SEA · Bye 11
Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold comes off the board at 14.09 on average in 12-team Full PPR 1QB mock drafts, with a median of 15.01.
12-team Full PPR 1QB · 10,000 simulations · generated August 20, 2026
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulated ADP
14.09
pick 164.7 overall, on average
Median pick
15.01
half of simulations take him by pick 169
Draft range
12.11 - 15.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 4,635 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.01 in 78% of simulations
Pick 169 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.01 and 15.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.11 | 80% |
| 14.12 | 79% |
| 15.01 | 78% |
| 15.02 | 76% |
| 15.03 | 74% |
| 15.04 | 71% |
| 15.05 | 69% |
| 15.06 | 68% |
| 15.07 | 66% |
| 15.08 | 64% |
| 15.09 | 62% |
| 15.10 | 60% |
| 15.11 | 58% |
| 15.12 | 55% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.11-12.12 | 5% | 518 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | <1% | 26 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | <1% | 67 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | <1% | 72 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | <1% | 53 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | <1% | 60 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | <1% | 77 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | 1% | 138 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.04 | 1% | 142 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.06 | 2% | 160 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.08 | 2% | 188 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.10 | 2% | 202 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | 2% | 244 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 4% | 403 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03-15.04 | 4% | 436 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 4% | 366 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07-15.08 | 4% | 416 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09-15.10 | 4% | 414 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 4635 simulations in which Sam Darnold was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
- Detroit Lions DST · DET 2%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 2%
- Chris Boswell K · PIT 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 3%
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 2%
- Harrison Butker K · KC 2%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room. Nothing is estimated at page load: the batch runs offline and this page reads the result.
Sam Darnold was selected in 4635 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here has that count behind it, which is what it should be judged on.
We license no ADP feed, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.1
- Generated
- August 20, 2026
- Player dataset
- sleeper@2026-08-19T17:30:21.894Z
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.