ATL · Bye 11
Kyle Pitts
LMD TE29 for Week 4 · 6.6 projected Full PPR points · TE31 rest of season
Regular season
Week 4 and rest of season fantasy rankings
We project 6.6 points this week, TE29. Top 3: 2% · Top 12: 17% · Top 24: 34% of simulated weeks. Down 7 since Week 3.
Week 4
TE29
162nd by projected points
Rest of season
TE31
145th by projected points
Projected
6.6
week 4, Full PPR
Top 12
17%
Top 3: 2% · Top 24: 34% at TE
Movement
↓ 7
TE22 in Week 3, TE29 now
Should you start Kyle Pitts in Week 4?
Bench
Not in a standard 12-team league. LMD ranks Kyle Pitts TE29 for Week 4, outside the TE12 starter line and outside the range this reading covers. He finishes inside TE12 in 17% of simulated weeks.
The starter line is a standard 12-team lineup's, and is the line LMD's weekly accuracy review grades this board against.
- Draft / market prior
- Positive+1.12 pts
- Recent usage & efficiency
- Negative-1.63 pts
- AvailabilityAvailable
- Neutral0.00 pts
- Outside projection
- Slight positive+0.20 pts
- Betting markets
- Slight positive+0.16 pts
Why isn’t matchup a separate factor?
How to read
- Full model minus the model without each factor.
- Effects are not additive or changes in rank.
- Recent data includes its effect on blending weights.
- A range note means a factor moved the spread and not the expected points.
Full PPR scoring · Updated October 4, 2026
LMD Rankings are produced by Let's Mock Draft's own statistical and market model. They are not analyst rankings: consensus boards are not an input, and nothing is edited by hand.
Updates
Recent updates
-
NFC Notes: Chris Godwin, Kyle Pitts, Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers
yardbarker.com ·
-
Dirty Birds Dispatch: Falcons need to get Kyle Pitts going in Domecoming
ajc.com ·
-
Week 4 WR/TE Target Report: Michael Wilson Gets a Fantasy Football Value Boost While Kyle Pitts Becomes Droppable
Yahoo Sports ·
-
Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. has two catches for 20 yards through three games.
Sports Illustrated ·
-
Week 4 drop candidates: Show the door to Drake Maye, Jadarian Price and Kyle Pitts
The New York Times ·
Headlines from other publishers, discovered automatically and matched to Kyle Pitts by name -- we did not write these and we do not host them, and each one opens at the publisher who did.
Season performance
Performance vs. projection
Over 3 completed games Kyle Pitts has averaged -6.8 points a game against what we projected before kickoff.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | @ PIT | 9.6 | 0.0 | -9.6 |
| Wk 2 | vs CAR | 7.3 | 2.5 | -4.8 |
| Wk 3 | @ GB | 7.5 | 1.5 | -6.0 |
| Wk 4 | @ NO | 6.6 | — | — |
Each week's projection is the last one Let's Mock Draft published before that game kicked off, recorded at the time and never recalculated afterwards. The shaded band is the middle 80% of that week's simulated outcomes. Actual points are scored from official statistics under the scoring rule selected above.
Draft Return
How he compares with his draft price
The draft market had him at TE6. For the rest of the season LMD has him 25 spots lower, at TE31.
Preseason market: TE6 · ADP 80.8
Season to date
Ranking what he has actually scored needs every player's season, and that board is not published yet.
Rest of season
TE31 −25
LMD has him 25 spots lower than his TE6 draft price.
Week 4
TE29 −23
LMD has him 23 spots lower than his TE6 draft price.
Full PPR scoring · benchmark September 9, 2026
Season to date is what he has actually scored, ranked among his position. Rest of season and this week are LMD's current expectations rather than results. All three are compared with where the draft market had him before the season started.
TE6 is where Fantasy Football Calculator had him on September 9, 2026, the last board taken before the season's first kickoff. Later boards absorb what has happened since, so they are a current market rather than a draft price.
Regular season
Why LMD has him here
We project 88.9 points this season, TE31. Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 21% of simulated seasons. That is 6.6 a game over 14 remaining games.
Per game
6.6 / game
Over 14 remaining game(s)
Finishing odds
Top 3: 0% · Top 12: 1% · Top 24: 21%
Share of simulated seasons finishing inside that place at TE
Market input
thin
Thin market coverage: few venues or markets priced this player.
LMD Rankings, rankings-v1.4.1. Inputs: Ball Don't Lie (fantasy market, player status, projections); PropLine (player props). · 2026 Rest of season board updated October 4, 2026
Dynasty
Long-term value
LMD's dynasty model has Kyle Pitts #70 in 1QB and #70 in Superflex, TE6 at his position. Age 25.
1QB
#70
TE6 · tier 18 · of 297
Superflex
#70
TE6 · tier 14 · of 303
- Last season 166.8 pts 9.8 per game, half-PPR scoring, in the games he played.
- Availability 100% Share of his team's games he played over the seasons the model reads.
- History 3 seasons Seasons of production the model read; more history is weighed more confidently.
- Touches 5.8 / game Carries plus receptions per game; 19% of his team's targets.
LMD dynasty model 1.2.0: a 3-season projection from observed NFL statistics, priced above a lineup's replacement level. Our own ranking, not an ADP, a consensus or a market price. Updated September 2026.
Draft season Draft position and availability
ADP, draft range, availability at a pick and who goes around him, measured over 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts.
Simulated draft position
Where he goes
Simulation average
7.07
pick 78.9 overall, averaged over every simulated draft
Median pick
7.07
half of simulations take him by pick 79
Draft range
6.03 - 8.10
the middle 80% of simulations (P10-P90)
Simulations
10,000
drafted in every one
Filters
League format
Availability
Odds he reaches your pick
Available at 7.07 in 50% of simulations
Pick 79 overall in a 12-team draft · 10,000 simulations
From draft slot 7, the same seat picks again at 8.06, where he is available in 20% of simulations.
Slot 7's remaining turns: 7.07 50% · 8.06 20% · 9.07 3% · 10.06 <1% · 11.07 0%
The middle half of simulations take him between 6.10 and 8.03.
| Pick | Available |
|---|---|
| 7.05 | 57% |
| 7.06 | 54% |
| 7.07 | 50% |
| 7.08 | 47% |
| 7.09 | 45% |
| 7.10 | 42% |
| 7.11 | 38% |
| 7.12 | 36% |
| 8.01 | 33% |
| 8.02 | 30% |
| 8.03 | 27% |
| 8.04 | 25% |
| 8.05 | 22% |
| 8.06 | 20% |
| 8.07 | 18% |
Distribution
Draft position distribution
| Pick | Share of simulations | Count |
|---|---|---|
| 6.03-6.04 | 4% | 393 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.05-6.06 | 4% | 368 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.07-6.08 | 4% | 441 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.09-6.10 | 5% | 458 of 10000 simulations |
| 6.11-6.12 | 5% | 527 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.01-7.02 | 6% | 561 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.03-7.04 | 6% | 586 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.05-7.06 | 7% | 659 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.07-7.08 | 6% | 585 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.09-7.10 | 6% | 622 of 10000 simulations |
| 7.11-7.12 | 6% | 562 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.01-8.02 | 5% | 538 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.03-8.04 | 5% | 513 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.05-8.06 | 5% | 459 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.07-8.08 | 4% | 406 of 10000 simulations |
| 8.09-8.10 | 4% | 361 of 10000 simulations |
Draft context
Who goes around him
Measured over the 10000 simulations in which Kyle Pitts was drafted.
Usually taken just before
- Tucker Kraft TE · GB 3%
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 3%
- Jalen Hurts QB · PHI 3%
- Kyle Monangai RB · CHI 2%
Usually taken just after
- Tucker Kraft TE · GB 3%
- Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR 3%
- Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX 3%
- Jadarian Price RB · SEA 2%
Methodology
How this is measured
Every figure on this page comes from a Monte Carlo batch of 10,000 simulated 12-team Full PPR 1QB drafts, each one played out pick by pick by the same simulated managers that fill an empty seat in a live room.
Kyle Pitts was selected in 10000 of those 10000 drafts. Every probability here rests on that count.
Each player's expected draft position starts from Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP as of October 1, 2026; the simulated managers move him from there. Players it does not price keep a price inferred from our own rankings.
A reach or a fall on this page is measured against Fantasy Football Calculator's aggregate ADP where it prices a player, and against a price inferred from our own rankings where it does not.
- Simulation model
- simulation-v1.2
- Generated
- October 1, 2026
- Player dataset
- nflverse-2026@8a41b71bb222a352
- Baseline
- mixed
- Market prior
- ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator (2026-10-01)
Next
Draft it yourself
Draft against the same simulated managers that produced these numbers.