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NFL · 2026 Week 8

2026 Week 8 QB Rankings

Final pre-kickoff board · published October 29, 2026, 16:59 UTC · first kickoff October 30, 2026, 00:15 UTC

Half PPR, 1QB · 29 players projected · updated October 29, 2026

See how these rankings performed

View current weekly rankings

How these rankings work

How these rankings are built

We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.

We then update those expectations for Week 8 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.

We then simulate the week 4,000 times. The projected fantasy points those simulations produce set the order and the tiers.

This board is priced in Half PPR. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.

How the tiers work

Players are grouped into tiers at each position by projected fantasy points. A new tier starts where the projections separate, not after a set number of players, so tiers vary in size and a player who stands apart can be a tier on his own.

The breaks come from the best grouping of each position's projections, the method behind Jenks natural breaks, with gaps judged against how widely weekly scores vary at that position. The rule is the same every week and nobody places players by hand.

Within a tier, players are listed by projected points, but the gaps between them are small. They shouldn't decide a start/sit on their own.

A tier's band is the range of its players' projected points. It isn't a range of outcomes.

A player's 80% range is the middle of his simulated scores: the model puts 10% of outcomes below it and 10% above. Real scores can land outside it.

Players in neighbouring tiers often have overlapping ranges. A higher tier means more projected points, not a guarantee of outscoring everyone below it.

What the percentages mean

For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.

Top 3
how often he finishes among the top three at his position
Top 12
how often he finishes in the top 12
Top 24
how often he finishes in the top 24

A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.

How often a strong start lasts

Since 1999, 73% of QBs inside the top 12 through Week 7 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 324 QB-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.

What stood out in Week 8

29 QBs in 7 tiers for Week 8. Josh Allen leads at 20.3 projected points.

Tiers break where projected points separate, and the differences inside a tier are small. Each 80% range is the middle 80% of that player's simulated scores; real scores can fall outside it.

2026 Week 8 QB Rankings -- Half PPR scoring: players grouped into tiers by projected fantasy points, each with his 80% range of simulated scores and the share of simulated weeks finishing top 3, top 12 and top 24 at the position. From our own statistical and market model, not analyst consensus.
Pos Player Proj
Tier 1 19.6 - 20.3 projected points
QB Josh AllenBUF
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 25% of the time, 4th to 12th 39%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 9%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB16 in the middle half, and QB1 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 25%Top 12: 64%Top 24: 91%
80% range: 7.9 - 34.7
 20.3
QB Joe BurrowCIN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 22% of the time, 4th to 12th 39%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 10%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB17 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 22%Top 12: 61%Top 24: 90%
80% range: 7.4 - 33.6
 19.6
Tier 2 17.4 - 18.8 projected points
QB Dak PrescottDAL
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 40%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 10%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB10 at the median, QB4 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 20%Top 12: 60%Top 24: 90%
80% range: 7.3 - 31.8
 18.8
QB Jayden DanielsWAS
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 18% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 33%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB5 - QB19 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 18%Top 12: 55%Top 24: 88%
80% range: 6.3 - 31.6
 18.1
QB Drake MayeNE
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 17% of the time, 4th to 12th 40%, 13th to 24th 33%, and outside the top 24 10%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB5 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 17%Top 12: 57%Top 24: 90%
80% range: 7.1 - 30.0
 18.0
QB Trevor LawrenceJAX
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 34%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB5 - QB19 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 16%Top 12: 54%Top 24: 88%
80% range: 6.3 - 29.5
 17.4
Tier 3 15.5 - 16.5 projected points
QB Jared GoffDET
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 38%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 13%Top 12: 50%Top 24: 88%
80% range: 6.4 - 28.6
 16.5
QB Jordan LoveGB
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 38%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 49%Top 24: 88%
80% range: 6.5 - 27.8
 16.4
QB Bryce YoungCAR
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 40%, and outside the top 24 13%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 47%Top 24: 87%
80% range: 6.1 - 27.7
 16.1
QB Jacoby BrissettARI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 41%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 47%Top 24: 88%
80% range: 6.4 - 27.0
 15.9
QB Caleb WilliamsCHI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 40%, and outside the top 24 15%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 45%Top 24: 85%
80% range: 5.7 - 27.8
 15.8
QB Matthew StaffordLAR
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 41%, and outside the top 24 14%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 45%Top 24: 86%
80% range: 6.0 - 26.5
 15.6
QB Kirk CousinsLV
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 43%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 45%Top 24: 88%
80% range: 6.2 - 26.6
 15.5
Tier 4 14.1 - 15.1 projected points
QB Michael Penix Jr.ATL
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 43%, and outside the top 24 15%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 42%Top 24: 85%
80% range: 5.6 - 26.4
 15.1
QB Geno SmithNYJ
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 44%, and outside the top 24 14%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 42%Top 24: 86%
80% range: 5.8 - 25.3
 15.0
QB Kyler MurrayMIN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 43%, and outside the top 24 16%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 41%Top 24: 84%
80% range: 5.3 - 25.6
 14.9
QB Aaron RodgersPIT
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 45%, and outside the top 24 16%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB9 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 39%Top 24: 84%
80% range: 5.5 - 25.1
 14.4
QB Patrick MahomesKC
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 45%, and outside the top 24 17%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB9 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 38%Top 24: 83%
80% range: 5.3 - 24.8
 14.4
QB Sam DarnoldSEA
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 45%, and outside the top 24 18%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB9 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 37%Top 24: 82%
80% range: 5.1 - 24.6
 14.1
Tier 5 13.1 - 13.8 projected points
QB Bo NixDEN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 46%, and outside the top 24 18%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB10 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 36%Top 24: 82%
80% range: 5.4 - 23.4
 13.8
QB Baker MayfieldTB
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 45%, and outside the top 24 21%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB10 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 34%Top 24: 79%
80% range: 4.5 - 24.6
 13.6
QB Justin HerbertLAC
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 48%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB10 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 81%
80% range: 5.3 - 23.2
 13.4
QB Malik WillisMIA
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 48%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB10 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 32%Top 24: 81%
80% range: 5.3 - 22.9
 13.3
QB Deshaun WatsonCLE
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 52%, and outside the top 24 17%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB11 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB6 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 31%Top 24: 83%
80% range: 5.8 - 22.4
 13.1
Tier 6 9.4 - 11.1 projected points
QB Tanner McKeePHI
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 45%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB21 at the median, QB14 - QB26 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 67%
80% range: 3.7 - 20.7
 11.1
QB Cam WardTEN
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 52%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB21 at the median, QB15 - QB25 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 70%
80% range: 4.6 - 18.1
 10.5
QB Daniel JonesIND
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 52%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB21 at the median, QB15 - QB25 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 69%
80% range: 4.4 - 18.1
 10.3
QB Lamar JacksonBALQQuestionable · Starter not confirmed · projection includes a 50% chance of starting
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB29 at the median, QB12 - QB42 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB44 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 44%
80% range: 0.0 - 26.8
 9.4
Tier 7 6.4 projected points
QB Tyler HuntleyBAL
Starter not confirmed · projection includes a 45% chance of starting
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB42 at the median, QB19 - QB44 in the middle half, and QB9 - QB45 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 15%Top 24: 35%
80% range: 0.0 - 19.4
 6.4

Simulated finishes

This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.

Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.

Week 8 QB outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.

Projected rank
Median finish
136122436
  1. Tier 1 Josh Allen
    QB9
    Josh Allen is in Tier 1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB16 in the middle half, and QB1 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
  2. Tier 1 Joe Burrow
    QB9
    Joe Burrow is in Tier 1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB17 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
  3. Tier 2 Dak Prescott
    QB10
    Dak Prescott is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB10 at the median, QB4 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
  4. Tier 2 Jayden Daniels
    QB11
    Jayden Daniels is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB5 - QB19 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
  5. Tier 2 Drake Maye
    QB11
    Drake Maye is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB5 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
  6. Tier 2 Trevor Lawrence
    QB12
    Trevor Lawrence is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB5 - QB19 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
  7. Tier 3 Jared Goff
    QB13
    Jared Goff is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
  8. Tier 3 Jordan Love
    QB13
    Jordan Love is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
  9. Tier 3 Bryce Young
    QB13
    Bryce Young is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
  10. Tier 3 Jacoby Brissett
    QB13
    Jacoby Brissett is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
  11. Tier 3 Caleb Williams
    QB14
    Caleb Williams is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
  12. Tier 3 Matthew Stafford
    QB14
    Matthew Stafford is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
  13. Tier 3 Kirk Cousins
    QB14
    Kirk Cousins is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
  14. Tier 4 Michael Penix Jr.
    QB15
    Michael Penix Jr. is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
  15. Tier 4 Geno Smith
    QB15
    Geno Smith is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
  16. Tier 4 Kyler Murray
    QB15
    Kyler Murray is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  17. Tier 4 Aaron Rodgers
    QB15
    Aaron Rodgers is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB9 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  18. Tier 4 Patrick Mahomes
    QB16
    Patrick Mahomes is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB9 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  19. Tier 4 Sam Darnold
    QB16
    Sam Darnold is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB9 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  20. Tier 5 Bo Nix
    QB16
    Bo Nix is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB10 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  21. Tier 5 Baker Mayfield
    QB17
    Baker Mayfield is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB10 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  22. Tier 5 Justin Herbert
    QB17
    Justin Herbert is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB10 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  23. Tier 5 Malik Willis
    QB17
    Malik Willis is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB10 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
  24. Tier 5 Deshaun Watson
    QB17
    Deshaun Watson is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB11 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB6 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Show QB25 - QB29
  1. Tier 6 Tanner McKee
    QB21
    Tanner McKee is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB21 at the median, QB14 - QB26 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
  2. Tier 6 Cam Ward
    QB21
    Cam Ward is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB21 at the median, QB15 - QB25 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
  3. Tier 6 Daniel Jones
    QB21
    Daniel Jones is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB21 at the median, QB15 - QB25 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
  4. Tier 6 Lamar Jackson
    QB29
    Lamar Jackson is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB29 at the median, QB12 - QB42 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB44 in the middle 80%.
  5. Tier 7 Tyler Huntley
    QB42
    Tyler Huntley is in Tier 7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB42 at the median, QB19 - QB44 in the middle half, and QB9 - QB45 in the middle 80%.

Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.

The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.

How these are made

This board was built from 2026 usage for 77% of the board, draft position for 99%, an outside projection for 55%, sportsbook props for 65%, an official status for 81%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Half PPR, 1QB.

Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured October 29, 2026 16:58 UTC. Model rankings-v1.5.1, board captured 2026-10-29.

LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.

LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.5.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props).

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