WAS · Bye 7 · Rookie
Kaytron Allen
LMD RB80 for Week 3 · 2.3 projected Half PPR points
In season
Week 3 fantasy ranking
We project 2.3 points this week, RB80. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 2% of simulated weeks. Up 10 since Week 2.
Week 3
RB80
274th by projected points
Projected
2.3
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
0%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 2% at RB
Movement
↑ 10
RB90 in Week 2, RB80 now
- Draft / market prior
- Neutral+0.02 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Slight positive+0.11 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.21 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 1 completed game Kaytron Allen has averaged +0.3 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | — | — | 1.6 | — |
| Wk 2 | @ DAL | 2.1 | 2.4 | +0.3 |
| Wk 3 | vs SEA | 2.3 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Kaytron Allen #229 in 1QB and #231 in Superflex, RB61 at his position, priced from his draft slot as a rookie. Age 23.
1QB
#229
RB61 · tier 51 · of 297 · rookie 38 of 52
Superflex
#231
RB61 · tier 44 · of 303 · rookie 38 of 52
- Draft capital Round 6, pick 187 (2026) A rookie is priced from where he was drafted, on a prior fitted over prior classes.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Dynasty rankings Dynasty RB rankings Dynasty rookie rankings
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.05
pick 200.7 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.05
half of simulations take him by pick 201
Draft range
14.09 - 15.13
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 3,908 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.05 in 83% of simulations
Pick 201 overall in a 14-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.01 and 15.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.03 | 88% |
| 15.04 | 85% |
| 15.05 | 83% |
| 15.06 | 80% |
| 15.07 | 78% |
| 15.08 | 76% |
| 15.09 | 74% |
| 15.10 | 72% |
| 15.11 | 69% |
| 15.12 | 67% |
| 15.13 | 65% |
| 15.14 | 63% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 14.09 | <1% | 63 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.10 | <1% | 63 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.11 | <1% | 64 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.12 | <1% | 73 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.13 | <1% | 89 of 10000 simulations |
| 14.14 | <1% | 77 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.01 | 2% | 230 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.02 | 2% | 219 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.03 | 2% | 238 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 2% | 243 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 234 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 215 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 197 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 244 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 226 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 212 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 239 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 204 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.13 | 2% | 194 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 3908 simulations in which Kaytron Allen was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Wil Lutz K · DEN 3%
- San Francisco 49ers DST · SF 3%
- Eddy Pineiro K · SF 3%
- Will Reichard K · MIN 3%
Usually taken just after
- Antonio Williams WR · WAS 3%
- Ja'Kobi Lane WR · BAL 3%
- Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ 2%
- Jerry Jeudy WR · CLE 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 14-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kaytron Allen was selected in 3908 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
We license no ADP feed of our own, so a reach or a fall on this page is measured against a price inferred from our own rankings -- a statement about our board, not about the market.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- rank
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.