GB · Bye 11
Kaleb Johnson
LMD RB65 for Week 3 · 3.0 projected Half PPR points
In season
Week 3 fantasy ranking
We project 3.0 points this week, RB65. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 5% of simulated weeks.
Week 3
RB65
223rd by projected points
Projected
3.0
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
1%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 5% at RB
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at RB in Week 2
- Draft / market prior
- Slight negative-0.43 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-0.64 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Positive+1.08 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
Packers Snap Counts, Week 1: Kaleb Johnson absent on offense
Yahoo Sports ·
-
The replacements: How Jonnu Smith, Kaleb Johnson and Mark Redman are getting up to speed with the Packers’ offense
channel3000.com ·
-
Running back Kaleb Johnson stands for a photo during the Iowa football media day in 2024.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
A Closer Look At Green Bay Packers New RB Kaleb Johnson
yardbarker.com ·
-
NFC Notes: Jared Goff, MarShawn Lloyd, Kaleb Johnson, Bears, Lions, Packers
yardbarker.com ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Kaleb Johnson by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | — | — | 0.0 | — |
| Wk 2 | — | — | 3.2 | — |
| Wk 3 | vs ATL | 3.0 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD does not currently assign Kaleb Johnson a differentiated dynasty rank. Age 23.
The model prices him at replacement level for the next three seasons and does not separate him from the several hundred players it prices the same way, so it assigns no rank rather than an invented one.
- Last season 8.3 pts 0.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 59% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 1 season Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 3.0 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 1% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.12
pick 207.8 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.12
half of simulations take him by pick 208
Draft range
15.10 - 15.14
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 857 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.12 in 97% of simulations
Pick 208 overall in a 14-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.11 and 15.13.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.10 | >99% |
| 15.11 | 98% |
| 15.12 | 97% |
| 15.13 | 95% |
| 15.14 | 93% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.05 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 0% | 0 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | <1% | 2 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | <1% | 12 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | <1% | 42 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 1% | 103 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 161 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 178 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.13 | 2% | 183 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.14 | 2% | 172 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 857 simulations in which Kaleb Johnson was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Keaton Mitchell RB · LAC 4%
- Jalen McMillan WR · TB 3%
- Tank Dell WR · HOU 3%
- Kayshon Boutte WR · HOU 3%
Usually taken just after
- Ja'Kobi Lane WR · BAL 3%
- Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE 3%
- Pat Bryant WR · DEN 2%
- Chimere Dike WR · TEN 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kaleb Johnson was selected in 857 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.