SEA · Bye 11
Sam Darnold
LMD QB20 for Week 4 · 15.0 projected Full PPR points
Questionable
In season
Week 4 fantasy ranking
We project 15.0 points this week, QB20. Top 3: 11% · Top 12: 34% · Top 24: 69% of simulated weeks. Listed questionable.
Week 4
QB20
41st by projected points
Projected
15.0
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
34%
Top 3: 11% · Top 24: 69% at QB
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at QB in Week 3
Should you start Sam Darnold in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Sam Darnold QB20 for Week 4, outside the QB12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside QB12 in 34% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+0.56 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight negative-0.15 pts
- AvailabilityQuestionable
- Negative-0.79 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.34 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight negative-0.27 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Sam Darnold and the Seahawks are home favorites against the Chargers.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold exits the tunnel during player introductions.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Chazz Palminteri draws parallels between JJ McCarthy and Sam Darnold in 23-year-old QB's career rival after joining Giants
sportskeeda.com ·
-
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold drops back to pass against the Washington Commanders.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold practices on the sideline in the first quarter against the Washington Commanders.
Sports Illustrated ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Sam Darnold by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Sam Darnold has averaged -12.0 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs NE | 12.5 | 0.5 | -12.0 |
| Wk 2 | @ ARI | 7.8 | Pending | — |
| Wk 3 | — | — | 27.7 | — |
| Wk 4 | vs LAC | 15.0 | Pending | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at QB21. This week LMD has him 1 spot higher, at QB20.
Preseason market: QB21 · ADP 144.4
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
No current board ranks him, so there is nothing to compare his draft price with.
Week 4
QB20 +1
LMD has him 1 spot higher than his QB21 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
QB21 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Sam Darnold #103 in 1QB and #81 in Superflex, QB21 at his position. Age 29.
1QB
#103
QB21 · tier 25 · of 297
Superflex
#81
QB21 · tier 15 · of 303
- Last season 235.4 pts 13.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 92% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Attempts 24.6 / game Pass attempts per game, the opportunity the projection is built on.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
14.09
pick 164.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.01
half of simulations take him by pick 169
Draft range
12.11 - 15.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 4,404 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.01 in 79% of simulations
Pick 169 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 14.01 and 15.07.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 14.11 | 81% |
| 14.12 | 80% |
| 15.01 | 79% |
| 15.02 | 77% |
| 15.03 | 75% |
| 15.04 | 73% |
| 15.05 | 71% |
| 15.06 | 69% |
| 15.07 | 67% |
| 15.08 | 65% |
| 15.09 | 63% |
| 15.10 | 61% |
| 15.11 | 60% |
| 15.12 | 58% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 12.11-12.12 | 5% | 486 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.01-13.02 | <1% | 36 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.03-13.04 | <1% | 62 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.05-13.06 | <1% | 59 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.07-13.08 | <1% | 65 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.09-13.10 | <1% | 50 of 10000 simulations |
| 13.11-13.12 | <1% | 72 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.01-14.02 | 1% | 147 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.03-14.04 | 1% | 133 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.05-14.06 | 2% | 177 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.07-14.08 | 2% | 174 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.09-14.10 | 2% | 181 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11-14.12 | 2% | 217 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01-15.02 | 4% | 395 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03-15.04 | 4% | 382 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05-15.06 | 4% | 387 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07-15.08 | 4% | 395 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09-15.10 | 4% | 383 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 4404 simulations in which Sam Darnold was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 3%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 3%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 2%
- Jake Bates K · DET 2%
Usually taken just after
- Brandon Aubrey K · DAL 4%
- Andy Borregales K · NE 2%
- Green Bay Packers DST · GB 2%
- Seattle Seahawks DST · SEA 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Sam Darnold was selected in 4404 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.