, and TE28 - TE98 in the middle 80%. | |
| 69 | TE | Patrick HerbertLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE69 at the median, TE48 - TE88 in the middle half, and TE27 - TE101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 9% |
TE69↓ 23 | 1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE69 at the median, TE48 - TE88 in the middle half, and TE27 - TE101 in the middle 80%. | |
| 70 | TE | Daniel BellingerTENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE68 at the median, TE50 - TE86 in the middle half, and TE30 - TE99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% |
TE70↑ 5 | 1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE68 at the median, TE50 - TE86 in the middle half, and TE30 - TE99 in the middle 80%. | |
| 71 | TE | Hayden RucciJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE74 at the median, TE53 - TE91 in the middle half, and TE31 - TE103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% |
TE71NEW | 1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE74 at the median, TE53 - TE91 in the middle half, and TE31 - TE103 in the middle 80%. | |
| 72 | TE | Zaire Mitchell-PadenHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE76 at the median, TE52 - TE94 in the middle half, and TE30 - TE105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% |
TE72NEW | 1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE76 at the median, TE52 - TE94 in the middle half, and TE30 - TE105 in the middle 80%. | |
| 73 | TE | John BatesWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE73 at the median, TE53 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE34 - TE101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% |
TE73↑ 4 | 1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE73 at the median, TE53 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE34 - TE101 in the middle 80%. | |
| 74 | TE | Pharaoh BrownIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE77 at the median, TE55 - TE95 in the middle half, and TE32 - TE106 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% |
TE74NEW | 1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE77 at the median, TE55 - TE95 in the middle half, and TE32 - TE106 in the middle 80%. | |
| 75 | TE | Ian ThomasLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE71 at the median, TE53 - TE89 in the middle half, and TE33 - TE100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% |
TE75NEW | 1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE71 at the median, TE53 - TE89 in the middle half, and TE33 - TE100 in the middle 80%. | |
| 76 | TE | Jackson HawesBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE72 at the median, TE53 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE32 - TE102 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% |
TE76↑ 4 | 1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE72 at the median, TE53 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE32 - TE102 in the middle 80%. | |
| 77 | TE | Oscar DelpNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE75 at the median, TE54 - TE93 in the middle half, and TE32 - TE105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 8% |
TE77↓ 7 | 1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE75 at the median, TE54 - TE93 in the middle half, and TE32 - TE105 in the middle 80%. | |
| 78 | TE | Will KacmarekMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE72 at the median, TE55 - TE87 in the middle half, and TE38 - TE98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% |
TE78NEW | 1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE72 at the median, TE55 - TE87 in the middle half, and TE38 - TE98 in the middle 80%. | |
| 79 | TE | Charlie KolarLACQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE78 at the median, TE55 - TE96 in the middle half, and TE34 - TE107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 7% |
TE79NEW | 1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE78 at the median, TE55 - TE96 in the middle half, and TE34 - TE107 in the middle 80%. | |
| 80 | TE | Johnny MundtPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE74 at the median, TE56 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE37 - TE100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 7% |
TE80↓ 20 | 1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE74 at the median, TE56 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE37 - TE100 in the middle 80%. | |
| 81 | TE | Gavin BartholomewMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE75 at the median, TE55 - TE92 in the middle half, and TE36 - TE104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 7% |
TE81↓ 8 | 1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE75 at the median, TE55 - TE92 in the middle half, and TE36 - TE104 in the middle 80%. | |
| 82 | TE | Blake WhiteheartCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE74 at the median, TE56 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE38 - TE101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 7% |
TE82↓ 4 | 1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE74 at the median, TE56 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE38 - TE101 in the middle 80%. | |
| 83 | TE | Brevyn Spann-FordDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE80 at the median, TE62 - TE93 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE102 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 8% |
TE83↓ 4 | 1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE80 at the median, TE62 - TE93 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE102 in the middle 80%. | |
| 84 | TE | Luke FarrellSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE72 at the median, TE56 - TE88 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% |
TE84↓ 3 | 1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE72 at the median, TE56 - TE88 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE98 in the middle 80%. | |
| 85 | TE | Ko KieftTBQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE78 at the median, TE57 - TE96 in the middle half, and TE35 - TE106 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 7% |
TE85NEW | 1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE78 at the median, TE57 - TE96 in the middle half, and TE35 - TE106 in the middle 80%. | |
| 86 | TE | Marlin KleinHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE79 at the median, TE59 - TE96 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% |
TE86NEW | 1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE79 at the median, TE59 - TE96 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE107 in the middle 80%. | |
| 87 | TE | Jack WestoverWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE82 at the median, TE61 - TE98 in the middle half, and TE37 - TE108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 7% |
TE87NEW | 1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE82 at the median, TE61 - TE98 in the middle half, and TE37 - TE108 in the middle 80%. | |
| 88 | TE | Thomas Fidone IINYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE81 at the median, TE59 - TE97 in the middle half, and TE38 - TE107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% |
TE88NEW | 1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE81 at the median, TE59 - TE97 in the middle half, and TE38 - TE107 in the middle 80%. | |
| 89 | TE | Payne DurhamTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE80 at the median, TE60 - TE96 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE106 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 7% |
TE89↑ 2 | 1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE80 at the median, TE60 - TE96 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE106 in the middle 80%. | |
| 90 | TE | Josiah DeguaraPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE82 at the median, TE60 - TE99 in the middle half, and TE38 - TE108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% |
TE90↓ 34 | 1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE82 at the median, TE60 - TE99 in the middle half, and TE38 - TE108 in the middle 80%. | |
| 91 | TE | Josh WhyleGBQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE85 at the median, TE62 - TE101 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% |
TE91↓ 39 | 1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE85 at the median, TE62 - TE101 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE109 in the middle 80%. | |
| 92 | TE | Max KlareLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE86 at the median, TE65 - TE101 in the middle half, and TE45 - TE108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 5% |
TE92↓ 67 | 1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE86 at the median, TE65 - TE101 in the middle half, and TE45 - TE108 in the middle 80%. | |
| 93 | TE | Lucas KrullDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE87 at the median, TE65 - TE102 in the middle half, and TE42 - TE109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% |
TE93NEW | 1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE87 at the median, TE65 - TE102 in the middle half, and TE42 - TE109 in the middle 80%. | |
| 94 | TE | Stone SmarttNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE84 at the median, TE62 - TE100 in the middle half, and TE41 - TE108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% |
TE94↓ 57 | 1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE84 at the median, TE62 - TE100 in the middle half, and TE41 - TE108 in the middle 80%. | |
| 95 | TE | Albert OkwuegbunamLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE82 at the median, TE61 - TE99 in the middle half, and TE40 - TE108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% |
TE95↓ 9 | 1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE82 at the median, TE61 - TE99 in the middle half, and TE40 - TE108 in the middle 80%. | |
| 96 | TE | Treyton WelchNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE83 at the median, TE65 - TE99 in the middle half, and TE45 - TE107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% |
TE96NEW | 1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE83 at the median, TE65 - TE99 in the middle half, and TE45 - TE107 in the middle 80%. | |
| 97 | TE | Colson YankoffWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE82 at the median, TE66 - TE96 in the middle half, and TE47 - TE104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% |
TE97NEW | 1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE82 at the median, TE66 - TE96 in the middle half, and TE47 - TE104 in the middle 80%. | |
| 98 | TE | Cade StoverHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE87 at the median, TE69 - TE100 in the middle half, and TE49 - TE108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
TE98NEW | 0.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE87 at the median, TE69 - TE100 in the middle half, and TE49 - TE108 in the middle 80%. | |
| 99 | TE | Justin JolyMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE91 at the median, TE72 - TE103 in the middle half, and TE48 - TE110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 5% |
TE99NEW | 0.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE91 at the median, TE72 - TE103 in the middle half, and TE48 - TE110 in the middle 80%. | |
| 100 | TE | Ben SinnottWASQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE90 at the median, TE71 - TE104 in the middle half, and TE49 - TE110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
TE100NEW | 0.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE90 at the median, TE71 - TE104 in the middle half, and TE49 - TE110 in the middle 80%. | |
| 101 | TE | Nick KallerupSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE89 at the median, TE70 - TE103 in the middle half, and TE49 - TE110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
TE101NEW | 0.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE89 at the median, TE70 - TE103 in the middle half, and TE49 - TE110 in the middle 80%. |
Simulated finishes
This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.
Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.
Week 5 TE outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.
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TE1 Trey McBrideTE9Trey McBride is ranked TE1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE9 at the median, TE3 - TE20 in the middle half, and TE1 - TE26 in the middle 80%.
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TE2 Brock BowersTE13Brock Bowers is ranked TE2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE13 at the median, TE4 - TE24 in the middle half, and TE1 - TE34 in the middle 80%.
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TE3 Sam LaPortaTE17Sam LaPorta is ranked TE3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE17 at the median, TE6 - TE25 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE34 in the middle 80%.
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TE4 George KittleTE18George Kittle is ranked TE4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE18 at the median, TE6 - TE27 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE37 in the middle 80%.
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TE5 Tyler WarrenTE19Tyler Warren is ranked TE5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE19 at the median, TE7 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE37 in the middle 80%.
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TE6 Isaiah LikelyTE20Isaiah Likely is ranked TE6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE8 - TE30 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE42 in the middle 80%.
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TE7 T.J. HockensonTE19T.J. Hockenson is ranked TE7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE19 at the median, TE8 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE38 in the middle 80%.
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TE20Harold Fannin Jr. is ranked TE8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE8 - TE30 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE40 in the middle 80%.
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TE9 Tucker KraftTE20Tucker Kraft is ranked TE9 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE9 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE37 in the middle 80%.
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TE10 Juwan JohnsonTE22Juwan Johnson is ranked TE10 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE22 at the median, TE9 - TE32 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE45 in the middle 80%.
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TE11 Dalton KincaidTE20Dalton Kincaid is ranked TE11 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE9 - TE28 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE37 in the middle 80%.
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TE12 Colston LovelandTE23Colston Loveland is ranked TE12 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE10 - TE33 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE43 in the middle 80%.
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TE13 Mike GesickiTE24Mike Gesicki is ranked TE13 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE11 - TE36 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE48 in the middle 80%.
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TE14 Kenyon SadiqTE24Kenyon Sadiq is ranked TE14 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE11 - TE36 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE49 in the middle 80%.
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TE15 Brenton StrangeTE24Brenton Strange is ranked TE15 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE12 - TE33 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE43 in the middle 80%.
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TE16 Hunter HenryTE24Hunter Henry is ranked TE16 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE11 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE45 in the middle 80%.
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TE17 Dalton SchultzTE23Dalton Schultz is ranked TE17 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE13 - TE32 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE43 in the middle 80%.
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TE18 Dallas GoedertTE27Dallas Goedert is ranked TE18 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE13 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE58 in the middle 80%.
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TE19 Tyler HigbeeTE27Tyler Higbee is ranked TE19 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE13 - TE38 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE51 in the middle 80%.
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TE20 Mark AndrewsTE27Mark Andrews is ranked TE20 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE13 - TE39 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE52 in the middle 80%.
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TE21 Pat FreiermuthTE26Pat Freiermuth is ranked TE21 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE13 - TE37 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE49 in the middle 80%.
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TE22 Michael MayerTE25Michael Mayer is ranked TE22 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE25 at the median, TE14 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE46 in the middle 80%.
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TE23 Jake FergusonTE28Jake Ferguson is ranked TE23 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE13 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE54 in the middle 80%.
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TE24 Oronde Gadsden IITE28Oronde Gadsden II is ranked TE24 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE13 - TE40 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE52 in the middle 80%.
Show TE25 - TE36
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TE25 AJ BarnerTE29AJ Barner is ranked TE25 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE16 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE52 in the middle 80%.
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TE26 Cade OttonTE27Cade Otton is ranked TE26 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE18 - TE38 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE49 in the middle 80%.
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TE27 Darnell WashingtonTE32Darnell Washington is ranked TE27 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE32 at the median, TE19 - TE44 in the middle half, and TE8 - TE57 in the middle 80%.
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TE28 Kyle PittsTE31Kyle Pitts is ranked TE28 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE31 at the median, TE19 - TE42 in the middle half, and TE8 - TE55 in the middle 80%.
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TE29 Kylen GransonTE34Kylen Granson is ranked TE29 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE34 at the median, TE19 - TE50 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE68 in the middle 80%.
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TE30 Greg DulcichTE31Greg Dulcich is ranked TE30 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE31 at the median, TE20 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE56 in the middle 80%.
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TE31 Chig OkonkwoTE38Chig Okonkwo is ranked TE31 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE38 at the median, TE23 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE74 in the middle 80%.
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TE32 Gunnar HelmTE38Gunnar Helm is ranked TE32 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE38 at the median, TE26 - TE51 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE66 in the middle 80%.
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TE33 Noah FantTE43Noah Fant is ranked TE33 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE43 at the median, TE26 - TE61 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE79 in the middle 80%.
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TE34 Evan EngramTE39Evan Engram is ranked TE34 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE39 at the median, TE26 - TE53 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE67 in the middle 80%.
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TE35 Dawson KnoxTE46Dawson Knox is ranked TE35 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE46 at the median, TE30 - TE62 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE77 in the middle 80%.
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TE36 Colby ParkinsonTE52Colby Parkinson is ranked TE36 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE52 at the median, TE33 - TE71 in the middle half, and TE13 - TE89 in the middle 80%.
Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.
The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.
How these are made
This board was built from 2026 usage for 74% of the board, draft position for 100%, an outside projection for 58%, sportsbook props for 68%, an official status for 82%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Standard, 1QB.
Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured October 8, 2026 18:07 UTC. Movement is previous - current; positive means the player moved up the board (a smaller rank number), measured in positional rank against the final Week 4 board generated before that week's first kickoff (October 1, 2026). Model rankings-v1.4.2, board captured 2026-10-08.
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
