NFL · 2026 Week 7
2026 Week 7 Full PPR RB Rankings
Final pre-kickoff board · published October 22, 2026, 17:35 UTC · first kickoff October 23, 2026, 00:15 UTC
Full PPR, 1QB · 105 players projected · updated October 22, 2026
How these rankings work
How these rankings are built
We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.
We then update those expectations for Week 7 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.
We then simulate the week 4,000 times and rank players by the projected fantasy points those simulations produce.
This board is priced in Full PPR. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.
What the percentages mean
For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.
- Top 3
- how often he finishes among the top three at his position
- Top 12
- how often he finishes in the top 12
- Top 24
- how often he finishes in the top 24
A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.
How often a strong start lasts
Since 1999, 66% of RBs inside the top 12 through Week 6 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 325 RB-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.
What stood out in Week 7
105 RBs ranked for Week 7. Jahmyr Gibbs leads at 23.8 projected points.
Tier breaks
4.1 projected points separate RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs from RB2 Christian McCaffrey.
1.9 projected points separate RB17 Breece Hall from RB18 Josh Jacobs.
Biggest differences from the draft market
Ahead
- Woody MarksRB21Sportsbooks pricing him above our baselineTop 3: 5% · Top 12: 24% · Top 24: 51% +22 vs. RB43
- Braelon AllenRB24Recent usage above his season baseline and our projection is higher than the outside forecastTop 3: 3% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 48% +21 vs. RB45
- Emanuel WilsonRB29Our projection is higher than the outside forecastTop 3: 2% · Top 12: 16% · Top 24: 40% +21 vs. RB50
Behind
- TreVeyon HendersonRB43Sportsbooks pricing him below our baseline and our projection is lower than the outside forecast -13 vs. RB30
- Saquon BarkleyRB23Recent usage below his season baseline and our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 6% · Top 12: 24% · Top 24: 46% -11 vs. RB12
- Cam SkatteboRB28Sportsbooks pricing him below our baselineTop 3: 2% · Top 12: 17% · Top 24: 40% -8 vs. RB20
Movement
Risers
- Breece HallRB17Top 3: 9% · Top 12: 33% · Top 24: 56% ↑ 74
- Roschon JohnsonRB36Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 8% · Top 24: 24% ↑ 10
- Kendre MillerRB34Top 3: 1% · Top 12: 11% · Top 24: 30% ↑ 8
Fallers
- MarShawn LloydRB39Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 6% · Top 24: 21% ↓ 13
- TreVeyon HendersonRB43 ↓ 13
- Cam SkatteboRB28Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 17% · Top 24: 40% ↓ 11
Positional movement since the final Week 6 board, among players inside RB36 either week. Players not ranked at their position then are excluded.
| # | Pos | Player | Pos rank | Proj | Outcome profile | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB | Jahmyr GibbsDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 33% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB6 at the median, RB2 - RB15 in the middle half, and RB1 - RB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 33%Top 12: 71%Top 24: 89% |
RB1NEW | 23.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 33% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB6 at the median, RB2 - RB15 in the middle half, and RB1 - RB26 in the middle 80%. | |
| 2 | RB | Christian McCaffreySF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 21% of the time, 4th to 12th 40%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 17%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB9 at the median, RB4 - RB19 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB30 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 21%Top 12: 60%Top 24: 83% |
RB2↑ 1 | 19.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 21% of the time, 4th to 12th 40%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 17%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB9 at the median, RB4 - RB19 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB30 in the middle 80%. | |
| 3 | RB | Kenneth Walker IIIKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 20%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 20%Top 12: 57%Top 24: 80% |
RB3↓ 2 | 18.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 20%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%. | |
| 4 | RB | Bijan RobinsonATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 20%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB33 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 19%Top 12: 56%Top 24: 80% |
RB4↓ 2 | 18.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 20%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB33 in the middle 80%. | |
| 5 | RB | Kyren WilliamsLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 23%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB5 - RB23 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 16%Top 12: 51%Top 24: 77% |
RB5↓ 1 | 17.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 23%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB5 - RB23 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%. | |
| 6 | RB | Derrick HenryBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 28%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 14%Top 12: 46%Top 24: 72% |
RB6— | 16.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 28%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%. | |
| 7 | RB | Jaylen WarrenPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 25%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB36 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 13%Top 12: 46%Top 24: 75% |
RB7↑ 3 | 16.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 25%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB36 in the middle 80%. | |
| 8 | RB | Ashton JeantyLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB27 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB38 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 42%Top 24: 70% |
RB8— | 15.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB27 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB38 in the middle 80%. | |
| 9 | RB | Jonathan TaylorIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB27 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 42%Top 24: 70% |
RB9↓ 4 | 15.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB27 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%. | |
| 10 | RB | Chuba HubbardCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB8 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 39%Top 24: 67% |
RB10↑ 2 | 14.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB8 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%. | |
| 11 | RB | D'Andre SwiftCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 40%Top 24: 67% |
RB11— | 14.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%. | |
| 12 | RB | Javonte WilliamsDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 35%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB8 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 38%Top 24: 65% |
RB12↓ 3 | 14.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 35%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB8 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB42 in the middle 80%. | |
| 13 | RB | Aaron Jones Sr.MIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 35%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB9 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 37%Top 24: 65% |
RB13NEW | 14.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 35%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB9 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB42 in the middle 80%. | |
| 14 | RB | Chase BrownCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 35%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB9 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 36%Top 24: 65% |
RB14NEW | 14.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 28%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 35%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB9 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB41 in the middle 80%. | |
| 15 | RB | Bucky IrvingTBQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 39%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB9 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB45 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 35%Top 24: 61% |
RB15↓ 2 | 14.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 25%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 39%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB9 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB45 in the middle 80%. | |
| 16 | RB | Quinshon JudkinsCLEQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 43%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB9 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 34%Top 24: 57% |
RB16↓ 2 | 13.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 43%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB9 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB51 in the middle 80%. | |
| 17 | RB | Breece HallNYJQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 44%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB9 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 56% |
RB17↑ 74 | 13.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 44%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB9 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB51 in the middle 80%. | |
| 18 | RB | Josh JacobsGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB12 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 49% |
RB18NEW | 11.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 51%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB12 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB56 in the middle 80%. | |
| 19 | RB | Tony PollardTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB13 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB46 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 53% |
RB19↑ 2 | 11.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB13 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB46 in the middle 80%. | |
| 20 | RB | Rhamondre StevensonNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB13 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 51% |
RB20↓ 5 | 11.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB13 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB48 in the middle 80%. | |
| 21 | RB | Woody MarksHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB13 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 51% |
RB21↑ 2 | 11.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB13 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB48 in the middle 80%. | |
| 22 | RB | Jeremiyah LoveARIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB13 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 47% |
RB22— | 11.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB13 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB56 in the middle 80%. | |
| 23 | RB | Saquon BarkleyPHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB58 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 46% |
RB23↑ 2 | 11.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB58 in the middle 80%. | |
| 24 | RB | Braelon AllenNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 52%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB14 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 48% |
RB24↓ 6 | 10.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 52%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB14 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB49 in the middle 80%. | |
| 25 | RB | J.K. DobbinsDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB14 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 46% |
RB25↑ 3 | 10.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB14 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB52 in the middle 80%. | |
| 26 | RB | Ollie Gordon IIMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB15 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 41% |
RB26NEW | 9.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB15 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB55 in the middle 80%. | |
| 27 | RB | RJ HarveyDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB16 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 42% |
RB27↑ 2 | 9.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB16 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB52 in the middle 80%. | |
| 28 | RB | Cam SkatteboNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB16 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 40% |
RB28↓ 11 | 9.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB16 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB53 in the middle 80%. | |
| 29 | RB | Emanuel WilsonSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB17 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB54 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 40% |
RB29↓ 10 | 9.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB17 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB54 in the middle 80%. | |
| 30 | RB | Blake CorumLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 67%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB20 - RB47 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB57 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 33% |
RB30↑ 2 | 8.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 67%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB20 - RB47 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB57 in the middle 80%. | |
| 31 | RB | David MontgomeryHOUQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB21 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB69 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 31% |
RB31NEW | 8.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB21 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB69 in the middle 80%. | |
| 32 | RB | Alvin KamaraNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB21 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB64 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 30% |
RB32↓ 5 | 8.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB21 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB64 in the middle 80%. | |
| 33 | RB | Tyler AllgeierARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB22 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB58 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 29% |
RB33↑ 3 | 7.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB22 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB58 in the middle 80%. | |
| 34 | RB | Kendre MillerNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB21 - RB51 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB63 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 30% |
RB34↑ 8 | 7.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB21 - RB51 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB63 in the middle 80%. | |
| 35 | RB | Rico DowdlePITQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB22 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB70 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 28% |
RB35↑ 3 | 7.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB22 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB70 in the middle 80%. | |
| 36 | RB | Roschon JohnsonCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB25 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 24% |
RB36↑ 10 | 6.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB25 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB68 in the middle 80%. | |
| 37 | RB | Brian Robinson Jr.ATLQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB25 - RB59 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB73 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 25% |
RB37↓ 4 | 6.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB25 - RB59 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB73 in the middle 80%. | |
| 38 | RB | Dameon PiercePHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB26 - RB59 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB72 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 22% |
RB38↑ 3 | 6.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB26 - RB59 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB72 in the middle 80%. | |
| 39 | RB | MarShawn LloydGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB44 at the median, RB27 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 21% |
RB39↓ 13 | 6.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB44 at the median, RB27 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB68 in the middle 80%. | |
| 40 | RB | Kenny GainwellTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB29 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB69 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 19% |
RB40↓ 1 | 6.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB45 at the median, RB29 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB69 in the middle 80%. | |
| 41 | RB | Tyjae SpearsTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB44 at the median, RB31 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB65 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 17% |
RB41↓ 6 | 6.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB44 at the median, RB31 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB65 in the middle 80%. | |
| 42 | RB | Samaje PerineCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB46 at the median, RB30 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB18 - RB70 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 18% |
RB42NEW | 6.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB46 at the median, RB30 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB18 - RB70 in the middle 80%. | |
| 43 | RB | TreVeyon HendersonNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB47 at the median, RB31 - RB59 in the middle half, and RB18 - RB71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 18% |
RB43↓ 13 | 5.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB47 at the median, RB31 - RB59 in the middle half, and RB18 - RB71 in the middle 80%. | |
| 44 | RB | Justice HillBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB47 at the median, RB36 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 13% |
RB44— | 5.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB47 at the median, RB36 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB68 in the middle 80%. | |
| 45 | RB | Kaelon BlackSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB51 at the median, RB36 - RB63 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB75 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 14% |
RB45↑ 4 | 5.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB51 at the median, RB36 - RB63 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB75 in the middle 80%. | |
| 46 | RB | Mike Washington Jr.LVQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB54 at the median, RB35 - RB68 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB80 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 14% |
RB46↑ 2 | 5.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB54 at the median, RB35 - RB68 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB80 in the middle 80%. | |
| 47 | RB | Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB51 at the median, RB37 - RB63 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB73 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 12% |
RB47↑ 16 | 5.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB51 at the median, RB37 - RB63 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB73 in the middle 80%. | |
| 48 | RB | George HolaniSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB37 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB75 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 12% |
RB48↓ 5 | 4.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB37 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB75 in the middle 80%. | |
| 49 | RB | Emmett JohnsonKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB38 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB75 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 12% |
RB49↑ 1 | 4.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB52 at the median, RB38 - RB64 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB75 in the middle 80%. | |
| 50 | RB | Pierre Strong Jr.GB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB54 at the median, RB38 - RB68 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB81 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 12% |
RB50↓ 10 | 4.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB54 at the median, RB38 - RB68 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB81 in the middle 80%. | |
| 51 | RB | Bam KnightARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB56 at the median, RB40 - RB70 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB82 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 11% |
RB51↑ 46 | 4.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB56 at the median, RB40 - RB70 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB82 in the middle 80%. | |
| 52 | RB | Sincere McCormickSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB56 at the median, RB39 - RB72 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 11% |
RB52NEW | 4.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB56 at the median, RB39 - RB72 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB86 in the middle 80%. | |
| 53 | RB | Jaleel McLaughlinCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB56 at the median, RB40 - RB70 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB82 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10% |
RB53↑ 9 | 4.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB56 at the median, RB40 - RB70 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB82 in the middle 80%. | |
| 54 | RB | Phil MafahNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB56 at the median, RB39 - RB72 in the middle half, and RB25 - RB86 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10% |
RB54↑ 18 | 4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB56 at the median, RB39 - RB72 in the middle half, and RB25 - RB86 in the middle 80%. | |
| 55 | RB | Evan HullARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB61 at the median, RB42 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10% |
RB55NEW | 4.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB61 at the median, RB42 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB90 in the middle 80%. | |
| 56 | RB | Devin SingletaryNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB60 at the median, RB44 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB85 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 8% |
RB56↑ 15 | 4.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB60 at the median, RB44 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB85 in the middle 80%. | |
| 57 | RB | Kyle JuszczykSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB45 - RB72 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB83 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 8% |
RB57↑ 1 | 4.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB45 - RB72 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB83 in the middle 80%. | |
| 58 | RB | Emari DemercadoDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB63 at the median, RB47 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB89 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 8% |
RB58↑ 24 | 3.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB63 at the median, RB47 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB89 in the middle 80%. | |
| 59 | RB | Tyler GoodsonDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB63 at the median, RB47 - RB76 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 7% |
RB59↓ 6 | 3.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB63 at the median, RB47 - RB76 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB87 in the middle 80%. | |
| 60 | RB | CJ DonaldsonNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB48 - RB79 in the middle half, and RB29 - RB90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 7% |
RB60↓ 3 | 3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB65 at the median, RB48 - RB79 in the middle half, and RB29 - RB90 in the middle 80%. | |
| 61 | RB | Anthony Tyus IIICAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB50 - RB79 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB89 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB61↑ 3 | 3.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB64 at the median, RB50 - RB79 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB89 in the middle 80%. | |
| 62 | RB | Sione VakiDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB66 at the median, RB51 - RB79 in the middle half, and RB29 - RB89 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
RB62NEW | 3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB66 at the median, RB51 - RB79 in the middle half, and RB29 - RB89 in the middle 80%. | |
| 63 | RB | Zamir WhiteNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB51 - RB86 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 7% |
RB63NEW | 3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB51 - RB86 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB98 in the middle 80%. | |
| 64 | RB | Dare OgunbowaleHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB69 at the median, RB50 - RB84 in the middle half, and RB29 - RB95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
RB64↓ 4 | 3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB69 at the median, RB50 - RB84 in the middle half, and RB29 - RB95 in the middle 80%. | |
| 65 | RB | DJ HermanMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB66 at the median, RB50 - RB80 in the middle half, and RB32 - RB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB65NEW | 3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB66 at the median, RB50 - RB80 in the middle half, and RB32 - RB92 in the middle 80%. | |
| 66 | RB | Jonathan WardBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB69 at the median, RB49 - RB85 in the middle half, and RB29 - RB95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% |
RB66↑ 29 | 3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB69 at the median, RB49 - RB85 in the middle half, and RB29 - RB95 in the middle 80%. | |
| 67 | RB | AJ DillonCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB68 at the median, RB53 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB91 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB67↓ 11 | 3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB68 at the median, RB53 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB91 in the middle 80%. | |
| 68 | RB | Khalil HerbertATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB72 at the median, RB52 - RB88 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
RB68NEW | 3.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB72 at the median, RB52 - RB88 in the middle half, and RB30 - RB98 in the middle 80%. | |
| 69 | RB | Jordan JamesSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB68 at the median, RB53 - RB82 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB69↑ 7 | 3.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB68 at the median, RB53 - RB82 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB93 in the middle 80%. | |
| 70 | RB | Kaleb JohnsonGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB54 - RB83 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB93 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB70↓ 15 | 3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB54 - RB83 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB93 in the middle 80%. | |
| 71 | RB | Jaylen WrightMIAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB71 at the median, RB53 - RB86 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB71NEW | 3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB71 at the median, RB53 - RB86 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB96 in the middle 80%. | |
| 72 | RB | Seth McGowanIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB56 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
RB72↓ 13 | 3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB56 - RB81 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB90 in the middle 80%. | |
| 73 | RB | Corey KinerNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB71 at the median, RB56 - RB82 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 4% |
RB73↓ 19 | 3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB71 at the median, RB56 - RB82 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB92 in the middle 80%. | |
| 74 | RB | Israel AbanikandaDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB55 - RB89 in the middle half, and RB34 - RB99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB74NEW | 2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB55 - RB89 in the middle half, and RB34 - RB99 in the middle 80%. | |
| 75 | RB | Isaiah DavisNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB73 at the median, RB59 - RB85 in the middle half, and RB37 - RB95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
RB75↓ 6 | 2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB73 at the median, RB59 - RB85 in the middle half, and RB37 - RB95 in the middle 80%. | |
| 76 | RB | Brashard SmithKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB77 at the median, RB61 - RB90 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB76↓ 6 | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB77 at the median, RB61 - RB90 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB100 in the middle 80%. | |
| 77 | RB | Tyler BadieDENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB77 at the median, RB61 - RB91 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB77↓ 11 | 2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB77 at the median, RB61 - RB91 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB100 in the middle 80%. | |
| 78 | RB | Owen WrightLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB64 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB40 - RB103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
RB78NEW | 2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB64 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB40 - RB103 in the middle 80%. | |
| 79 | RB | Velus Jones Jr.SEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB63 - RB92 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB79NEW | 2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB63 - RB92 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB101 in the middle 80%. | |
| 80 | RB | Josh WilliamsTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB65 - RB94 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB80NEW | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB65 - RB94 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB103 in the middle 80%. | |
| 81 | RB | Kendall MiltonCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB65 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB41 - RB104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB81NEW | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB65 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB41 - RB104 in the middle 80%. | |
| 82 | RB | Robert Henry Jr.SEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB63 - RB94 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB82↑ 6 | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB63 - RB94 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB103 in the middle 80%. | |
| 83 | RB | Jerome FordARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB64 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% |
RB83NEW | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB64 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB42 - RB103 in the middle 80%. | |
| 84 | RB | Michael BurtonCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB66 - RB92 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB84NEW | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB80 at the median, RB66 - RB92 in the middle half, and RB44 - RB100 in the middle 80%. | |
| 85 | RB | Lan LarisonNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB67 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB46 - RB104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB85↓ 17 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB83 at the median, RB67 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB46 - RB104 in the middle 80%. | |
| 86 | RB | Jarquez HunterNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB64 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB45 - RB104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB86NEW | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB64 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB45 - RB104 in the middle 80%. | |
| 87 | RB | Audric EstiméCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB73 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB87NEW | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB73 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB108 in the middle 80%. | |
| 88 | RB | Tahj BrooksCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB68 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB88NEW | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB68 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB101 in the middle 80%. | |
| 89 | RB | Hunter LuepkeDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB69 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB55 - RB100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB89↑ 5 | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB69 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB55 - RB100 in the middle 80%. | |
| 90 | RB | Kalel MullingsTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB75 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB90NEW | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB90 at the median, RB75 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB108 in the middle 80%. | |
| 91 | RB | Salvon AhmedCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB70 - RB98 in the middle half, and RB51 - RB106 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB91↓ 18 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB70 - RB98 in the middle half, and RB51 - RB106 in the middle 80%. | |
| 92 | RB | Jaret PattersonCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB69 - RB98 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB92NEW | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB69 - RB98 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB105 in the middle 80%. | |
| 93 | RB | Dean ConnorsLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB73 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB55 - RB104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB93↓ 19 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB73 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB55 - RB104 in the middle 80%. | |
| 94 | RB | Sean TuckerTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB76 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB41 - RB107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB94↓ 15 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB76 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB41 - RB107 in the middle 80%. | |
| 95 | RB | Dylan LaubeLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB74 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB59 - RB101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB95↓ 18 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB85 at the median, RB74 - RB95 in the middle half, and RB59 - RB101 in the middle 80%. | |
| 96 | RB | Cody SchraderDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB92 at the median, RB78 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB55 - RB109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB96↑ 3 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB92 at the median, RB78 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB55 - RB109 in the middle 80%. | |
| 97 | RB | Zavier ScottCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB78 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB52 - RB109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB97↓ 13 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB78 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB52 - RB109 in the middle 80%. | |
| 98 | RB | Demond ClaiborneMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB78 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB61 - RB107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB98NEW | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB78 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB61 - RB107 in the middle 80%. | |
| 99 | RB | DeeJay DallasMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB76 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB62 - RB105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
RB99NEW | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB76 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB62 - RB105 in the middle 80%. | |
| 100 | RB | Jam MillerATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB79 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB62 - RB109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB100NEW | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB93 at the median, RB79 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB62 - RB109 in the middle 80%. | |
| 101 | RB | Patrick RicardNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB92 at the median, RB79 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB64 - RB107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
RB101↓ 15 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB92 at the median, RB79 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB64 - RB107 in the middle 80%. | |
| 102 | RB | Carlos Washington Jr.MIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB98 at the median, RB83 - RB106 in the middle half, and RB59 - RB111 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB102NEW | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB98 at the median, RB83 - RB106 in the middle half, and RB59 - RB111 in the middle 80%. | |
| 103 | RB | Nicholas SingletonTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB96 at the median, RB84 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB67 - RB109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB103↓ 25 | 1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB96 at the median, RB84 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB67 - RB109 in the middle 80%. | |
| 104 | RB | Trevor EtienneCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB82 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB65 - RB109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB104NEW | 1.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB82 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB65 - RB109 in the middle 80%. | |
| 105 | RB | Ben VanSumerenKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB99 at the median, RB88 - RB106 in the middle half, and RB73 - RB110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 0% |
RB105NEW | 1.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 0%, and outside the top 24 100%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB99 at the median, RB88 - RB106 in the middle half, and RB73 - RB110 in the middle 80%. |
Simulated finishes
This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.
Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.
Week 7 RB outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.
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RB1 Jahmyr GibbsRB6Jahmyr Gibbs is ranked RB1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB6 at the median, RB2 - RB15 in the middle half, and RB1 - RB26 in the middle 80%.
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RB9Christian McCaffrey is ranked RB2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB9 at the median, RB4 - RB19 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB30 in the middle 80%.
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RB10Kenneth Walker III is ranked RB3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB34 in the middle 80%.
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RB4 Bijan RobinsonRB11Bijan Robinson is ranked RB4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB33 in the middle 80%.
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RB5 Kyren WilliamsRB12Kyren Williams is ranked RB5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB5 - RB23 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%.
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RB6 Derrick HenryRB14Derrick Henry is ranked RB6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
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RB7 Jaylen WarrenRB14Jaylen Warren is ranked RB7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB36 in the middle 80%.
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RB8 Ashton JeantyRB15Ashton Jeanty is ranked RB8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB27 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB38 in the middle 80%.
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RB9 Jonathan TaylorRB15Jonathan Taylor is ranked RB9 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB27 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
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RB10 Chuba HubbardRB17Chuba Hubbard is ranked RB10 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB8 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
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RB11 D'Andre SwiftRB16D'Andre Swift is ranked RB11 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB8 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
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RB12 Javonte WilliamsRB17Javonte Williams is ranked RB12 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB8 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
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RB13 Aaron Jones Sr.RB17Aaron Jones Sr. is ranked RB13 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB17 at the median, RB9 - RB31 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
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RB14 Chase BrownRB18Chase Brown is ranked RB14 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB9 - RB30 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB41 in the middle 80%.
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RB15 Bucky IrvingRB19Bucky Irving is ranked RB15 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB19 at the median, RB9 - RB33 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB45 in the middle 80%.
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RB16 Quinshon JudkinsRB20Quinshon Judkins is ranked RB16 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB20 at the median, RB9 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
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RB17 Breece HallRB21Breece Hall is ranked RB17 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB9 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
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RB18 Josh JacobsRB25Josh Jacobs is ranked RB18 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB25 at the median, RB12 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
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RB19 Tony PollardRB23Tony Pollard is ranked RB19 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB13 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB46 in the middle 80%.
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RB20 Rhamondre StevensonRB24Rhamondre Stevenson is ranked RB20 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB13 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
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RB21 Woody MarksRB24Woody Marks is ranked RB21 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB13 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
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RB22 Jeremiyah LoveRB26Jeremiyah Love is ranked RB22 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB13 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB56 in the middle 80%.
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RB23 Saquon BarkleyRB27Saquon Barkley is ranked RB23 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB58 in the middle 80%.
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RB24 Braelon AllenRB26Braelon Allen is ranked RB24 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB14 - RB40 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
Show RB25 - RB36
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RB25 J.K. DobbinsRB27J.K. Dobbins is ranked RB25 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB14 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
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RB26 Ollie Gordon IIRB30Ollie Gordon II is ranked RB26 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB15 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
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RB27 RJ HarveyRB29RJ Harvey is ranked RB27 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB29 at the median, RB16 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
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RB28 Cam SkatteboRB31Cam Skattebo is ranked RB28 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB16 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB53 in the middle 80%.
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RB29 Emanuel WilsonRB31Emanuel Wilson is ranked RB29 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB17 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB54 in the middle 80%.
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RB30 Blake CorumRB35Blake Corum is ranked RB30 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB20 - RB47 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB57 in the middle 80%.
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RB31 David MontgomeryRB40David Montgomery is ranked RB31 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB21 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB69 in the middle 80%.
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RB32 Alvin KamaraRB38Alvin Kamara is ranked RB32 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB21 - RB52 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB64 in the middle 80%.
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RB33 Tyler AllgeierRB37Tyler Allgeier is ranked RB33 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB22 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB58 in the middle 80%.
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RB34 Kendre MillerRB38Kendre Miller is ranked RB34 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB21 - RB51 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB63 in the middle 80%.
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RB35 Rico DowdleRB40Rico Dowdle is ranked RB35 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB22 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB70 in the middle 80%.
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RB36 Roschon JohnsonRB43Roschon Johnson is ranked RB36 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB25 - RB58 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB68 in the middle 80%.
Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.
The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.
How these are made
This board was built from 2026 usage for 76% of the board, draft position for 99%, an outside projection for 54%, sportsbook props for 66%, an official status for 81%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Full PPR, 1QB.
Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured October 22, 2026 17:33 UTC. Movement is previous - current; positive means the player moved up the board (a smaller rank number), measured in positional rank against the final Week 6 board generated before that week's first kickoff (October 15, 2026). Model rankings-v1.5.0, board captured 2026-10-22.
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
