NFL · 2026 Week 8
2026 Week 8 Standard QB Rankings
Final pre-kickoff board · published October 29, 2026, 16:59 UTC · first kickoff October 30, 2026, 00:15 UTC
Standard, 1QB · 30 players projected · updated October 29, 2026
How these rankings work
How these rankings are built
We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.
We then update those expectations for Week 8 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.
We then simulate the week 4,000 times. The projected fantasy points those simulations produce set the order and the tiers.
This board is priced in Standard. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.
How the tiers work
Players are grouped into tiers at each position by projected fantasy points. A new tier starts where the projections separate, not after a set number of players, so tiers vary in size and a player who stands apart can be a tier on his own.
The breaks come from the best grouping of each position's projections, the method behind Jenks natural breaks, with gaps judged against how widely weekly scores vary at that position. The rule is the same every week and nobody places players by hand.
Within a tier, players are listed by projected points, but the gaps between them are small. They shouldn't decide a start/sit on their own.
A tier's band is the range of its players' projected points. It isn't a range of outcomes.
A player's 80% range is the middle of his simulated scores: the model puts 10% of outcomes below it and 10% above. Real scores can land outside it.
Players in neighbouring tiers often have overlapping ranges. A higher tier means more projected points, not a guarantee of outscoring everyone below it.
What the percentages mean
For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.
- Top 3
- how often he finishes among the top three at his position
- Top 12
- how often he finishes in the top 12
- Top 24
- how often he finishes in the top 24
A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.
How often a strong start lasts
Since 1999, 73% of QBs inside the top 12 through Week 7 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 324 QB-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.
What stood out in Week 8
30 QBs in 8 tiers for Week 8. Josh Allen leads at 20.3 projected points.
Tiers break where projected points separate, and the differences inside a tier are small. Each 80% range is the middle 80% of that player's simulated scores; real scores can fall outside it.
| Pos | Player | Proj | Outcome profile | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 19.6 - 20.3 projected points | |||||||
| QB | Josh AllenBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 25% of the time, 4th to 12th 39%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 9%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB16 in the middle half, and QB1 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 25%Top 12: 64%Top 24: 91% 80% range: 7.8 - 34.6 |
20.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 25% of the time, 4th to 12th 39%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 9%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB16 in the middle half, and QB1 - QB24 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Joe BurrowCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 22% of the time, 4th to 12th 39%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 10%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB17 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 22%Top 12: 61%Top 24: 90% 80% range: 7.4 - 33.6 |
19.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 22% of the time, 4th to 12th 39%, 13th to 24th 29%, and outside the top 24 10%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB17 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB24 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 2 17.4 - 18.8 projected points | |||||||
| QB | Dak PrescottDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 40%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 10%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB10 at the median, QB4 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 20%Top 12: 60%Top 24: 90% 80% range: 7.3 - 31.8 |
18.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 40%, 13th to 24th 30%, and outside the top 24 10%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB10 at the median, QB4 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB24 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Jayden DanielsWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 18% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 33%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB5 - QB19 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 18%Top 12: 55%Top 24: 88% 80% range: 6.3 - 31.6 |
18.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 18% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 33%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB5 - QB19 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Drake MayeNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 17% of the time, 4th to 12th 40%, 13th to 24th 33%, and outside the top 24 10%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB5 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 17%Top 12: 57%Top 24: 90% 80% range: 7.1 - 30.0 |
18.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 17% of the time, 4th to 12th 40%, 13th to 24th 33%, and outside the top 24 10%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB5 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Trevor LawrenceJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 34%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB5 - QB19 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 16%Top 12: 54%Top 24: 88% 80% range: 6.3 - 29.5 |
17.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 16% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 34%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB5 - QB19 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 3 15.5 - 16.5 projected points | |||||||
| QB | Jared GoffDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 38%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 13%Top 12: 50%Top 24: 88% 80% range: 6.4 - 28.6 |
16.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 38%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Jordan LoveGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 38%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 49%Top 24: 88% 80% range: 6.5 - 27.8 |
16.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 38%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Bryce YoungCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 40%, and outside the top 24 13%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 47%Top 24: 87% 80% range: 6.1 - 27.7 |
16.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 40%, and outside the top 24 13%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Jacoby BrissettARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 41%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 11%Top 12: 46%Top 24: 88% 80% range: 6.4 - 27.0 |
15.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 11% of the time, 4th to 12th 36%, 13th to 24th 41%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Caleb WilliamsCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 40%, and outside the top 24 15%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 45%Top 24: 85% 80% range: 5.7 - 27.8 |
15.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 40%, and outside the top 24 15%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Matthew StaffordLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 41%, and outside the top 24 14%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 46%Top 24: 86% 80% range: 6.0 - 26.5 |
15.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 41%, and outside the top 24 14%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Kirk CousinsLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 43%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 45%Top 24: 88% 80% range: 6.2 - 26.6 |
15.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 35%, 13th to 24th 43%, and outside the top 24 12%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB26 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 4 14.1 - 15.1 projected points | |||||||
| QB | Michael Penix Jr.ATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 43%, and outside the top 24 15%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 42%Top 24: 85% 80% range: 5.6 - 26.4 |
15.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 43%, and outside the top 24 15%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB26 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Geno SmithNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 44%, and outside the top 24 14%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 42%Top 24: 86% 80% range: 5.8 - 25.3 |
15.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 44%, and outside the top 24 14%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB26 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Kyler MurrayMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 43%, and outside the top 24 16%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 41%Top 24: 84% 80% range: 5.3 - 25.6 |
14.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 43%, and outside the top 24 16%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Aaron RodgersPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 45%, and outside the top 24 16%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB9 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 39%Top 24: 84% 80% range: 5.5 - 25.1 |
14.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 45%, and outside the top 24 16%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB9 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Patrick MahomesKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 45%, and outside the top 24 17%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB9 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 38%Top 24: 83% 80% range: 5.3 - 24.8 |
14.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 45%, and outside the top 24 17%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB9 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Sam DarnoldSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 45%, and outside the top 24 18%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB9 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 37%Top 24: 82% 80% range: 5.1 - 24.6 |
14.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 45%, and outside the top 24 18%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB9 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 5 13.1 - 13.8 projected points | |||||||
| QB | Bo NixDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 47%, and outside the top 24 18%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB10 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 36%Top 24: 82% 80% range: 5.4 - 23.4 |
13.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 47%, and outside the top 24 18%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB10 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB27 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Baker MayfieldTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 45%, and outside the top 24 21%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB10 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 34%Top 24: 79% 80% range: 4.5 - 24.6 |
13.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 45%, and outside the top 24 21%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB10 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Malik WillisMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 48%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB10 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 32%Top 24: 81% 80% range: 5.3 - 22.9 |
13.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 48%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB10 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB27 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Justin HerbertLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 48%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB10 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 81% 80% range: 5.2 - 23.1 |
13.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 48%, and outside the top 24 19%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB10 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB27 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Deshaun WatsonCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 52%, and outside the top 24 17%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB11 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB6 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 31%Top 24: 83% 80% range: 5.8 - 22.4 |
13.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 52%, and outside the top 24 17%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB11 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB6 - QB27 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 6 9.4 - 11.1 projected points | |||||||
| QB | Tanner McKeePHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 45%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB21 at the median, QB14 - QB26 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 67% 80% range: 3.7 - 20.7 |
11.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 45%, and outside the top 24 33%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB21 at the median, QB14 - QB26 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB28 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Cam WardTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 52%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB21 at the median, QB15 - QB25 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 70% 80% range: 4.6 - 18.1 |
10.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 52%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB21 at the median, QB15 - QB25 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB28 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Daniel JonesIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 52%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB21 at the median, QB15 - QB25 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 69% 80% range: 4.4 - 18.1 |
10.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 52%, and outside the top 24 31%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB21 at the median, QB15 - QB25 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB28 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| QB | Lamar JacksonBALQQuestionable · Starter not confirmed · projection includes a 50% chance of starting Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB29 at the median, QB12 - QB42 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB44 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 44% 80% range: 0.0 - 26.8 |
9.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB29 at the median, QB12 - QB42 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB44 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 7 6.4 projected points | |||||||
| QB | Tyler HuntleyBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Starter not confirmed · projection includes a 45% chance of starting
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB42 at the median, QB19 - QB44 in the middle half, and QB9 - QB45 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 15%Top 24: 35% 80% range: 0.0 - 19.4 |
6.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB42 at the median, QB19 - QB44 in the middle half, and QB9 - QB45 in the middle 80%. | ||||
| Tier 8 0.7 projected points | |||||||
| QB | Joshua DobbsDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB29 at the median, QB28 - QB30 in the middle half, and QB26 - QB31 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 4% 80% range: 0.0 - 0.0 |
0.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB29 at the median, QB28 - QB30 in the middle half, and QB26 - QB31 in the middle 80%. | ||||
Simulated finishes
This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.
Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.
Week 8 QB outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.
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Tier 1 Josh AllenQB9Josh Allen is in Tier 1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB16 in the middle half, and QB1 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 1 Joe BurrowQB9Joe Burrow is in Tier 1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB9 at the median, QB4 - QB17 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 2 Dak PrescottQB10Dak Prescott is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB10 at the median, QB4 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB24 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 2 Jayden DanielsQB11Jayden Daniels is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB5 - QB19 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 2 Drake MayeQB11Drake Maye is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB11 at the median, QB5 - QB18 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 2 Trevor LawrenceQB12Trevor Lawrence is in Tier 2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB12 at the median, QB5 - QB19 in the middle half, and QB2 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Jared GoffQB13Jared Goff is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB6 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Jordan LoveQB13Jordan Love is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Bryce YoungQB13Bryce Young is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Jacoby BrissettQB13Jacoby Brissett is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB13 at the median, QB7 - QB20 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB25 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Caleb WilliamsQB14Caleb Williams is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Matthew StaffordQB14Matthew Stafford is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB3 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 3 Kirk CousinsQB14Kirk Cousins is in Tier 3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB14 at the median, QB7 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Michael Penix Jr.QB15Michael Penix Jr. is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Geno SmithQB15Geno Smith is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB21 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB26 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Kyler MurrayQB15Kyler Murray is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB8 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Aaron RodgersQB15Aaron Rodgers is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB15 at the median, QB9 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Patrick MahomesQB16Patrick Mahomes is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB9 - QB22 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 4 Sam DarnoldQB16Sam Darnold is in Tier 4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB9 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Bo NixQB16Bo Nix is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB16 at the median, QB10 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Baker MayfieldQB17Baker Mayfield is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB10 - QB24 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Malik WillisQB17Malik Willis is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB10 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Justin HerbertQB17Justin Herbert is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB10 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB5 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 5 Deshaun WatsonQB17Deshaun Watson is in Tier 5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB17 at the median, QB11 - QB23 in the middle half, and QB6 - QB27 in the middle 80%.
Show QB25 - QB30
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Tier 6 Tanner McKeeQB21Tanner McKee is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB21 at the median, QB14 - QB26 in the middle half, and QB7 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 6 Cam WardQB21Cam Ward is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB21 at the median, QB15 - QB25 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 6 Daniel JonesQB21Daniel Jones is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB21 at the median, QB15 - QB25 in the middle half, and QB10 - QB28 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 6 Lamar JacksonQB29Lamar Jackson is in Tier 6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB29 at the median, QB12 - QB42 in the middle half, and QB4 - QB44 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 7 Tyler HuntleyQB42Tyler Huntley is in Tier 7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB42 at the median, QB19 - QB44 in the middle half, and QB9 - QB45 in the middle 80%.
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Tier 8 Joshua DobbsQB29Joshua Dobbs is in Tier 8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes QB29 at the median, QB28 - QB30 in the middle half, and QB26 - QB31 in the middle 80%.
Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.
The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.
How these are made
This board was built from 2026 usage for 77% of the board, draft position for 99%, an outside projection for 55%, sportsbook props for 65%, an official status for 81%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Standard, 1QB.
Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured October 29, 2026 16:58 UTC. Model rankings-v1.5.1, board captured 2026-10-29.
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
