NFL · 2026 Week 3
2026 Week 3 Half PPR RB Rankings
Final pre-kickoff board · published September 24, 2026, 22:49 UTC · first kickoff September 25, 2026, 00:15 UTC
Half PPR, 1QB · 103 players projected · updated September 24, 2026
See how these rankings performed
Sportsbook prices reached 45 of 145 fantasy-relevant players (31%), so the market half of this board is thinner than a full week's.
How these rankings work
How these rankings are built
We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.
We then update those expectations for Week 3 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.
We then simulate the week 4,000 times and rank players by the projected fantasy points those simulations produce.
This board is priced in Half PPR. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.
What the percentages mean
For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.
- Top 3
- how often he finishes among the top three at his position
- Top 12
- how often he finishes in the top 12
- Top 24
- how often he finishes in the top 24
A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.
How often a strong start lasts
Since 1999, 55% of RBs inside the top 12 through Week 2 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 324 RB-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.
What stood out in Week 3
103 RBs ranked for Week 3. Jahmyr Gibbs leads at 19.7 projected points.
Biggest differences from the draft market
Behind
- MarShawn LloydRB43Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 1% · Top 12: 7% · Top 24: 23% -8 vs. RB35
- Saquon BarkleyRB14Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 8% · Top 12: 30% · Top 24: 53% -5 vs. RB9
- Quinshon JudkinsRB25Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 4% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 46% -4 vs. RB21
| # | Pos | Player | Pos rank | Proj | Outcome profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RB | Jahmyr GibbsDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 23% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 16%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB9 at the median, RB4 - RB19 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB30 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 23%Top 12: 60%Top 24: 84% |
RB1 | 19.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 23% of the time, 4th to 12th 37%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 16%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB9 at the median, RB4 - RB19 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB30 in the middle 80%. |
| 2 | RB | Kenneth Walker IIIKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 22% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 16%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB19 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB30 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 22%Top 12: 60%Top 24: 84% |
RB2 | 19.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 22% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 16%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB19 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB30 in the middle 80%. |
| 3 | RB | Jonathan TaylorIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 22% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 21%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB22 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 22%Top 12: 57%Top 24: 79% |
RB3 | 19.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 22% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 21%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB22 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%. |
| 4 | RB | Derrick HenryBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 24%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB5 - RB24 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB37 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 20%Top 12: 52%Top 24: 76% |
RB4 | 17.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 20% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 24%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB5 - RB24 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB37 in the middle 80%. |
| 5 | RB | Bijan RobinsonATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 17% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 20%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB33 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 17%Top 12: 55%Top 24: 80% |
RB5 | 17.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 17% of the time, 4th to 12th 38%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 20%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB33 in the middle 80%. |
| 6 | RB | James CookBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 26%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB13 at the median, RB6 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB36 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 15%Top 12: 48%Top 24: 74% |
RB6 | 16.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 34%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 26%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB13 at the median, RB6 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB36 in the middle 80%. |
| 7 | RB | Christian McCaffreySF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 27%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB40 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 15%Top 12: 47%Top 24: 73% |
RB7 | 16.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 27%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB40 in the middle 80%. |
| 8 | RB | Ashton JeantyLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 27%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 14%Top 12: 46%Top 24: 73% |
RB8 | 16.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 33%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 27%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%. |
| 9 | RB | De'Von AchaneMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 28%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB37 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 12%Top 12: 44%Top 24: 72% |
RB9 | 15.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 12% of the time, 4th to 12th 32%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 28%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB37 in the middle 80%. |
| 10 | RB | Chase BrownCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 32%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 41%Top 24: 68% |
RB10 | 14.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 32%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%. |
| 11 | RB | Breece HallNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 37%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB9 - RB32 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 35%Top 24: 63% |
RB11 | 13.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 27%, 13th to 24th 28%, and outside the top 24 37%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB9 - RB32 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB42 in the middle 80%. |
| 12 | RB | D'Andre SwiftCHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 44%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB9 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 9%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 56% |
RB12 | 13.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 9% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 44%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB9 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB50 in the middle 80%. |
| 13 | RB | Bucky IrvingTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB10 - RB35 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB45 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 58% |
RB13 | 12.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB10 - RB35 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB45 in the middle 80%. |
| 14 | RB | Saquon BarkleyPHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 30%Top 24: 53% |
RB14 | 12.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB50 in the middle 80%. |
| 15 | RB | Omarion HamptonLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB11 - RB36 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB46 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 30%Top 24: 58% |
RB15 | 12.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 27%, and outside the top 24 42%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB11 - RB36 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB46 in the middle 80%. |
| 16 | RB | Javonte WilliamsDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 43%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB10 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB47 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 31%Top 24: 57% |
RB16 | 12.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 43%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB10 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB47 in the middle 80%. |
| 17 | RB | Cam SkatteboNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB11 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 53% |
RB17 | 11.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB11 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB49 in the middle 80%. |
| 18 | RB | Kyren WilliamsLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 48%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB12 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 26%Top 24: 52% |
RB18 | 11.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 48%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB12 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB48 in the middle 80%. |
| 19 | RB | Jeremiyah LoveARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB13 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 51% |
RB19 | 11.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 49%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB13 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB50 in the middle 80%. |
| 20 | RB | Chuba HubbardCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 46% |
RB20 | 10.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 23%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB51 in the middle 80%. |
| 21 | RB | Travis EtienneNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB14 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 44% |
RB21 | 10.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB14 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB55 in the middle 80%. |
| 22 | RB | David MontgomeryHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB14 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 47% |
RB22 | 10.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB14 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB52 in the middle 80%. |
| 23 | RB | Jaylen WarrenPITQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB14 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 45% |
RB23 | 10.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 55%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB14 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB55 in the middle 80%. |
| 24 | RB | Bhayshul TutenJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB14 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 22%Top 24: 47% |
RB24 | 10.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB14 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB49 in the middle 80%. |
| 25 | RB | Quinshon JudkinsCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB14 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 46% |
RB25 | 10.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB14 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB51 in the middle 80%. |
| 26 | RB | Aaron JonesMINQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB15 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB58 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 42% |
RB26 | 9.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB15 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB58 in the middle 80%. |
| 27 | RB | TreVeyon HendersonNEQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB16 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB62 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 40% |
RB27 | 9.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 60%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB16 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB62 in the middle 80%. |
| 28 | RB | Jadarian PriceSEAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB16 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB58 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 41% |
RB28 | 9.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB16 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB58 in the middle 80%. |
| 29 | RB | Rhamondre StevensonNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB16 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 17%Top 24: 41% |
RB29 | 9.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 14%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB16 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB52 in the middle 80%. |
| 30 | RB | Tony PollardTENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB19 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB60 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 15%Top 24: 35% |
RB30 | 8.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB19 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB60 in the middle 80%. |
| 31 | RB | Kyle MonangaiCHIQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB20 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB63 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 31% |
RB31 | 8.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB20 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB63 in the middle 80%. |
| 32 | RB | Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 67%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB20 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB60 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 33% |
RB32 | 8.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 67%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB20 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB60 in the middle 80%. |
| 33 | RB | Rachaad WhiteWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB36 at the median, RB21 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB58 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 31% |
RB33 | 7.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB36 at the median, RB21 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB58 in the middle 80%. |
| 34 | RB | Alvin KamaraNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB21 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB69 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 30% |
RB34 | 7.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 70%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB21 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB69 in the middle 80%. |
| 35 | RB | Blake CorumLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB21 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB60 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 31% |
RB35 | 7.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 69%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB21 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB60 in the middle 80%. |
| 36 | RB | Woody MarksHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB22 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB60 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 29% |
RB36 | 7.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 71%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB22 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB60 in the middle 80%. |
| 37 | RB | RJ HarveyDENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB41 at the median, RB24 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB70 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 26% |
RB37 | 7.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB41 at the median, RB24 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB70 in the middle 80%. |
| 38 | RB | Rico DowdlePITQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB24 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 26% |
RB38 | 7.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB24 - RB56 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB68 in the middle 80%. |
| 39 | RB | Tyjae SpearsTENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB25 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB67 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 24% |
RB39 | 6.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 15%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB25 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB67 in the middle 80%. |
| 40 | RB | J.K. DobbinsDENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB24 - RB57 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 26% |
RB40 | 6.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB24 - RB57 in the middle half, and RB13 - RB71 in the middle 80%. |
| 41 | RB | Kenny GainwellTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB25 - RB53 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB64 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 24% |
RB41 | 6.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB42 at the median, RB25 - RB53 in the middle half, and RB14 - RB64 in the middle 80%. |
| 42 | RB | Tyler AllgeierARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB26 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB65 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 23% |
RB42 | 6.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB26 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB65 in the middle 80%. |
| 43 | RB | MarShawn LloydGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB26 - RB54 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB64 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 23% |
RB43 | 6.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 77%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB43 at the median, RB26 - RB54 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB64 in the middle 80%. |
| 44 | RB | Kaelon BlackSFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB46 at the median, RB28 - RB60 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB74 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 21% |
RB44 | 6.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB46 at the median, RB28 - RB60 in the middle half, and RB15 - RB74 in the middle 80%. |
| 45 | RB | Jonah ColemanDENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB49 at the median, RB30 - RB65 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB80 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 19% |
RB45 | 5.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB49 at the median, RB30 - RB65 in the middle half, and RB17 - RB80 in the middle 80%. |
| 46 | RB | Emanuel WilsonSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB30 - RB61 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB72 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 18% |
RB46 | 5.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB30 - RB61 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB72 in the middle 80%. |
| 47 | RB | Brian RobinsonATLQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB31 - RB62 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB74 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 17% |
RB47 | 5.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB48 at the median, RB31 - RB62 in the middle half, and RB19 - RB74 in the middle 80%. |
| 48 | RB | Emmett JohnsonKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB49 at the median, RB35 - RB60 in the middle half, and RB20 - RB71 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 15% |
RB48 | 5.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB49 at the median, RB35 - RB60 in the middle half, and RB20 - RB71 in the middle 80%. |
| 49 | RB | Tank BigsbyPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB53 at the median, RB36 - RB66 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB79 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 14% |
RB49 | 4.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB53 at the median, RB36 - RB66 in the middle half, and RB21 - RB79 in the middle 80%. |
| 50 | RB | Braelon AllenNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB55 at the median, RB39 - RB68 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB80 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 12% |
RB50 | 4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB55 at the median, RB39 - RB68 in the middle half, and RB22 - RB80 in the middle 80%. |
| 51 | RB | Chris BrooksGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB54 at the median, RB40 - RB65 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB76 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 12% |
RB51 | 4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB54 at the median, RB40 - RB65 in the middle half, and RB23 - RB76 in the middle 80%. |
| 52 | RB | Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB56 at the median, RB42 - RB68 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB79 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 10% |
RB52 | 4.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB56 at the median, RB42 - RB68 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB79 in the middle 80%. |
| 53 | RB | Justice HillBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB56 at the median, RB42 - RB69 in the middle half, and RB25 - RB81 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 10% |
RB53 | 4.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB56 at the median, RB42 - RB69 in the middle half, and RB25 - RB81 in the middle 80%. |
| 54 | RB | Najee HarrisNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB42 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 11% |
RB54 | 4.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB59 at the median, RB42 - RB74 in the middle half, and RB24 - RB88 in the middle 80%. |
| 55 | RB | Devin SingletaryNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB60 at the median, RB46 - RB73 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB85 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 8% |
RB55 | 3.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB60 at the median, RB46 - RB73 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB85 in the middle 80%. |
| 56 | RB | Samaje PerineCINQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB61 at the median, RB46 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB90 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 8% |
RB56 | 3.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB61 at the median, RB46 - RB77 in the middle half, and RB26 - RB90 in the middle 80%. |
| 57 | RB | Kaleb JohnsonGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB60 at the median, RB47 - RB73 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB84 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 8% |
RB57 | 3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB60 at the median, RB47 - RB73 in the middle half, and RB27 - RB84 in the middle 80%. |
| 58 | RB | Keaton MitchellLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB48 - RB75 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 7% |
RB58 | 3.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB62 at the median, RB48 - RB75 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB88 in the middle 80%. |
| 59 | RB | Ty JohnsonBUFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB50 - RB90 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 8% |
RB59 | 3.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB70 at the median, RB50 - RB90 in the middle half, and RB28 - RB105 in the middle 80%. |
| 60 | RB | Mike Washington Jr.LV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB66 at the median, RB52 - RB80 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB60 | 3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB66 at the median, RB52 - RB80 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB92 in the middle 80%. |
| 61 | RB | George HolaniSEAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB69 at the median, RB53 - RB85 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB61 | 3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB69 at the median, RB53 - RB85 in the middle half, and RB31 - RB99 in the middle 80%. |
| 62 | RB | Ameer AbdullahJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB68 at the median, RB54 - RB82 in the middle half, and RB32 - RB94 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB62 | 2.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB68 at the median, RB54 - RB82 in the middle half, and RB32 - RB94 in the middle 80%. |
| 63 | RB | Raheim SandersCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB69 at the median, RB55 - RB83 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB63 | 2.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB69 at the median, RB55 - RB83 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB95 in the middle 80%. |
| 64 | RB | DJ GiddensINDQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB58 - RB98 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 5% |
RB64 | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 95%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB79 at the median, RB58 - RB98 in the middle half, and RB33 - RB112 in the middle 80%. |
| 65 | RB | Will ShipleyPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB73 at the median, RB59 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB65 | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB73 at the median, RB59 - RB87 in the middle half, and RB35 - RB98 in the middle 80%. |
| 66 | RB | AJ DillonCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB72 at the median, RB58 - RB85 in the middle half, and RB37 - RB97 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB66 | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB72 at the median, RB58 - RB85 in the middle half, and RB37 - RB97 in the middle 80%. |
| 67 | RB | Kaytron AllenWASQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB58 - RB90 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB67 | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB58 - RB90 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB104 in the middle 80%. |
| 68 | RB | Kyle JuszczykSFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB77 at the median, RB57 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB34 - RB107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 4% |
RB68 | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 96%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB77 at the median, RB57 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB34 - RB107 in the middle 80%. |
| 69 | RB | Sione VakiDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB59 - RB88 in the middle half, and RB38 - RB100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB69 | 2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB59 - RB88 in the middle half, and RB38 - RB100 in the middle 80%. |
| 70 | RB | Emari DemercadoDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB75 at the median, RB60 - RB89 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
RB70 | 2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB75 at the median, RB60 - RB89 in the middle half, and RB36 - RB101 in the middle 80%. |
| 71 | RB | Patrick RicardNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB78 at the median, RB60 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB38 - RB104 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB71 | 2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB78 at the median, RB60 - RB93 in the middle half, and RB38 - RB104 in the middle 80%. |
| 72 | RB | CJ DonaldsonNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB60 - RB88 in the middle half, and RB39 - RB100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 3% |
RB72 | 2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB74 at the median, RB60 - RB88 in the middle half, and RB39 - RB100 in the middle 80%. |
| 73 | RB | Ray DavisBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB76 at the median, RB61 - RB89 in the middle half, and RB38 - RB100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
RB73 | 2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 3%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB76 at the median, RB61 - RB89 in the middle half, and RB38 - RB100 in the middle 80%. |
| 74 | RB | Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYGQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB64 - RB98 in the middle half, and RB40 - RB109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
RB74 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB64 - RB98 in the middle half, and RB40 - RB109 in the middle 80%. |
| 75 | RB | Jordan JamesSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB66 - RB97 in the middle half, and RB43 - RB109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB75 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB82 at the median, RB66 - RB97 in the middle half, and RB43 - RB109 in the middle 80%. |
| 76 | RB | Kimani VidalLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB64 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB45 - RB107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB76 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB81 at the median, RB64 - RB96 in the middle half, and RB45 - RB107 in the middle 80%. |
| 77 | RB | Kendre MillerNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB67 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB40 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 2% |
RB77 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB67 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB40 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 78 | RB | Amar JohnsonLAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB67 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB47 - RB112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB78 | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB67 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB47 - RB112 in the middle 80%. |
| 79 | RB | Tyler GoodsonDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB65 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB46 - RB112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB79 | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB65 - RB101 in the middle half, and RB46 - RB112 in the middle 80%. |
| 80 | RB | Michael CarterTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB69 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB47 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB80 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB69 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB47 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 81 | RB | Pierre StrongGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB69 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB81 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB69 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 82 | RB | Phil MafahNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB70 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB82 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB70 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 83 | RB | Kene NwangwuNYJQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB69 - RB107 in the middle half, and RB43 - RB117 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 3% |
RB83 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 97%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB69 - RB107 in the middle half, and RB43 - RB117 in the middle 80%. |
| 84 | RB | DeeJay DallasMINQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB69 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB111 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB84 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB86 at the median, RB69 - RB100 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB111 in the middle 80%. |
| 85 | RB | Brashard SmithKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB67 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB85 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB67 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB110 in the middle 80%. |
| 86 | RB | Jaleel McLaughlinCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB67 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB110 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB86 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB84 at the median, RB67 - RB99 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB110 in the middle 80%. |
| 87 | RB | Eric GrayCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB115 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB87 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB115 in the middle 80%. |
| 88 | RB | Dare OgunbowaleLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB70 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB88 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB70 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 89 | RB | Nicholas SingletonTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB72 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB89 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB72 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB112 in the middle 80%. |
| 90 | RB | Lew Nichols IIIPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB70 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB51 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB90 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB70 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB51 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 91 | RB | Salvon AhmedCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB70 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB91 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB70 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB48 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 92 | RB | Devin NealNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB92 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 93 | RB | Jarquez HunterMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB70 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB93 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 2%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB70 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 94 | RB | Carlos WashingtonMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB70 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB94 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB70 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB50 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 95 | RB | Jonathan WardBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB69 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 2% |
RB95 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 98%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB69 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB49 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 96 | RB | Frank Gore Jr.BUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB72 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB96 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB88 at the median, RB72 - RB102 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB112 in the middle 80%. |
| 97 | RB | Jacardia WrightSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB97 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB71 - RB104 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 98 | RB | Travis HomerPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB73 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB98 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB89 at the median, RB73 - RB103 in the middle half, and RB54 - RB112 in the middle 80%. |
| 99 | RB | Jaylen WrightMIAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB74 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB55 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB99 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB91 at the median, RB74 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB55 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 100 | RB | Roschon JohnsonCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB92 at the median, RB75 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB57 - RB114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB100 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB92 at the median, RB75 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB57 - RB114 in the middle 80%. |
| 101 | RB | Eli HeidenreichPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB79 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB64 - RB113 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB101 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB79 - RB105 in the middle half, and RB64 - RB113 in the middle 80%. |
| 102 | RB | Bam KnightARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB78 - RB107 in the middle half, and RB61 - RB115 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB102 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB78 - RB107 in the middle half, and RB61 - RB115 in the middle 80%. |
| 103 | RB | Julius ChestnutTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB78 - RB106 in the middle half, and RB59 - RB115 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 0%Top 24: 1% |
RB103 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 0%, 13th to 24th 1%, and outside the top 24 99%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB94 at the median, RB78 - RB106 in the middle half, and RB59 - RB115 in the middle 80%. |
Simulated finishes
This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.
Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.
Week 3 RB outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.
Projected rank
Median finish
13612243660
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RB1 Jahmyr GibbsRB9Jahmyr Gibbs is ranked RB1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB9 at the median, RB4 - RB19 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB30 in the middle 80%.
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RB10Kenneth Walker III is ranked RB2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB19 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB30 in the middle 80%.
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RB3 Jonathan TaylorRB10Jonathan Taylor is ranked RB3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB10 at the median, RB4 - RB22 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB35 in the middle 80%.
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RB4 Derrick HenryRB12Derrick Henry is ranked RB4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB12 at the median, RB5 - RB24 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB37 in the middle 80%.
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RB5 Bijan RobinsonRB11Bijan Robinson is ranked RB5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB11 at the median, RB5 - RB21 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB33 in the middle 80%.
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RB6 James CookRB13James Cook is ranked RB6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB13 at the median, RB6 - RB25 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB36 in the middle 80%.
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RB14Christian McCaffrey is ranked RB7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB2 - RB40 in the middle 80%.
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RB8 Ashton JeantyRB14Ashton Jeanty is ranked RB8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB14 at the median, RB6 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
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RB9 De'Von AchaneRB15De'Von Achane is ranked RB9 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB15 at the median, RB7 - RB26 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB37 in the middle 80%.
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RB10 Chase BrownRB16Chase Brown is ranked RB10 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB16 at the median, RB7 - RB29 in the middle half, and RB3 - RB39 in the middle 80%.
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RB11 Breece HallRB18Breece Hall is ranked RB11 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB18 at the median, RB9 - RB32 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB42 in the middle 80%.
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RB12 D'Andre SwiftRB21D'Andre Swift is ranked RB12 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB9 - RB38 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
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RB13 Bucky IrvingRB21Bucky Irving is ranked RB13 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB10 - RB35 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB45 in the middle 80%.
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RB14 Saquon BarkleyRB22Saquon Barkley is ranked RB14 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB22 at the median, RB10 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
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RB15 Omarion HamptonRB21Omarion Hampton is ranked RB15 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB11 - RB36 in the middle half, and RB5 - RB46 in the middle 80%.
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RB16 Javonte WilliamsRB21Javonte Williams is ranked RB16 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB21 at the median, RB10 - RB37 in the middle half, and RB4 - RB47 in the middle 80%.
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RB17 Cam SkatteboRB23Cam Skattebo is ranked RB17 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB23 at the median, RB11 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
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RB18 Kyren WilliamsRB24Kyren Williams is ranked RB18 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB12 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB48 in the middle 80%.
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RB19 Jeremiyah LoveRB24Jeremiyah Love is ranked RB19 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB24 at the median, RB13 - RB39 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB50 in the middle 80%.
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RB20 Chuba HubbardRB27Chuba Hubbard is ranked RB20 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB13 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
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RB21 Travis EtienneRB28Travis Etienne is ranked RB21 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB14 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
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RB22 David MontgomeryRB26David Montgomery is ranked RB22 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB14 - RB42 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
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RB23 Jaylen WarrenRB28Jaylen Warren is ranked RB23 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB28 at the median, RB14 - RB44 in the middle half, and RB6 - RB55 in the middle 80%.
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RB24 Bhayshul TutenRB26Bhayshul Tuten is ranked RB24 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB26 at the median, RB14 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB49 in the middle 80%.
Show RB25 - RB36
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RB25 Quinshon JudkinsRB27Quinshon Judkins is ranked RB25 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB27 at the median, RB14 - RB41 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB51 in the middle 80%.
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RB26 Aaron JonesRB30Aaron Jones is ranked RB26 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB15 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB58 in the middle 80%.
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RB27 TreVeyon HendersonRB32TreVeyon Henderson is ranked RB27 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB32 at the median, RB16 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB7 - RB62 in the middle 80%.
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RB28 Jadarian PriceRB31Jadarian Price is ranked RB28 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB31 at the median, RB16 - RB46 in the middle half, and RB8 - RB58 in the middle 80%.
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RB29 Rhamondre StevensonRB30Rhamondre Stevenson is ranked RB29 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB30 at the median, RB16 - RB43 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB52 in the middle 80%.
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RB30 Tony PollardRB35Tony Pollard is ranked RB30 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB35 at the median, RB19 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB9 - RB60 in the middle 80%.
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RB31 Kyle MonangaiRB37Kyle Monangai is ranked RB31 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB20 - RB50 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB63 in the middle 80%.
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RB37Jacory Croskey-Merritt is ranked RB32 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB20 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB60 in the middle 80%.
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RB33 Rachaad WhiteRB36Rachaad White is ranked RB33 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB36 at the median, RB21 - RB48 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB58 in the middle 80%.
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RB34 Alvin KamaraRB40Alvin Kamara is ranked RB34 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB40 at the median, RB21 - RB55 in the middle half, and RB10 - RB69 in the middle 80%.
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RB35 Blake CorumRB37Blake Corum is ranked RB35 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB37 at the median, RB21 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB11 - RB60 in the middle 80%.
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RB36 Woody MarksRB38Woody Marks is ranked RB36 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes RB38 at the median, RB22 - RB49 in the middle half, and RB12 - RB60 in the middle 80%.
Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.
The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.
How these are made
This board was built from 2026 usage for 67% of the board, draft position for 100%, an outside projection for 59%, sportsbook props for 11%, an official status for 81%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Half PPR, 1QB.
Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured September 24, 2026 22:48 UTC. Model rankings-v1.4.0, board captured 2026-09-24.
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.