NFL · 2026 Week 3
2026 Week 3 Half PPR TE Rankings
Final pre-kickoff board · published September 24, 2026, 22:49 UTC · first kickoff September 25, 2026, 00:15 UTC
Half PPR, 1QB · 90 players projected · updated September 24, 2026
See how these rankings performed
Sportsbook prices reached 45 of 145 fantasy-relevant players (31%), so the market half of this board is thinner than a full week's.
How these rankings work
How these rankings are built
We start with preseason player projections and draft position — where players were being selected in fantasy drafts entering the season.
We then update those expectations for Week 3 using recent usage, availability and market signals. Market signals are current sportsbook and prediction-market prices that can reflect changing expectations for a player's workload, performance, or availability.
We then simulate the week 4,000 times and rank players by the projected fantasy points those simulations produce.
This board is priced in Half PPR. The order and the finish percentages below are specific to it: another format is a separate simulation of the same projections, not this table with new points.
What the percentages mean
For every simulation, we also record where each player finishes at his position.
- Top 3
- how often he finishes among the top three at his position
- Top 12
- how often he finishes in the top 12
- Top 24
- how often he finishes in the top 24
A WR with a 58% Top 12 rate finished as a top-12 WR in 58% of the simulated weeks.
How often a strong start lasts
Since 1999, 54% of TEs inside the top 12 through Week 2 finished the season inside the top 12. Measured over 325 TE-seasons from 1999-2025, in the same scoring rule as this board.
What stood out in Week 3
90 TEs ranked for Week 3. Trey McBride leads at 12.8 projected points.
Tier break
2.0 projected points separate TE1 Trey McBride from TE2 Dalton Schultz.
Biggest differences from the draft market
Ahead
- Dalton SchultzTE2Our projection is higher than the outside forecastTop 3: 18% · Top 12: 48% · Top 24: 72% +17 vs. TE19
- Noah FantTE41Our projection is higher than the outside forecast +17 vs. TE58
- Michael MayerTE24Our projection is higher than the outside forecastTop 3: 4% · Top 12: 20% · Top 24: 39% +12 vs. TE36
Behind
- Colston LovelandTE18Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 6% · Top 12: 25% · Top 24: 44% -15 vs. TE3
- Kyle PittsTE22Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 4% · Top 12: 21% · Top 24: 41% -13 vs. TE9
- AJ BarnerTE35Our projection is lower than the outside forecastTop 3: 2% · Top 12: 13% · Top 24: 26% -12 vs. TE23
| # | Pos | Player | Pos rank | Proj | Outcome profile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TE | Trey McBrideARI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 26% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 22%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE10 at the median, TE3 - TE23 in the middle half, and TE1 - TE33 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 26%Top 12: 56%Top 24: 78% |
TE1 | 12.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 26% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 22%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE10 at the median, TE3 - TE23 in the middle half, and TE1 - TE33 in the middle 80%. |
| 2 | TE | Dalton SchultzHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 18% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 28%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE14 at the median, TE5 - TE26 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE36 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 18%Top 12: 48%Top 24: 72% |
TE2 | 10.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 18% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 28%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE14 at the median, TE5 - TE26 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE36 in the middle 80%. |
| 3 | TE | Brock BowersLVQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 39%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE18 at the median, TE5 - TE33 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE50 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 19%Top 12: 42%Top 24: 61% |
TE3 | 10.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 19% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 39%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE18 at the median, TE5 - TE33 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE50 in the middle 80%. |
| 4 | TE | Travis KelceKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 17% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 26%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE13 at the median, TE5 - TE25 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE35 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 17%Top 12: 48%Top 24: 74% |
TE4 | 10.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 17% of the time, 4th to 12th 31%, 13th to 24th 26%, and outside the top 24 26%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE13 at the median, TE5 - TE25 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE35 in the middle 80%. |
| 5 | TE | Dalton KincaidBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 17% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE15 at the median, TE5 - TE27 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE37 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 17%Top 12: 46%Top 24: 70% |
TE5 | 10.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 17% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 24%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE15 at the median, TE5 - TE27 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE37 in the middle 80%. |
| 6 | TE | Sam LaPortaDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE16 at the median, TE6 - TE27 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE37 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 15%Top 12: 44%Top 24: 70% |
TE6 | 10.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 15% of the time, 4th to 12th 29%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 30%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE16 at the median, TE6 - TE27 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE37 in the middle 80%. |
| 7 | TE | Isaiah LikelyNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 34%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE16 at the median, TE6 - TE29 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE41 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 14%Top 12: 44%Top 24: 66% |
TE7 | 9.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 30%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 34%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE16 at the median, TE6 - TE29 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE41 in the middle 80%. |
| 8 | TE | Tyler WarrenIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 41%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE7 - TE32 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE45 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 14%Top 12: 39%Top 24: 59% |
TE8 | 9.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 14% of the time, 4th to 12th 26%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 41%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE7 - TE32 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE45 in the middle 80%. |
| 9 | TE | George KittleSFQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 43%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE21 at the median, TE7 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE48 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 13%Top 12: 37%Top 24: 57% |
TE9 | 8.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 13% of the time, 4th to 12th 24%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 43%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE21 at the median, TE7 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE48 in the middle 80%. |
| 10 | TE | Mark AndrewsBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE22 at the median, TE9 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE47 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 33%Top 24: 55% |
TE10 | 7.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 23%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 45%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE22 at the median, TE9 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE47 in the middle 80%. |
| 11 | TE | Juwan JohnsonNOQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 50%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE10 - TE38 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE55 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 10%Top 12: 31%Top 24: 50% |
TE11 | 7.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 10% of the time, 4th to 12th 21%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 50%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE10 - TE38 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE55 in the middle 80%. |
| 12 | TE | Tucker KraftGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE11 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE45 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 29%Top 24: 53% |
TE12 | 7.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 25%, and outside the top 24 47%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE11 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE45 in the middle 80%. |
| 13 | TE | Terrance FergusonLARQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE11 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE57 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 8%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 46% |
TE13 | 7.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 8% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 54%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE11 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE57 in the middle 80%. |
| 14 | TE | Harold Fannin Jr.CLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 50%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE11 - TE36 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE50 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 28%Top 24: 50% |
TE14 | 7.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 22%, and outside the top 24 50%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE11 - TE36 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE50 in the middle 80%. |
| 15 | TE | Hunter HenryNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 50%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE10 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE47 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 29%Top 24: 50% |
TE15 | 7.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 21%, and outside the top 24 50%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE10 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE47 in the middle 80%. |
| 16 | TE | T.J. HockensonMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE11 - TE39 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 27%Top 24: 47% |
TE16 | 7.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 20%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 53%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE11 - TE39 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE52 in the middle 80%. |
| 17 | TE | Pat FreiermuthPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 52%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE25 at the median, TE10 - TE37 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE51 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 7%Top 12: 29%Top 24: 48% |
TE17 | 6.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 7% of the time, 4th to 12th 22%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 52%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE25 at the median, TE10 - TE37 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE51 in the middle 80%. |
| 18 | TE | Colston LovelandCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE13 - TE40 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE55 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 6%Top 12: 25%Top 24: 44% |
TE18 | 6.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 6% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 56%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE13 - TE40 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE55 in the middle 80%. |
| 19 | TE | Jake FergusonDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE13 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE56 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 24%Top 24: 42% |
TE19 | 6.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 19%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 58%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE13 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE56 in the middle 80%. |
| 20 | TE | Kenyon SadiqNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE13 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE57 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 41% |
TE20 | 6.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE13 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE57 in the middle 80%. |
| 21 | TE | Stone SmarttNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE31 at the median, TE14 - TE49 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE68 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 5%Top 12: 23%Top 24: 39% |
TE21 | 6.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 5% of the time, 4th to 12th 18%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE31 at the median, TE14 - TE49 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE68 in the middle 80%. |
| 22 | TE | Kyle PittsATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE15 - TE39 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE52 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 21%Top 24: 41% |
TE22 | 6.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 17%, 13th to 24th 20%, and outside the top 24 59%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE15 - TE39 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE52 in the middle 80%. |
| 23 | TE | Cade OttonTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 63%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE30 at the median, TE16 - TE45 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE60 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 38% |
TE23 | 5.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 18%, and outside the top 24 63%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE30 at the median, TE16 - TE45 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE60 in the middle 80%. |
| 24 | TE | Michael MayerLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE30 at the median, TE16 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE58 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 20%Top 24: 39% |
TE24 | 5.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 16%, 13th to 24th 19%, and outside the top 24 61%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE30 at the median, TE16 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE58 in the middle 80%. |
| 25 | TE | Mike GesickiCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE33 at the median, TE18 - TE50 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE66 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 4%Top 12: 19%Top 24: 35% |
TE25 | 5.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 4% of the time, 4th to 12th 15%, 13th to 24th 16%, and outside the top 24 65%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE33 at the median, TE18 - TE50 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE66 in the middle 80%. |
| 26 | TE | Gunnar HelmTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE34 at the median, TE20 - TE49 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE65 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 16%Top 24: 32% |
TE26 | 5.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 13%, 13th to 24th 17%, and outside the top 24 68%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE34 at the median, TE20 - TE49 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE65 in the middle 80%. |
| 27 | TE | Tommy TrembleCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE22 - TE53 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE69 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 28% |
TE27 | 4.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 12%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 72%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE22 - TE53 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE69 in the middle 80%. |
| 28 | TE | Brenton StrangeJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE36 at the median, TE23 - TE51 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE66 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 27% |
TE28 | 4.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 14%, and outside the top 24 73%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE36 at the median, TE23 - TE51 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE66 in the middle 80%. |
| 29 | TE | Chig OkonkwoWASQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE24 - TE61 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE83 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 3%Top 12: 14%Top 24: 26% |
TE29 | 4.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 3% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE24 - TE61 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE83 in the middle 80%. |
| 30 | TE | Oronde Gadsden IILAC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE39 at the median, TE25 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE74 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 25% |
TE30 | 4.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE39 at the median, TE25 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE74 in the middle 80%. |
| 31 | TE | Darren WallerCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE24 - TE57 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE75 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 25% |
TE31 | 4.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 75%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE24 - TE57 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE75 in the middle 80%. |
| 32 | TE | Greg DulcichMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE26 - TE57 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE73 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 24% |
TE32 | 4.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE26 - TE57 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE73 in the middle 80%. |
| 33 | TE | Evan EngramDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE25 - TE57 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE74 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 24% |
TE33 | 4.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE25 - TE57 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE74 in the middle 80%. |
| 34 | TE | Chris MyarickLV Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE44 at the median, TE25 - TE66 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 12%Top 24: 24% |
TE34 | 4.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 10%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 76%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE44 at the median, TE25 - TE66 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE88 in the middle 80%. |
| 35 | TE | AJ BarnerSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE44 at the median, TE24 - TE62 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE80 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 13%Top 24: 26% |
TE35 | 4.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 11%, 13th to 24th 13%, and outside the top 24 74%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE44 at the median, TE24 - TE62 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE80 in the middle 80%. |
| 36 | TE | Luke SchoonmakerDAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE44 at the median, TE27 - TE63 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE83 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 11%Top 24: 22% |
TE36 | 3.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 78%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE44 at the median, TE27 - TE63 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE83 in the middle 80%. |
| 37 | TE | Elijah ArroyoSEA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE45 at the median, TE28 - TE64 in the middle half, and TE13 - TE84 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 21% |
TE37 | 3.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE45 at the median, TE28 - TE64 in the middle half, and TE13 - TE84 in the middle 80%. |
| 38 | TE | Mark RedmanGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE50 at the median, TE29 - TE72 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 2%Top 12: 10%Top 24: 21% |
TE38 | 3.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 2% of the time, 4th to 12th 9%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 79%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE50 at the median, TE29 - TE72 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE92 in the middle 80%. |
| 39 | TE | Jake BriningstoolKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE48 at the median, TE30 - TE68 in the middle half, and TE13 - TE88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 20% |
TE39 | 3.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 80%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE48 at the median, TE30 - TE68 in the middle half, and TE13 - TE88 in the middle 80%. |
| 40 | TE | Josiah DeguaraPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE51 at the median, TE31 - TE74 in the middle half, and TE13 - TE95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 9%Top 24: 19% |
TE40 | 3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 8%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE51 at the median, TE31 - TE74 in the middle half, and TE13 - TE95 in the middle 80%. |
| 41 | TE | Noah FantNO Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE48 at the median, TE30 - TE67 in the middle half, and TE14 - TE84 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 19% |
TE41 | 3.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE48 at the median, TE30 - TE67 in the middle half, and TE14 - TE84 in the middle 80%. |
| 42 | TE | Dawson KnoxBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE50 at the median, TE32 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE14 - TE88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 19% |
TE42 | 3.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 11%, and outside the top 24 81%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE50 at the median, TE32 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE14 - TE88 in the middle 80%. |
| 43 | TE | Darnell WashingtonPIT Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE50 at the median, TE33 - TE68 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE85 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 17% |
TE43 | 3.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE50 at the median, TE33 - TE68 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE85 in the middle 80%. |
| 44 | TE | Noah GrayKC Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE51 at the median, TE32 - TE69 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 8%Top 24: 18% |
TE44 | 3.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 7%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 82%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE51 at the median, TE32 - TE69 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE87 in the middle 80%. |
| 45 | TE | Colby ParkinsonLARQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE33 - TE74 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE94 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 17% |
TE45 | 3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE33 - TE74 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE94 in the middle 80%. |
| 46 | TE | Josh OliverMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE51 at the median, TE34 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE87 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 16% |
TE46 | 3.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE51 at the median, TE34 - TE70 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE87 in the middle 80%. |
| 47 | TE | Stephen CarlsonCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE57 at the median, TE35 - TE80 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 16% |
TE47 | 3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE57 at the median, TE35 - TE80 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE99 in the middle 80%. |
| 48 | TE | Kylen GransonTEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE56 at the median, TE34 - TE78 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE100 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 16% |
TE48 | 3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE56 at the median, TE34 - TE78 in the middle half, and TE15 - TE100 in the middle 80%. |
| 49 | TE | Pharaoh BrownIND Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE56 at the median, TE35 - TE80 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE98 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 7%Top 24: 16% |
TE49 | 3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 6%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 84%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE56 at the median, TE35 - TE80 in the middle half, and TE16 - TE98 in the middle 80%. |
| 50 | TE | Cole KmetCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE35 - TE72 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE88 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 6%Top 24: 15% |
TE50 | 3.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 10%, and outside the top 24 85%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE53 at the median, TE35 - TE72 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE88 in the middle 80%. |
| 51 | TE | Jonnu SmithGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE58 at the median, TE39 - TE78 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE95 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 14% |
TE51 | 2.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 9%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE58 at the median, TE39 - TE78 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE95 in the middle 80%. |
| 52 | TE | Brock WrightDET Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE57 at the median, TE39 - TE76 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE92 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 14% |
TE52 | 2.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 5%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 86%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE57 at the median, TE39 - TE76 in the middle half, and TE18 - TE92 in the middle 80%. |
| 53 | TE | Drew SampleCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE59 at the median, TE39 - TE80 in the middle half, and TE20 - TE99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 13% |
TE53 | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE59 at the median, TE39 - TE80 in the middle half, and TE20 - TE99 in the middle 80%. |
| 54 | TE | Blake WhiteheartCLE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE59 at the median, TE40 - TE79 in the middle half, and TE19 - TE96 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 13% |
TE54 | 2.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 87%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE59 at the median, TE40 - TE79 in the middle half, and TE19 - TE96 in the middle 80%. |
| 55 | TE | Austin HooperATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE62 at the median, TE42 - TE84 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 12% |
TE55 | 2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE62 at the median, TE42 - TE84 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE101 in the middle 80%. |
| 56 | TE | Johnny MundtPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE61 at the median, TE40 - TE82 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE101 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 12% |
TE56 | 2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE61 at the median, TE40 - TE82 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE101 in the middle 80%. |
| 57 | TE | Nate AdkinsDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE73 at the median, TE48 - TE93 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 5%Top 24: 17% |
TE57 | 2.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 12%, and outside the top 24 83%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE73 at the median, TE48 - TE93 in the middle half, and TE17 - TE108 in the middle 80%. |
| 58 | TE | Theo JohnsonNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE63 at the median, TE44 - TE82 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE99 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 11% |
TE58 | 2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE63 at the median, TE44 - TE82 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE99 in the middle 80%. |
| 59 | TE | Adam TrautmanDEN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE63 at the median, TE42 - TE85 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE103 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 12% |
TE59 | 2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE63 at the median, TE42 - TE85 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE103 in the middle 80%. |
| 60 | TE | Tanner ArkinNE Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE66 at the median, TE42 - TE89 in the middle half, and TE20 - TE107 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 1%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 12% |
TE60 | 2.4 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 1% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 8%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE66 at the median, TE42 - TE89 in the middle half, and TE20 - TE107 in the middle 80%. |
| 61 | TE | Drake DabneyGB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE68 at the median, TE45 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 12% |
TE61 | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 88%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE68 at the median, TE45 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE109 in the middle 80%. |
| 62 | TE | Bauer SharpTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE66 at the median, TE44 - TE88 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 11% |
TE62 | 2.3 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 4%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE66 at the median, TE44 - TE88 in the middle half, and TE21 - TE105 in the middle 80%. |
| 63 | TE | Erick AllCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE68 at the median, TE46 - TE89 in the middle half, and TE23 - TE106 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 4%Top 24: 11% |
TE63 | 2.2 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 89%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE68 at the median, TE46 - TE89 in the middle half, and TE23 - TE106 in the middle 80%. |
| 64 | TE | Charlie WoernerATL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE70 at the median, TE49 - TE92 in the middle half, and TE26 - TE109 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10% |
TE64 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE70 at the median, TE49 - TE92 in the middle half, and TE26 - TE109 in the middle 80%. |
| 65 | TE | Jackson HawesBUF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE73 at the median, TE47 - TE96 in the middle half, and TE24 - TE113 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 10% |
TE65 | 2.1 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 3%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 90%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE73 at the median, TE47 - TE96 in the middle half, and TE24 - TE113 in the middle 80%. |
| 66 | TE | Jeremy RuckertNYJ Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE69 at the median, TE49 - TE89 in the middle half, and TE27 - TE106 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 9% |
TE66 | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 7%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE69 at the median, TE49 - TE89 in the middle half, and TE27 - TE106 in the middle 80%. |
| 67 | TE | Foster MoreauHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE69 at the median, TE49 - TE89 in the middle half, and TE29 - TE105 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% |
TE67 | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE69 at the median, TE49 - TE89 in the middle half, and TE29 - TE105 in the middle 80%. |
| 68 | TE | Mitchell EvansCAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE71 at the median, TE52 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE29 - TE106 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 3%Top 24: 9% |
TE68 | 2.0 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 91%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE71 at the median, TE52 - TE90 in the middle half, and TE29 - TE106 in the middle 80%. |
| 69 | TE | Durham SmytheBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE75 at the median, TE54 - TE94 in the middle half, and TE30 - TE108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 8% |
TE69 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE75 at the median, TE54 - TE94 in the middle half, and TE30 - TE108 in the middle 80%. |
| 70 | TE | Luke FarrellSF Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE74 at the median, TE53 - TE94 in the middle half, and TE30 - TE108 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 8% |
TE70 | 1.9 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE74 at the median, TE53 - TE94 in the middle half, and TE30 - TE108 in the middle 80%. |
| 71 | TE | John BatesWAS Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE76 at the median, TE54 - TE96 in the middle half, and TE31 - TE112 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 8% |
TE71 | 1.8 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE76 at the median, TE54 - TE96 in the middle half, and TE31 - TE112 in the middle 80%. |
| 72 | TE | Eli RaridonNEQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE80 at the median, TE56 - TE101 in the middle half, and TE34 - TE116 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% |
TE72 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE80 at the median, TE56 - TE101 in the middle half, and TE34 - TE116 in the middle 80%. |
| 73 | TE | Sam RoushCHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE80 at the median, TE58 - TE100 in the middle half, and TE35 - TE114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 8% |
TE73 | 1.7 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 92%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE80 at the median, TE58 - TE100 in the middle half, and TE35 - TE114 in the middle 80%. |
| 74 | TE | Thomas Fidone IINYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE87 at the median, TE63 - TE108 in the middle half, and TE37 - TE121 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% |
TE74 | 1.6 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE87 at the median, TE63 - TE108 in the middle half, and TE37 - TE121 in the middle 80%. |
| 75 | TE | Brevin JordanHOU Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE88 at the median, TE63 - TE109 in the middle half, and TE38 - TE120 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 7% |
TE75 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE88 at the median, TE63 - TE109 in the middle half, and TE38 - TE120 in the middle 80%. |
| 76 | TE | Cam GrandyMIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE88 at the median, TE63 - TE108 in the middle half, and TE36 - TE120 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 7% |
TE76 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE88 at the median, TE63 - TE108 in the middle half, and TE36 - TE120 in the middle 80%. |
| 77 | TE | Tanner HudsonCIN Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE85 at the median, TE62 - TE105 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE118 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 7% |
TE77 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 6%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE85 at the median, TE62 - TE105 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE118 in the middle 80%. |
| 78 | TE | Will KacmarekMIA Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE84 at the median, TE63 - TE103 in the middle half, and TE42 - TE114 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
TE78 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE84 at the median, TE63 - TE103 in the middle half, and TE42 - TE114 in the middle 80%. |
| 79 | TE | Seydou TraoreMIAQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE90 at the median, TE63 - TE112 in the middle half, and TE36 - TE124 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% |
TE79 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE90 at the median, TE63 - TE112 in the middle half, and TE36 - TE124 in the middle 80%. |
| 80 | TE | Payne DurhamTB Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE86 at the median, TE62 - TE107 in the middle half, and TE38 - TE120 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% |
TE80 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE86 at the median, TE62 - TE107 in the middle half, and TE38 - TE120 in the middle 80%. |
| 81 | TE | E.J. JenkinsPHI Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE89 at the median, TE64 - TE110 in the middle half, and TE41 - TE122 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
TE81 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE89 at the median, TE64 - TE110 in the middle half, and TE41 - TE122 in the middle 80%. |
| 82 | TE | Davis AllenLARQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE86 at the median, TE62 - TE106 in the middle half, and TE40 - TE118 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
TE82 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE86 at the median, TE62 - TE106 in the middle half, and TE40 - TE118 in the middle 80%. |
| 83 | TE | Josh WhyleGBQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE91 at the median, TE63 - TE113 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE124 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 6% |
TE83 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE91 at the median, TE63 - TE113 in the middle half, and TE39 - TE124 in the middle 80%. |
| 84 | TE | Tanner KoziolJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE87 at the median, TE63 - TE108 in the middle half, and TE36 - TE120 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 2%Top 24: 7% |
TE84 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 2%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE87 at the median, TE63 - TE108 in the middle half, and TE36 - TE120 in the middle 80%. |
| 85 | TE | Nate BoerkircherJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE88 at the median, TE65 - TE106 in the middle half, and TE41 - TE119 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
TE85 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE88 at the median, TE65 - TE106 in the middle half, and TE41 - TE119 in the middle 80%. |
| 86 | TE | Josh CuevasBAL Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE87 at the median, TE63 - TE107 in the middle half, and TE40 - TE120 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
TE86 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE87 at the median, TE63 - TE107 in the middle half, and TE40 - TE120 in the middle 80%. |
| 87 | TE | Tyler HigbeeLAR Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE86 at the median, TE63 - TE106 in the middle half, and TE38 - TE119 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
TE87 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE86 at the median, TE63 - TE106 in the middle half, and TE38 - TE119 in the middle 80%. |
| 88 | TE | Daniel BellingerTENQQuestionable Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE86 at the median, TE64 - TE106 in the middle half, and TE41 - TE119 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
TE88 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 4%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE86 at the median, TE64 - TE106 in the middle half, and TE41 - TE119 in the middle 80%. |
| 89 | TE | Chris ManhertzNYG Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE89 at the median, TE63 - TE109 in the middle half, and TE36 - TE121 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 6% |
TE89 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 94%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE89 at the median, TE63 - TE109 in the middle half, and TE36 - TE121 in the middle 80%. |
| 90 | TE | Quintin MorrisJAX Drivers show how expected points change when each signal is removed. Effects can overlap, so they do not add up to the final projection.
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?We don’t currently show matchup as a separate factor. We tested a standalone matchup adjustment built from historical defensive performance, and it did not improve predictions consistently out of sample.Matchup information is still reflected indirectly through our outside weekly projection and betting-market inputs — sportsbook odds and prediction markets — when available.We only show a separate factor when it adds reliable predictive value on its own. How to read
Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE86 at the median, TE65 - TE104 in the middle half, and TE42 - TE116 in the middle 80%.
Top 3: 0%Top 12: 1%Top 24: 7% |
TE90 | 1.5 | Across the simulated weeks at the position, he finishes in the top 3 0% of the time, 4th to 12th 1%, 13th to 24th 5%, and outside the top 24 93%. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE86 at the median, TE65 - TE104 in the middle half, and TE42 - TE116 in the middle 80%. |
Simulated finishes
This board is ranked by projected fantasy points. The map shows where those same players finished at their own position across the 4,000 simulated weeks the projections came from.
Box: the middle half of a player's simulated finishes. Line: his median. Thin bar: the middle 80%. Two players whose boxes overlap are two players this board does not separate.
Week 3 TE outcome map: the positional finish each player reaches across the 4,000 simulated weeks, as a median, a middle half and a middle 80%. The board itself is ranked by projected fantasy points.
Projected rank
Median finish
13612243660
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TE1 Trey McBrideTE10Trey McBride is ranked TE1 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE10 at the median, TE3 - TE23 in the middle half, and TE1 - TE33 in the middle 80%.
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TE2 Dalton SchultzTE14Dalton Schultz is ranked TE2 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE14 at the median, TE5 - TE26 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE36 in the middle 80%.
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TE3 Brock BowersTE18Brock Bowers is ranked TE3 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE18 at the median, TE5 - TE33 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE50 in the middle 80%.
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TE4 Travis KelceTE13Travis Kelce is ranked TE4 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE13 at the median, TE5 - TE25 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE35 in the middle 80%.
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TE5 Dalton KincaidTE15Dalton Kincaid is ranked TE5 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE15 at the median, TE5 - TE27 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE37 in the middle 80%.
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TE6 Sam LaPortaTE16Sam LaPorta is ranked TE6 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE16 at the median, TE6 - TE27 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE37 in the middle 80%.
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TE7 Isaiah LikelyTE16Isaiah Likely is ranked TE7 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE16 at the median, TE6 - TE29 in the middle half, and TE2 - TE41 in the middle 80%.
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TE8 Tyler WarrenTE20Tyler Warren is ranked TE8 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE20 at the median, TE7 - TE32 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE45 in the middle 80%.
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TE9 George KittleTE21George Kittle is ranked TE9 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE21 at the median, TE7 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE3 - TE48 in the middle 80%.
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TE10 Mark AndrewsTE22Mark Andrews is ranked TE10 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE22 at the median, TE9 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE47 in the middle 80%.
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TE11 Juwan JohnsonTE24Juwan Johnson is ranked TE11 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE10 - TE38 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE55 in the middle 80%.
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TE12 Tucker KraftTE23Tucker Kraft is ranked TE12 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE23 at the median, TE11 - TE34 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE45 in the middle 80%.
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TE13 Terrance FergusonTE26Terrance Ferguson is ranked TE13 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE11 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE4 - TE57 in the middle 80%.
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TE14 Harold Fannin Jr.TE24Harold Fannin Jr. is ranked TE14 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE11 - TE36 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE50 in the middle 80%.
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TE15 Hunter HenryTE24Hunter Henry is ranked TE15 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE24 at the median, TE10 - TE35 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE47 in the middle 80%.
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TE16 T.J. HockensonTE26T.J. Hockenson is ranked TE16 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE26 at the median, TE11 - TE39 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE52 in the middle 80%.
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TE17 Pat FreiermuthTE25Pat Freiermuth is ranked TE17 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE25 at the median, TE10 - TE37 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE51 in the middle 80%.
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TE18 Colston LovelandTE27Colston Loveland is ranked TE18 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE27 at the median, TE13 - TE40 in the middle half, and TE5 - TE55 in the middle 80%.
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TE19 Jake FergusonTE28Jake Ferguson is ranked TE19 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE13 - TE41 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE56 in the middle 80%.
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TE20 Kenyon SadiqTE29Kenyon Sadiq is ranked TE20 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE29 at the median, TE13 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE57 in the middle 80%.
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TE21 Stone SmarttTE31Stone Smartt is ranked TE21 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE31 at the median, TE14 - TE49 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE68 in the middle 80%.
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TE22 Kyle PittsTE28Kyle Pitts is ranked TE22 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE28 at the median, TE15 - TE39 in the middle half, and TE6 - TE52 in the middle 80%.
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TE23 Cade OttonTE30Cade Otton is ranked TE23 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE30 at the median, TE16 - TE45 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE60 in the middle 80%.
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TE24 Michael MayerTE30Michael Mayer is ranked TE24 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE30 at the median, TE16 - TE43 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE58 in the middle 80%.
Show TE25 - TE36
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TE25 Mike GesickiTE33Mike Gesicki is ranked TE25 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE33 at the median, TE18 - TE50 in the middle half, and TE7 - TE66 in the middle 80%.
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TE26 Gunnar HelmTE34Gunnar Helm is ranked TE26 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE34 at the median, TE20 - TE49 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE65 in the middle 80%.
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TE27 Tommy TrembleTE37Tommy Tremble is ranked TE27 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE37 at the median, TE22 - TE53 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE69 in the middle 80%.
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TE28 Brenton StrangeTE36Brenton Strange is ranked TE28 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE36 at the median, TE23 - TE51 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE66 in the middle 80%.
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TE29 Chig OkonkwoTE40Chig Okonkwo is ranked TE29 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE24 - TE61 in the middle half, and TE9 - TE83 in the middle 80%.
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TE30 Oronde Gadsden IITE39Oronde Gadsden II is ranked TE30 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE39 at the median, TE25 - TE56 in the middle half, and TE10 - TE74 in the middle 80%.
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TE31 Darren WallerTE40Darren Waller is ranked TE31 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE24 - TE57 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE75 in the middle 80%.
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TE32 Greg DulcichTE40Greg Dulcich is ranked TE32 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE26 - TE57 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE73 in the middle 80%.
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TE33 Evan EngramTE40Evan Engram is ranked TE33 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE40 at the median, TE25 - TE57 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE74 in the middle 80%.
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TE34 Chris MyarickTE44Chris Myarick is ranked TE34 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE44 at the median, TE25 - TE66 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE88 in the middle 80%.
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TE35 AJ BarnerTE44AJ Barner is ranked TE35 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE44 at the median, TE24 - TE62 in the middle half, and TE11 - TE80 in the middle 80%.
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TE36 Luke SchoonmakerTE44Luke Schoonmaker is ranked TE36 on projected fantasy points. Across the simulated weeks he finishes TE44 at the median, TE27 - TE63 in the middle half, and TE12 - TE83 in the middle 80%.
Simulated positional finish. The scale is compressed to the right, so equal distances are not equal numbers of places.
The axis compresses lower-ranked finishes so the top of the board stays readable. Use the printed ranges for exact finish positions.
How these are made
This board was built from 2026 usage for 67% of the board, draft position for 100%, an outside projection for 59%, sportsbook props for 11%, an official status for 81%, over 4,000 simulated weeks. The projection and the odds are both unconditional: for a player carrying an official Questionable or Doubtful, the weeks he sits are in the average and in the odds. Ranks follow projected points for Half PPR, 1QB.
Availability is a model input: players ruled out, inactive, on a reserve list or without a game are left off the weekly board, and an official Questionable or Doubtful is simulated as playing 71% and 7% of the time. Status evidence was captured September 24, 2026 22:48 UTC. Model rankings-v1.4.0, board captured 2026-09-24.
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.