LAC · Bye 7
Kimani Vidal
LMD RB95 for Week 3 · 2.0 projected Half PPR points
In season
Week 3 fantasy ranking
We project 2.0 points this week, RB95. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 0% · Top 24: 2% of simulated weeks.
Week 3
RB95
302nd by projected points
Projected
2.0
week 3, Half PPR
Top 12
0%
Top 3: 0% · Top 24: 2% at RB
Movement
NEW
Not ranked at RB in Week 2
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+1.81 pts
- Recent usage & efficiencyLimited data
- Slight negative-0.30 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight negative-0.50 pts
- Betting markets
- No signal
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Half PPR scoring · Updated September 22, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
No completed game has both a pregame projection and a published result yet.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | vs ARI | 2.1 | Pending | — |
| Wk 2 | — | — | 0.0 | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Kimani Vidal #182 in 1QB and #182 in Superflex, RB49 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#182
RB49 · tier 41 · of 297
Superflex
#182
RB49 · tier 34 · of 303
- Last season 109.9 pts 8.5 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 68% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 2 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 10.7 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 5% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
15.08
pick 175.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
15.08
half of simulations take him by pick 176
Draft range
15.04 - 15.12
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in 1,923 of them
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 15.08 in 92% of simulations
Pick 176 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
The middle half of simulations take him between 15.06 and 15.10.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 15.06 | 96% |
| 15.07 | 94% |
| 15.08 | 92% |
| 15.09 | 90% |
| 15.10 | 87% |
| 15.11 | 85% |
| 15.12 | 83% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 15.03 | <1% | 59 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.04 | 1% | 109 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.05 | 2% | 182 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.06 | 2% | 179 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.07 | 2% | 232 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.08 | 2% | 218 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.09 | 2% | 223 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.10 | 2% | 213 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.11 | 2% | 213 of 10000 simulations |
| 15.12 | 2% | 245 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 1923 simulations in which Kimani Vidal was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Jalen Coker WR · CAR 3%
- Dylan Sampson RB · CLE 3%
- Omar Cooper Jr. WR · NYJ 3%
- Alvin Kamara RB · NO 3%
Usually taken just after
- Dylan Sampson RB · CLE 3%
- C.J. Stroud QB · HOU 2%
- AJ Barner TE · SEA 2%
- Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Half PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kimani Vidal was selected in 1923 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of September 17, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- September 17, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-09-17)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.