NFL · 2026 Week 7
2026 Week 7 Standard RB Rankings
Final pre-kickoff board · published October 22, 2026, 17:35 UTC · first kickoff October 23, 2026, 00:15 UTC
Standard, 1QB · 107 players projected · updated October 22, 2026
How these rankings work
How these rankings are built
We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.
We then update those expectations for Week 7 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.
We then simulate the week 4,000 times and rank players by the projected fantasy points those simulations produce.
This board is priced in Standard. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.
What the percentages mean
For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.
- Top 3
- how often he finishes among the top three at his position
- Top 12
- how often he finishes in the top 12
- Top 24
- how often he finishes in the top 24
A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.
How often a strong start lasts
Since 1999, 66% of RBs inside the top 12 through Week 6 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 326 RB-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.
What stood out in Week 7
107 RBs ranked for Week 7. Jahmyr Gibbs leads at 19.0 projected points.
Tier break
3.2 projected points separate RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs from RB2 Kenneth Walker III.
Biggest differences from the draft market
Ahead
- Woody MarksRB20Sportsbooks pricing him above our baselineTop 3: 5% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 49% +23 vs. RB43
- Emanuel WilsonRB27Our projection is higher than the outside forecastTop 3: 3% · Top 12: 20% · Top 24: 43% +23 vs. RB50
- Braelon AllenRB23Recent usage above his season baseline and our projection is higher than the outside forecastTop 3: 4% · Top 12: 24% · Top 24: 47% +22 vs. RB45
Behind
- Saquon BarkleyRB22Recent usage below his season baseline and our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 7% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 45% -10 vs. RB12
- Chase BrownRB17Sportsbooks pricing him below our baselineTop 3: 7% · Top 12: 30% · Top 24: 53% -8 vs. RB9
- Cam SkatteboRB28Sportsbooks pricing him below our baselineTop 3: 3% · Top 12: 18% · Top 24: 39% -8 vs. RB20
Movement
Risers
- Breece HallRB15Top 3: 10% · Top 12: 33% · Top 24: 55% ↑ 74
- Kendre MillerRB31Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 13% · Top 24: 32% ↑ 7
- Jaylen WarrenRB7Top 3: 12% · Top 12: 43% · Top 24: 69% ↑ 5
Fallers
- Emanuel WilsonRB27Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 20% · Top 24: 43% ↓ 11
- Cam SkatteboRB28Top 3: 3% · Top 12: 18% · Top 24: 39% ↓ 11
- Rhamondre StevensonRB25Top 3: 4% · Top 12: 23% · Top 24: 47% ↓ 10
Positional movement since the final Week 6 board, among players inside RB36 either week. Players not ranked at their position then are excluded.
| # | Pos | Player | Pos rank | Proj | Outcome profile | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB | Jahmyr GibbsDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 31% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 15%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB7 at the median, RB3 - RB16 in the middle half, and RB1 - RB29 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 31%Top 12: 67%Top 24: 85% |
RB1NEW | 19.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 31% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 15%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB7 at the median, RB3 - RB16 in the middle half, and RB1 - RB29 in the middle 80%. | |
| 2 | RB | Kenneth Walker IIIKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 21% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 22%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB22 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 21%Top 12: 57%Top 24: 78% |
RB2↓ 1 | 15.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 21% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 22%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB22 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%. | |
| 3 | RB | Bijan RobinsonATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 18% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 23%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB23 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB33 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 18%Top 12: 54%Top 24: 77% |
RB3↓ 1 | 15.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 18% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 23%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB23 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB33 in the middle 80%. | |
| 4 | RB | Derrick HenryBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 18% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 25%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB5 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 18%Top 12: 52%Top 24: 75% |
RB4↓ 1 | 14.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 18% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 25%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB5 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%. | |
| 5 | RB | Christian McCaffreySF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 24%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB5 - RB24 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 16%Top 12: 53%Top 24: 76% |
RB5↑ 2 | 14.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 24%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB5 - RB24 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%. | |
| 6 | RB | Kyren WilliamsLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB37 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 14%Top 12: 45%Top 24: 70% |
RB6— | 13.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB37 in the middle 80%. | |
| 7 | RB | Jaylen WarrenPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB37 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 43%Top 24: 69% |
RB7↑ 5 | 12.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB37 in the middle 80%. | |
| 8 | RB | Jonathan TaylorIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB37 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 43%Top 24: 69% |
RB8↓ 4 | 12.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB37 in the middle 80%. | |
| 9 | RB | Chuba HubbardCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 34%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 42%Top 24: 66% |
RB9↑ 1 | 12.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 34%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%. | |
| 10 | RB | D'Andre SwiftCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 37%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB8 - RB32 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB40 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 40%Top 24: 63% |
RB10↓ 1 | 11.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 37%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB8 - RB32 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB40 in the middle 80%. | |
| 11 | RB | Javonte WilliamsDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 38%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB8 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 38%Top 24: 62% |
RB11↓ 3 | 11.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 38%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB8 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%. | |
| 12 | RB | Aaron Jones Sr.MIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 38%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB9 - RB32 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 37%Top 24: 62% |
RB12NEW | 11.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 38%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB9 - RB32 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB41 in the middle 80%. | |
| 13 | RB | Bucky IrvingTBQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 41%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB9 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB43 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 36%Top 24: 59% |
RB13↓ 2 | 11.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 41%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB9 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB43 in the middle 80%. | |
| 14 | RB | Ashton JeantyLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 38%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB9 - RB32 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 37%Top 24: 62% |
RB14↓ 1 | 11.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 38%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB9 - RB32 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB39 in the middle 80%. | |
| 15 | RB | Breece HallNYJQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB9 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 55% |
RB15↑ 74 | 11.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB9 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB48 in the middle 80%. | |
| 16 | RB | Quinshon JudkinsCLEQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 48%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB10 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 31%Top 24: 52% |
RB16↑ 3 | 10.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 48%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB10 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB51 in the middle 80%. | |
| 17 | RB | Chase BrownCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB35 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB43 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 30%Top 24: 53% |
RB17NEW | 10.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB35 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB43 in the middle 80%. | |
| 18 | RB | Tony PollardTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB11 - RB34 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 55% |
RB18↑ 3 | 9.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB11 - RB34 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB42 in the middle 80%. | |
| 19 | RB | Josh JacobsGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 52%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB11 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 48% |
RB19NEW | 9.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 52%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB11 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB53 in the middle 80%. | |
| 20 | RB | Woody MarksHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB12 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB46 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 49% |
RB20↑ 4 | 9.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB12 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB46 in the middle 80%. | |
| 21 | RB | Jeremiyah LoveARIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 46% |
RB21↑ 1 | 9.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB53 in the middle 80%. | |
| 22 | RB | Saquon BarkleyPHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB13 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB54 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 45% |
RB22↑ 3 | 9.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB13 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB54 in the middle 80%. | |
| 23 | RB | Braelon AllenNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB13 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB46 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 47% |
RB23↓ 3 | 9.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB13 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB46 in the middle 80%. | |
| 24 | RB | J.K. DobbinsDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 47% |
RB24↑ 2 | 9.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB48 in the middle 80%. | |
| 25 | RB | Rhamondre StevensonNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB47 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 47% |
RB25↓ 10 | 8.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB47 in the middle 80%. | |
| 26 | RB | Ollie Gordon IIMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB14 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 42% |
RB26NEW | 8.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB14 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB50 in the middle 80%. | |
| 27 | RB | Emanuel WilsonSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB15 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 43% |
RB27↓ 11 | 8.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 57%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB15 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB49 in the middle 80%. | |
| 28 | RB | Cam SkatteboNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB16 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 18%Top 24: 39% |
RB28↓ 11 | 7.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB16 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB51 in the middle 80%. | |
| 29 | RB | David MontgomeryHOUQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB19 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB65 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 15%Top 24: 32% |
RB29NEW | 6.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB19 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB65 in the middle 80%. | |
| 30 | RB | Blake CorumLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB19 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 32% |
RB30↑ 2 | 6.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB19 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB55 in the middle 80%. | |
| 31 | RB | Kendre MillerNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB36 at the median, RB20 - RB47 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB59 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 32% |
RB31↑ 7 | 6.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB36 at the median, RB20 - RB47 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB59 in the middle 80%. | |
| 32 | RB | RJ HarveyDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB21 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB59 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 29% |
RB32↑ 1 | 6.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB21 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB59 in the middle 80%. | |
| 33 | RB | Tyler AllgeierARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB21 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB57 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 28% |
RB33↑ 4 | 6.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB21 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB57 in the middle 80%. | |
| 34 | RB | Rico DowdlePITQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB23 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB69 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 27% |
RB34↑ 2 | 5.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB23 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB69 in the middle 80%. | |
| 35 | RB | Brian Robinson Jr.ATLQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB22 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB69 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 28% |
RB35↓ 5 | 5.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB22 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB69 in the middle 80%. | |
| 36 | RB | Alvin KamaraNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB26 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB70 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 24% |
RB36↓ 5 | 5.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB26 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB70 in the middle 80%. | |
| 37 | RB | Roschon JohnsonCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB44 at the median, RB25 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 24% |
RB37↑ 13 | 5.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB44 at the median, RB25 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB68 in the middle 80%. | |
| 38 | RB | TreVeyon HendersonNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB29 - RB54 in the middle half, and RB16 - RB65 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 21% |
RB38↓ 10 | 5.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB29 - RB54 in the middle half, and RB16 - RB65 in the middle 80%. | |
| 39 | RB | MarShawn LloydGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB46 at the median, RB28 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB16 - RB70 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 22% |
RB39↓ 10 | 4.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB46 at the median, RB28 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB16 - RB70 in the middle 80%. | |
| 40 | RB | Dameon PiercePHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB30 - RB63 in the middle half, and RB16 - RB76 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 20% |
RB40↓ 1 | 4.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB30 - RB63 in the middle half, and RB16 - RB76 in the middle 80%. | |
| 41 | RB | Kaelon BlackSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB46 at the median, RB33 - RB57 in the middle half, and RB18 - RB68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 18% |
RB41↑ 2 | 4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB46 at the median, RB33 - RB57 in the middle half, and RB18 - RB68 in the middle 80%. | |
| 42 | RB | Samaje PerineCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB47 at the median, RB32 - RB59 in the middle half, and RB18 - RB71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 18% |
RB42NEW | 4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB47 at the median, RB32 - RB59 in the middle half, and RB18 - RB71 in the middle 80%. | |
| 43 | RB | Mike Washington Jr.LVQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB50 at the median, RB33 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB76 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 17% |
RB43↑ 3 | 4.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB50 at the median, RB33 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB76 in the middle 80%. | |
| 44 | RB | Kenny GainwellTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB51 at the median, RB36 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB75 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 16% |
RB44↓ 4 | 4.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB51 at the median, RB36 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB75 in the middle 80%. | |
| 45 | RB | Bam KnightARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB51 at the median, RB37 - RB65 in the middle half, and RB20 - RB76 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 14% |
RB45↑ 42 | 3.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB51 at the median, RB37 - RB65 in the middle half, and RB20 - RB76 in the middle 80%. | |
| 46 | RB | Tyjae SpearsTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB50 at the median, RB38 - RB62 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB72 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 13% |
RB46↓ 5 | 3.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB50 at the median, RB38 - RB62 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB72 in the middle 80%. | |
| 47 | RB | Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB39 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB74 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 13% |
RB47↑ 20 | 3.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB39 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB74 in the middle 80%. | |
| 48 | RB | George HolaniSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB54 at the median, RB40 - RB66 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB78 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 13% |
RB48↓ 4 | 3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB54 at the median, RB40 - RB66 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB78 in the middle 80%. | |
| 49 | RB | Justice HillBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB41 - RB63 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB74 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 12% |
RB49↓ 4 | 3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB41 - RB63 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB74 in the middle 80%. | |
| 50 | RB | Emmett JohnsonKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB54 at the median, RB40 - RB67 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB78 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 12% |
RB50↑ 1 | 3.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB54 at the median, RB40 - RB67 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB78 in the middle 80%. | |
| 51 | RB | Pierre Strong Jr.GB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB43 - RB73 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB85 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 11% |
RB51↓ 9 | 3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB43 - RB73 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB85 in the middle 80%. | |
| 52 | RB | Jaleel McLaughlinCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB58 at the median, RB42 - RB72 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB84 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 11% |
RB52↑ 17 | 3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB58 at the median, RB42 - RB72 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB84 in the middle 80%. | |
| 53 | RB | Evan HullARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB43 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 11% |
RB53NEW | 3.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB43 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB90 in the middle 80%. | |
| 54 | RB | Dare OgunbowaleHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB63 at the median, RB45 - RB78 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB89 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 11% |
RB54↑ 7 | 3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB63 at the median, RB45 - RB78 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB89 in the middle 80%. | |
| 55 | RB | Emari DemercadoDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB46 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB25 - RB88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 9% |
RB55↑ 16 | 2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB46 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB25 - RB88 in the middle 80%. | |
| 56 | RB | Zamir WhiteNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB48 - RB82 in the middle half, and RB25 - RB95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 10% |
RB56NEW | 2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB48 - RB82 in the middle half, and RB25 - RB95 in the middle 80%. | |
| 57 | RB | Kaleb JohnsonGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB49 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 9% |
RB57↓ 3 | 2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB49 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB88 in the middle 80%. | |
| 58 | RB | Tyler GoodsonDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB49 - RB78 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB89 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 9% |
RB58↓ 5 | 2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB49 - RB78 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB89 in the middle 80%. | |
| 59 | RB | CJ DonaldsonNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB48 - RB78 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB89 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 9% |
RB59↓ 1 | 2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB48 - RB78 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB89 in the middle 80%. | |
| 60 | RB | Devin SingletaryNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB63 at the median, RB47 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 9% |
RB60↑ 12 | 2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB63 at the median, RB47 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB88 in the middle 80%. | |
| 61 | RB | Phil MafahNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB47 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 9% |
RB61↑ 12 | 2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB47 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB93 in the middle 80%. | |
| 62 | RB | Jaylen WrightMIAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB63 at the median, RB47 - RB79 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 9% |
RB62NEW | 2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB63 at the median, RB47 - RB79 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB91 in the middle 80%. | |
| 63 | RB | Sincere McCormickSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB47 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 8% |
RB63NEW | 2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB47 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB93 in the middle 80%. | |
| 64 | RB | Jonathan WardBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB47 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 9% |
RB64NEW | 2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB47 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB93 in the middle 80%. | |
| 65 | RB | Corey KinerNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB49 - RB75 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB84 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 8% |
RB65↓ 10 | 2.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB49 - RB75 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB84 in the middle 80%. | |
| 66 | RB | Khalil HerbertATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB68 at the median, RB49 - RB84 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 9% |
RB66NEW | 2.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB68 at the median, RB49 - RB84 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB95 in the middle 80%. | |
| 67 | RB | AJ DillonCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB50 - RB78 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 8% |
RB67↓ 11 | 2.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB50 - RB78 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB88 in the middle 80%. | |
| 68 | RB | Sione VakiDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB51 - RB79 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB89 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 9% |
RB68NEW | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB51 - RB79 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB89 in the middle 80%. | |
| 69 | RB | Seth McGowanIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB66 at the median, RB53 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
RB69↓ 12 | 2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB66 at the median, RB53 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB87 in the middle 80%. | |
| 70 | RB | Kyle JuszczykSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB68 at the median, RB53 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 7% |
RB70↓ 7 | 2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB68 at the median, RB53 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB91 in the middle 80%. | |
| 71 | RB | Anthony Tyus IIICAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB68 at the median, RB54 - RB82 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
RB71↓ 12 | 2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB68 at the median, RB54 - RB82 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB93 in the middle 80%. | |
| 72 | RB | DJ HermanMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB69 at the median, RB54 - RB84 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
RB72NEW | 2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB69 at the median, RB54 - RB84 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB95 in the middle 80%. | |
| 73 | RB | Jordan JamesSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB69 at the median, RB54 - RB83 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 7% |
RB73↑ 4 | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB69 at the median, RB54 - RB83 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB93 in the middle 80%. | |
| 74 | RB | Brashard SmithKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB58 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB32 - RB97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB74↓ 6 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB58 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB32 - RB97 in the middle 80%. | |
| 75 | RB | Israel AbanikandaDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB75 at the median, RB56 - RB90 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
RB75NEW | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB75 at the median, RB56 - RB90 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB100 in the middle 80%. | |
| 76 | RB | Isaiah DavisNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB73 at the median, RB59 - RB85 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB76— | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB73 at the median, RB59 - RB85 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB95 in the middle 80%. | |
| 77 | RB | Audric EstiméCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB61 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB102 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
RB77NEW | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB61 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB102 in the middle 80%. | |
| 78 | RB | Sean TuckerTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB64 - RB92 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB78↓ 8 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB64 - RB92 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB101 in the middle 80%. | |
| 79 | RB | Michael BurtonCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB78 at the median, RB63 - RB90 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 4% |
RB79NEW | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB78 at the median, RB63 - RB90 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB98 in the middle 80%. | |
| 80 | RB | Kalel MullingsTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB66 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB41 - RB103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB80NEW | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB66 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB41 - RB103 in the middle 80%. | |
| 81 | RB | Josh WilliamsTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB65 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB81NEW | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB65 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB103 in the middle 80%. | |
| 82 | RB | Zavier ScottCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB66 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB82↑ 13 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB66 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB103 in the middle 80%. | |
| 83 | RB | Robert Henry Jr.SEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB65 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB83↑ 1 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB65 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB104 in the middle 80%. | |
| 84 | RB | Owen WrightLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB67 - RB97 in the middle half, and RB43 - RB105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB84NEW | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB67 - RB97 in the middle half, and RB43 - RB105 in the middle 80%. | |
| 85 | RB | Kendall MiltonCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB68 - RB97 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB85NEW | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB68 - RB97 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB105 in the middle 80%. | |
| 86 | RB | Lan LarisonNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB70 - RB97 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB86↓ 12 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB70 - RB97 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB105 in the middle 80%. | |
| 87 | RB | Jerome FordARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB68 - RB97 in the middle half, and RB45 - RB104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
RB87NEW | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB68 - RB97 in the middle half, and RB45 - RB104 in the middle 80%. | |
| 88 | RB | Velus Jones Jr.SEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB69 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB88NEW | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB69 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB104 in the middle 80%. | |
| 89 | RB | Tyler BadieDENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB67 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB47 - RB103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB89↓ 10 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB67 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB47 - RB103 in the middle 80%. | |
| 90 | RB | Jarquez HunterNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB67 - RB97 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB90NEW | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB67 - RB97 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB105 in the middle 80%. | |
| 91 | RB | Dean ConnorsLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB72 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB55 - RB103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB91↓ 13 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB72 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB55 - RB103 in the middle 80%. | |
| 92 | RB | Carlos Washington Jr.MIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB106 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB92NEW | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB106 in the middle 80%. | |
| 93 | RB | Tahj BrooksCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB70 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB52 - RB102 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB93NEW | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB70 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB52 - RB102 in the middle 80%. | |
| 94 | RB | Cody SchraderDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB74 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB52 - RB107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB94↓ 4 | 1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB74 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB52 - RB107 in the middle 80%. | |
| 95 | RB | Salvon AhmedCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB77 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB57 - RB108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB95↓ 20 | 1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB77 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB57 - RB108 in the middle 80%. | |
| 96 | RB | Jaret PattersonCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB76 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB57 - RB108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB96NEW | 1.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB76 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB57 - RB108 in the middle 80%. | |
| 97 | RB | Nicholas SingletonTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB79 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB62 - RB107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB97↓ 33 | 1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB79 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB62 - RB107 in the middle 80%. | |
| 98 | RB | Dylan LaubeLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB80 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB66 - RB105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB98↓ 18 | 1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB80 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB66 - RB105 in the middle 80%. | |
| 99 | RB | Hunter LuepkeDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB78 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB63 - RB105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB99↓ 3 | 1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB78 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB63 - RB105 in the middle 80%. | |
| 100 | RB | Jam MillerATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB95 at the median, RB82 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB64 - RB109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB100NEW | 1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB95 at the median, RB82 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB64 - RB109 in the middle 80%. | |
| 101 | RB | Demond ClaiborneMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB81 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB65 - RB107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB101NEW | 1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB81 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB65 - RB107 in the middle 80%. | |
| 102 | RB | Trevor EtienneCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB82 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB65 - RB108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB102NEW | 1.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB82 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB65 - RB108 in the middle 80%. | |
| 103 | RB | Patrick RicardNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB96 at the median, RB85 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB70 - RB108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB103↓ 18 | 1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB96 at the median, RB85 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB70 - RB108 in the middle 80%. | |
| 104 | RB | DeeJay DallasMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB96 at the median, RB85 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB71 - RB108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB104NEW | 1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB96 at the median, RB85 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB71 - RB108 in the middle 80%. | |
| 105 | RB | Travis HomerPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB97 at the median, RB87 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB73 - RB108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB105↓ 39 | 1.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB97 at the median, RB87 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB73 - RB108 in the middle 80%. | |
| 106 | RB | Ben VanSumerenKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB99 at the median, RB88 - RB106 in the middle half, and RB74 - RB110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB106NEW | 0.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB99 at the median, RB88 - RB106 in the middle half, and RB74 - RB110 in the middle 80%. | |
| 107 | RB | Kaytron AllenMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB99 at the median, RB89 - RB106 in the middle half, and RB75 - RB110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB107↓ 45 | 0.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB99 at the median, RB89 - RB106 in the middle half, and RB75 - RB110 in the middle 80%. |
Simulated finishes
This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.
Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.
Week 7 RB outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.
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RB1 Jahmyr GibbsRB7Jahmyr Gibbs is ranked RB1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB7 at the median, RB3 - RB16 in the middle half, and RB1 - RB29 in the middle 80%.
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RB10Kenneth Walker III is ranked RB2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB22 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%.
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RB3 Bijan RobinsonRB11Bijan Robinson is ranked RB3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB23 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB33 in the middle 80%.
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RB4 Derrick HenryRB12Derrick Henry is ranked RB4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB5 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%.
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RB12Christian McCaffrey is ranked RB5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB5 - RB24 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%.
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RB6 Kyren WilliamsRB14Kyren Williams is ranked RB6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB37 in the middle 80%.
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RB7 Jaylen WarrenRB15Jaylen Warren is ranked RB7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB37 in the middle 80%.
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RB8 Jonathan TaylorRB15Jonathan Taylor is ranked RB8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB28 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB37 in the middle 80%.
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RB9 Chuba HubbardRB16Chuba Hubbard is ranked RB9 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
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RB10 D'Andre SwiftRB17D'Andre Swift is ranked RB10 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB8 - RB32 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB40 in the middle 80%.
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RB11 Javonte WilliamsRB18Javonte Williams is ranked RB11 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB8 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
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RB12 Aaron Jones Sr.RB18Aaron Jones Sr. is ranked RB12 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB9 - RB32 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
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RB13 Bucky IrvingRB19Bucky Irving is ranked RB13 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB9 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB43 in the middle 80%.
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RB14 Ashton JeantyRB18Ashton Jeanty is ranked RB14 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB9 - RB32 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
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RB15 Breece HallRB21Breece Hall is ranked RB15 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB9 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
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RB16 Quinshon JudkinsRB23Quinshon Judkins is ranked RB16 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB10 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
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RB17 Chase BrownRB22Chase Brown is ranked RB17 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB35 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB43 in the middle 80%.
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RB18 Tony PollardRB22Tony Pollard is ranked RB18 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB11 - RB34 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
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RB19 Josh JacobsRB25Josh Jacobs is ranked RB19 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB11 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
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RB20 Woody MarksRB25Woody Marks is ranked RB20 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB12 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB46 in the middle 80%.
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RB21 Jeremiyah LoveRB27Jeremiyah Love is ranked RB21 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
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RB22 Saquon BarkleyRB28Saquon Barkley is ranked RB22 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB13 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB54 in the middle 80%.
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RB23 Braelon AllenRB26Braelon Allen is ranked RB23 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB13 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB46 in the middle 80%.
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RB24 J.K. DobbinsRB27J.K. Dobbins is ranked RB24 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
Show RB25 - RB36
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RB25 Rhamondre StevensonRB27Rhamondre Stevenson is ranked RB25 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB47 in the middle 80%.
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RB26 Ollie Gordon IIRB30Ollie Gordon II is ranked RB26 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB14 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
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RB27 Emanuel WilsonRB29Emanuel Wilson is ranked RB27 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB15 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
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RB28 Cam SkatteboRB31Cam Skattebo is ranked RB28 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB16 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
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RB29 David MontgomeryRB38David Montgomery is ranked RB29 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB19 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB65 in the middle 80%.
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RB30 Blake CorumRB35Blake Corum is ranked RB30 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB19 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
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RB31 Kendre MillerRB36Kendre Miller is ranked RB31 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB36 at the median, RB20 - RB47 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB59 in the middle 80%.
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RB32 RJ HarveyRB37RJ Harvey is ranked RB32 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB21 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB59 in the middle 80%.
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RB33 Tyler AllgeierRB38Tyler Allgeier is ranked RB33 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB21 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB57 in the middle 80%.
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RB34 Rico DowdleRB40Rico Dowdle is ranked RB34 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB23 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB69 in the middle 80%.
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RB35 Brian Robinson Jr.RB42Brian Robinson Jr. is ranked RB35 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB22 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB69 in the middle 80%.
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RB36 Alvin KamaraRB43Alvin Kamara is ranked RB36 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB26 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB70 in the middle 80%.
Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.
The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.
How these are made
This board was built from 2026 usage for 76% of the board, draft position for 99%, an outside projection for 54%, sportsbook props for 66%, an official status for 81%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Standard, 1QB.
Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured October 22, 2026 17:33 UTC. Movement is previous - current; positive means the player moved up the board (a smaller rank number), measured in positional rank against the final Week 6 board generated before that week's first kickoff (October 15, 2026). Model rankings-v1.5.0, board captured 2026-10-22.
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
